The Long Shot Thread

Copied from the Gold Cup thread:

I took another ante-post bet for the Gold Cup this evening, prompted by the Bryony Frost debate.

Saphir Du Rheu 66/1 ew NRNB & BOG

I backed him in the Gold Cup last year as well as in the National. He used Cheltenham as a prep run for Aintree last season and I wonder if maybe they think he might have gone very close if they'd trained him seriously for it. The fact that they've now declared he won't go for the National and that Sam T-D will ride means he's still regarded as the stable's best staying chaser. If he turns up on the day he'll be no more than 33/1. If he doesn't, no harm done.
 
Used the Gold Cup as a prep? :lol: Where did you get that idea from? His main target last year was the Gold Cup not the National

They were in 2 minds about Aintree due to his jumping but he was well in on his new rating so they threw caution to the wind and ran him.

As you know he fell and will never go to Aintree again according to his owner

Last year he had absolutely hacked up at Kelso and he was as fit as a fiddle for the Gold Cup running the best race of his life.

He hasn't seen a racecourse this year and looks likely to miss Kelso and he's not a horse you could say runs well when fresh so obviously they are having major problems getting him fit

Thank your lucky stars it's NRNB as you have a chance of getting your money back.

The chances of him running are somewhere between nil to zero..........missing Kelso and having a racecourse gallop? Would be the first in history to pull that off
 
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They say that they are using the gold cup as a prep race for the national with BLACKLION but i cant see the logic in that.
I think Blacklion is a good ew bet for the gold cup and i cant fancy him for the national where last year he weakened into 4th and this year will probably have 10lb more.
If the gold cup is a prep race,what are they going to do,hunt him round at the back or give him a hard race.
The way he was backed off the boards last time at aintree makes me think hes better than just a good hcapper.
Ive took 33s nrnb anyway.
 
As long as you have the concession you're fine with that, Outsider.

If I remember correctly, there was a bit of a discussion on here a year or two back when I suggested something would use a big race as prep for an arguably smaller race (might have been the Gold Cup ahead of the National for SDR, might have been the Hennessy ahead of something else, can't remember exactly) but I do believe it happens and I do believe in the logic of it.

In the better race you can run one at 90% fit and end up buried. When you get to the main target 100% fit and maybe full of milkshake it's a different ball game, and since it's a lesser race it's more likely to win.

Maybe Sam T-D felt the horse didn't really take to the fences at Aintree. Remember too, last year the National was worth nearly a quarter of a mill more than the Gold Cup yet it's 'only' a handicap.

Blaklion almost certainly can't win a Gold Cup but the National is a handicap and in theory he should have the same chance as everything else. (No patronising intended.) I also half suspect that if Blaklion had a really serious chance in the Gold Cup, Paul Nicholls wouldn't stand in Sam T-D's way of riding the horse for his dad. But maybe that's just the romantic wishful thinker in me.
 
Couldn't have him then (though he ran better than I expected), DO, and can't have him now.

Unless he gets a prep, he'll go to the Gold Cup both first-time-out and on the back of a fall - not exactly the profile I'd be wanting to get onside, and I think there are better options amongst the outers. BTW, you can back him at 100/1 with Sporting, and 80/1 with Ladbrokes, if you're inclined to have another value bet. :cool:
 
Thanks, GH. I took the 66/1 due to the concessions.

I think he might be going to Kelso first, as he did last season.

He was a 170+ novice and ran to 165+ when just out for a gallop last season. I can't imagine many rank outsiders with that kind of potential but obviously it's not as straightforward as that.

As an aside - and maybe as a Timeform fan you can confirm - the brother (a fan of the Horses to Follow book) was on the phone the other night to say Timeform rate Bristol De Mai a lot better than his finishing position in last year's Gold Cup. He said something about ground lost through the race compounded by losing at least ten lengths with a mistake at the last? If so, maybe he'll be better at the track this time around. He's still a qualifying price for this thread so I might have another look.

I'm currently reviewing the festival recordings. I'm halfway through the Tuesday. I still think the Ultima is brilliant form but I did notice last night that SFP was a lot closer through the race than I remembered, never more than about eight lengths off the leaders. I also think he got an over-confident ride and would have won in another few strides. He might have won anyway with a couple of more fluent jumps than he produced. I'm now not so sure he was trying 100% in the Hennessy/Ladbroke or at Ascot, now that I see how far behind he was in both those races.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thanks, GH. I took the 66/1 due to the concessions.

I think he might be going to Kelso first, as he did last season.

He was a 170+ novice and ran to 165+ when just out for a gallop last season. I can't imagine many rank outsiders with that kind of potential but obviously it's not as straightforward as that.

As an aside - and maybe as a Timeform fan you can confirm - the brother (a fan of the Horses to Follow book) was on the phone the other night to say Timeform rate Bristol De Mai a lot better than his finishing position in last year's Gold Cup. He said something about ground lost through the race compounded by losing at least ten lengths with a mistake at the last? If so, maybe he'll be better at the track this time around. He's still a qualifying price for this thread so I might have another look.

I'm currently reviewing the festival recordings. I'm halfway through the Tuesday. I still think the Ultima is brilliant form but I did notice last night that SFP was a lot closer through the race than I remembered, never more than about eight lengths off the leaders. I also think he got an over-confident ride and would have won in another few strides. He might have won anyway with a couple of more fluent jumps than he produced. I'm now not so sure he was trying 100% in the Hennessy/Ladbroke or at Ascot, now that I see how far behind he was in both those races.
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Chasers & Hurdlers rated SDR c161 last season.

They rated BDM c159 last season. There's no essay (so they don't give a viewpoint in GC performance), and the only comments were that he goes on heavy, and he usually travels strongly/up with pace.

FWIW, I reckon BDM will always look to go quite well, as he races prominently, and jumps accurately.......but he gets found-out on quicker ground. He is essentially one-paced, which is generally no issue in deep-ground, but he cannot quicken with the opposition on spring-ground. Last season's Gold Cup, and to a lesser extent, this season's KG, would tend to bear that out. I think this, more than the mistake at the last, was largely responsible for his finishing position in the Gold Cup.
 
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Cheers, GH. I've texted the brother to ask him to phone me when he gets a chance to dictate the Timeform view and I'll post it here. He read it out to me the other night.

I think the Fifty to Follow book includes the detailed analyses of the big races in essay form, as they would have appeared in the old Perspective.
 
Outsider said:
They say that they are using the gold cup as a prep race for the national with BLACKLION but i cant see the logic in that.
I think Blacklion is a good ew bet for the gold cup and i cant fancy him for the national where last year he weakened into 4th and this year will probably have 10lb more.
If the gold cup is a prep race,what are they going to do,hunt him round at the back or give him a hard race.
The way he was backed off the boards last time at aintree makes me think hes better than just a good hcapper.
Ive took 33s nrnb anyway.
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Absolutely agree with this (re-Gold cup chance v Aintree chance ) as I've already posted somewhere on the forum. I think NTD just has BDM on his brain as a world beater or at least he did do before the KG which is why he's overlooking Blaklion or was. Personally I'd have run Blaklion in the Cotswolds and found out where he was at. The plan prior to Christmas was to go to Haydock again and then onto the National I haven't seen anything since. Where have you read they plan to use the Gold cup as a prep ? I wouldn't read too much into that use of the word prep either he'll be fit enough to do himself justice if turning up. If you've got 33's NRNB that's a good bet I took some 25's myself which was the best I could get at the time and also had a bet earlier on at 40's without the protection.

NTD said after the Becher that BL only had to find 8 lengths to win the National and under a more restrained ride that was possible which would of made perfect sense apart from the fact he's been whacked up to 161 9lb's higher than last year. I thought it was a gut reaction from NTD at the time talking without thinking and thought once the dust settled and that BDM got his colours lowered in the KG that he'd come to his senses and see the Gold Cup as the better option.
 
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National weights are released in early/mid-February. Any trainer who has a horse with a serious chance, is unlikely to run him over fences beforehand, which would very-likely rule Blaklion out of the Cotswold Chase.

FWIW, as much as I'm not a huge fan of NTD, I think Blaklion has a tremendous chance at Aintree.
 
I'd agree GH that is the way NTD will go. However, he's rated 161 now yes he'd go up again if he won the Cotswolds but how much more could he go up before he'd be a serious contender for the GC ? If he got beat in the Cotswolds the handicapper may cut him some slack if he won it impressively enough to go up in the weights then what ? An 8lb rise would see him having run to 169 over the Gold Cup CD..who in there right minds would not let him take his chance ? He's only nine ? He'd probably get one shot at the Gold cup being this year and if he fails its not beyond the realms that he could have another 3 attempts in the National in years to come.
 
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He can run in the Gold Cup without being penalised for Aintree. It's only running before the weights are out that is the issue.

I think that's how he will play it with Blaklion. Run in the Gold Cup on merit (but with low expectations).......as it's in the sweet-spot as a prep-date for Aintree (where he can have high expectations, regardless of the Gold Cup finishing-position)
 
Hi Danny,i went into a w.hills shop to get some of that 40/1 but they had changed it that morning to 33s nrnb.

Surely Blacklion will be topweight in the national what with the 9lb rise plus phil smiths aintree factor added in.
 
Grasshopper said:
He can run in the Gold Cup without being penalised for Aintree. It's only running before the weights are out that is the issue.

I think that's how he will play it with Blaklion. Run in the Gold Cup on merit (but with low expectations).......as it's in the sweet-spot as a prep-date for Aintree (where he can have high expectations, regardless of the Gold Cup finishing-position)
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Think your right mate I'll just be happy if he lines up in the GC as he's not my main bet but the more big priced yaks I have running for me the better. As my Gold cup approach this year is throw enough **** and hope something sticks :)
 
Outsider said:
Hi Danny,i went into a w.hills shop to get some of that 40/1 but they had changed it that morning to 33s nrnb.

Surely Blacklion will be topweight in the national what with the 9lb rise plus phil smiths aintree factor added in.
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It was in the racing post cheltenham news site where it said blacklion was having a prep race in the gold cup.
 
tiggers1972 said:
Balklion looked a non stayer in the National last year, very similar to Big Fella Thanks.
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His run last year appears to have split opinion.

I'm in your camp tiggers but the brother puts him in the same camp as Hedgehunter's first attempt in so far as he thought he ran with the choke out most of the way and didn't get home for that reason. More amenable to restraint the following year HH hacked up and the brother cleaned up (for him!).

NTD appears to be of the opinion that he went for home too soon last year and, if held on to for longer, can get home better. That's probably true but I can't see him being handicapped to have any serious chance.

If people can check last year's race, look how effortlessly OFA got into the race from off the pace, quite a rare feat in a modern National, and looks at how a closely grouped field turning for home were strung out at the line. I would have put OFA in the Gold Cup with a chance after that performance.

There's some slight chance, I suppose, that there might be another OFA lurking, waiting to put up a Warwick Classic type of performance ahead of getting in off a favourable weight/rating.

Right now, though, Blaklion just wouldn't be on my radar for the race.

But I reserve the right to change my mind :cool:
 
Desert Orchid said:
His run last year appears to have split opinion.

I'm in your camp tiggers but the brother puts him in the same camp as Hedgehunter's first attempt in so far as he thought he ran with the choke out most of the way and didn't get home for that reason. More amenable to restraint the following year HH hacked up and the brother cleaned up (for him!).

NTD appears to be of the opinion that he went for home too soon last year and, if held on to for longer, can get home better. That's probably true but I can't see him being handicapped to have any serious chance.

If people can check last year's race, look how effortlessly OFA got into the race from off the pace, quite a rare feat in a modern National, and looks at how a closely grouped field turning for home were strung out at the line. I would have put OFA in the Gold Cup with a chance after that performance.

There's some slight chance, I suppose, that there might be another OFA lurking, waiting to put up a Warwick Classic type of performance ahead of getting in off a favourable weight/rating.

Right now, though, Blaklion just wouldn't be on my radar for the race.

But I reserve the right to change my mind :cool:
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Totally agree. Thats why ive done him in the gold cup,..get in .
 
Marble said:
We'll see tomorrow if De Dani's Bach is declared on Wednesday at Fairyhouse at 2M4F in the 1:25. The drop in distance may make sense judging by her last run, but a right handed track again? However, Fairyhouse is much more galloping & testing place so might suit her more than 3 miles at Musselburgh. She will run off a mark of 80 (8 pound lower than her U.K mark) which is excellent. She'd be worth an each way as she showed some ability the last day.
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She gets in off the bottom weight on a mark of 80. The ground should be heavy enough, but that's the same for all of them. I feel the distance of 2m4f, on a galloping, testing track will be more to her liking. The jumping-left issue could have been down to not having done much racing the past 12 months or so. This may not be as big an impediment as first seemed the case.
 
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Don't read too much into the marks difference between the UK and Ireland. The Irish are on average about 6lbs lower than in the UK (up to something like 130) so maybe 2lbs at best better, probably accounted for by being dropped for that last run. In other words she might still only be 6lbs lower, ie the norm.

Good luck. Not my kind of race so I'll check the result later and hope to see you've won.
 
I've added to my Cheltenham a/p portfolio this morning.

I've taken 33/1 Debuchet (NRNB/BOG, so no harm done) for the Supreme.

I think the Bumper form looks good. Debuchet was backed on the day and it's four times the price of the Henderson horse (Claimetc) which he beat.

But I haven't gone into any form in detail yet.
 
Cheers, Maurice. I know you dont get involved often in these races. I won't be betting too much, but I will definitely stick her in tomorrows each Trixie! She's a decent each way chance.
 
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Marble said:
She gets in off the bottom weight on a mark of 80. The ground should be heavy enough, but that's the same for all of them. I feel the distance of 2m4f, on a galloping, testing track will be more to her liking. The jumping-left issue could have been down to not having done much racing the past 12 months or so. This may not be as big an impediment as first seemed the case.
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De Danu's Bach 50/1 for that race tomorrow 1/4 the odds 4 places.

Sent from my EVA-L09 using Tapatalk
 
Yep......... A short priced jolly in the line-up, so looks as if everything-else is playing for places, including De Danu's Bach, but I don't mind taking 12.5 / 1, that she runs a place.
 
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