The Long Shot Thread

If you're ruling out the chance that she isn't going to win you're only getting 6.25/1 that she places.

Might be an idea to check for place-only odds. You might get 10/1 or better that way.
 
Whilst I'd never take a view that something is rock solid and that everything else is playing for places just because its a short price as short priced horses get turned over every day. Occasionally you do end up with a situation where you fancy one strong e/w but think the favourite will win. As Des suggests a place bet only is the better option but I'd also suggest that in that situation its always a worth playing the forecast or the exacta which ever you prefer.
 
Copied from the Champion Hurdle thread in the light of the entries being published:

The one that caught my eye in that list is Cliffs Of Dover for Nicholls.

Considering he trains the likes of Old Guard, a horse not far off 160, and didn't even enter him for the race, as well as so many other decent hurdlers in the stable, it's eyecatching - to me at any rate! - that he's entered the 145-rated Cliffs Of Dover who has been off for a full year.

Nicholls presumably rates him a 160+ hurdler so I've taken him ante-post for the Betfair Hurdle at prices in the 30s. He might not get there but if he turns up on the day it's unlikely he'll be that kind of price.
Click to expand...
 
Danny said:
I've tried another one of these cheeky e/w doubles but this time with the protection of NRNB.

Again it takes a bit of a leap of faith and neither selection would be top of my list as likely winners of their respective races but in terms of Value and trying to sneak the place money they might stand a chance.

Gold Cup Coneygree 40/1 NRNB

Well he looks pretty much finished in truth after pulling up on his last 2 starts. If you believe the Bradstocks whether its breathing ops,back problems or overreaches they believe they have genuine excuses for the horse. I'm not sure how much I believe but he obviously has problems. What happens between now and then ? Well perhaps he'll takes in the Denman Chase at Newbury Or Maybe the Cotswolds. He'd either run well and it would be considered a step in the right direction towards the Gold Cup or he runs awfully gets pulled up and more than likely retired in which case we get refunded. The other option maybe that he goes straight there and you pays your money you take your chance. It was only last Spring that he'd run Djackadam and Gold cup winner Sizing John very close at Punchestown after being Awol for most of the season and it could be said if he hadn't messed up the second last he'd have probably gone closer or maybe even beat them so its not like he can't go fairly well fresh. Yes his last 2 runs looked like it was game over but tht said is it any worse than the last runs of Sizing John, Our Duke , Whisper or Yorkhill ? Should it for some reason take more forgiving ?

I personally take the view that he is probably going to struggle to make a come back but if he shows that in a prep then as said its a refund if he runs o.k or shows any signs of the green shoots of recovery then he certainly won't be a 40/1 shot against a whole host of horses with questions still to answer.

Champion Hurdle Ch'Tibello 33/1 NRNB

I have to admit that I did try to get this bet at 22's in the without BD market but they wouldn't accept a double I have allowed myself a single at that that price (which still counts as a selection for the long shot thread).

Outside of BD who looks fairly solid to my mind we have a similar situation to the KG.

Faugheen some doubts about turning up
Melon probably in
Yorkhill entered for everything barring Miss World
MTOY yup
Defi yup
Min probably not
Apples jade probably not
Wicklow Brave and Mick jazz maybe but not exactly **** your pants scary
The new one- stayers?


Ch'tebello is next up. Without going too much into it two of the main rivals there (Melon and My tent) he met at Cheltenham fto this season he actually had travelled into the race as well as anything was actually taking quite a pull most the way around. As they turned for home he looked to be in with a winning chance travelling as well as anything, half way up the straight he got hampered and I think this cost him valuable lengths and momentum. Although the others pulled away over the last hurdle he did start to fight back right at the finish. Considering also that he'd been missing since February all things considered I think he's a fair price to reverse with the front few especially if getting a stronger pace to go at. There might be other dangers to emerge through the Handicap route or something else that pops up to ruin the party but against the current likely contenders I think he has more than a punchers chance of framing. Just a shame really that I couldn't play the double without BD as he does look fairly solid as odds on pokes go.


£10e/w double the standard stake for these.
Click to expand...


Looks a tough day to find a long shot for tomorrow I've been through the Haydock and Ascot cards for tomorrow and came up with zilch. However thought I'd give this a mention as Ch'tibello lines up for the Champion Hurdle trial at Haydock tomorrow should the meeting go ahead. Since posting CT has gone 40/1 in places NRNB and I've included him in a few more smaller e/w doubles and multi's. Whilst I expect him to win tomorrow I doubt the race will have little bearing on how he performs in the big one which will be a totally different test. If he wins well as I'd expect he will do then he might shorten up a bit but not dramatically. I've actually had a decent bet on him for tomorrow at 3's under ante-post rules as I expected Call me Lord wouldn't show. Its a rare event that I back one at short odds and rarer than hens teeth that I win when I do. So perhaps I've put the mockers on it but he'll cover about half of my ante-post layout for the festival so far if he does oblige, fingers crossed. I think he'd be my first winner at a price under 5/1 since James Bowen was just a thought in his old mans ball bag so it my go a way to curing my aversion to backing short priced beasts which is a problem I have to get over at some point.

Be interested to see if what anyone else can find at these meets as I'm clueless to find a 20/1 + !
 
I do have a 20/1 shot for tomorrow but I'll post it once the money's on.

I also took Ch'tibello for the Champion Hurdle. From my preview of tomorrow's racing:

I don’t want to risk backing Ch’tibello in this with the conditions as they are so I’m leaving the race alone. It may be that Clyne goes best but I’d be disappointed if he proved good enough to win a Champion Hurdle trial. I’ve backed Ch’tibello, though, for the Champion Hurdle itself at 70 on the exchange and ew at 33/1 (NRNB & BOG) as I don’t believe he was off an inch last time yet arguably put up a career best. I suspect he’s a 165+ horse waiting to happen and that would have been good enough for second in last season’s race.
Click to expand...
There has to be a good chance Haydock won't beat the weather, though.
 
Last edited:
I've got one for today.

Dragon Tattoo - 8.45 Chelmsford - 25/1.

Don't get me wrong this filly looks moderate based on her handicap runs to date but I like her chance today. Down to a mark of 50 with the excellent Nicola Currie taking 5 more off.

That said she horse must up her game. I'm interested in the form of the run behind Augenblick at Newcastle back in November. Beaten 5l or so with the winner now rated 80. The Tutty's horse that finished 2l ahead now rated 68 and the Easterby horse just behind ran fairly at York and has a mark of 65.

Obviously a fair bit of guesswork with the marks of these inexperienced horses but if the handicapper has them in the right ball park then Dragon Tattoo sure ran to something resembling 65 that day. Another run to that sort of level gives her a great chance here.

Bit encouraged that Hugo Palmer is continuing with her for one of his early supporting owners. I just think 25s a fair stab and if we see a drift then one to take a chance on.
 
I haven't checked the prices since about 10am so I hope these are still available:

Asc 2.25 - Caid Du Lin 20/1 - Not my main bet in the race but worth a saver. I don’t know much about the jockey but from 28 rides for Newland he’s won 6, been second 6 times, third 3 times and fourth twice. That sounds okay to me and if he’s worth half his claim he can make the horse competitive.

Hay 3.15 - Fine Rightly 25/1 - It's a bit risky but it is my main bet in the race. He stays, acts well in the ground and now seems very well handicapped on his best form. As recently as November he was beaten only 2½ lengths behind the 152-rated Clarcam in the Fortria in receipt of 3lbs over just two miles and he won a Grade 3 at Cork in bottomless ground the season before. His peak OR has been 152 so he’s been given a chance here.

Hay 3.15 - Ptit Zig 40/1 - Not my main bet in the race but Silsol ran well for the yard off a hurdling campaign in the Welsh National so Ptit Zig might be well handicapped over fences based on his hurdling ability.
 
Haydock 4.15 Donnas Diamond 20/1 StanJames - a good 4th over c/d/& going l/t/o in a better race - now 4lb lower. However hasn't raced for over a year.
 
Fine Rightly has winning form in soft at 3m+ so I really expected him to stay on there. Bar one mistake eight out he jumped beautifully but it did look for all the world that he was going to win easily. I'm very disappointed but I was never really happy that he was ridden from so far back in that ground. I thought for most of the last mile he might win despite that.
 
Last edited:
Fvckin' missed it!! How on earth did I do that?

Brilliant, Chef. Many congratulations and another belter for the thread.

Just checked. I was out shovelling snow for a while earlier. That fvckin' snow has cost me plenty!
 
Last edited:
It was that far back to the rest I had a bit of a wait to see if I'd had it right off unfortunately not but has still put me up on a day when I was down.

Apollo Creed (8)
Bruichladdich (7)
Donna's Diamond (4)
Southfield Royale (3)
Tote Trifecta, 24 bets * £0.50

Damn you Shelford, you boat !
 
Last edited:
DanB88 said:
I've got one for today.

Dragon Tattoo - 8.45 Chelmsford - 25/1.

Don't get me wrong this filly looks moderate based on her handicap runs to date but I like her chance today. Down to a mark of 50 with the excellent Nicola Currie taking 5 more off.

That said she horse must up her game. I'm interested in the form of the run behind Augenblick at Newcastle back in November. Beaten 5l or so with the winner now rated 80. The Tutty's horse that finished 2l ahead now rated 68 and the Easterby horse just behind ran fairly at York and has a mark of 65.

Obviously a fair bit of guesswork with the marks of these inexperienced horses but if the handicapper has them in the right ball park then Dragon Tattoo sure ran to something resembling 65 that day. Another run to that sort of level gives her a great chance here.

Bit encouraged that Hugo Palmer is continuing with her for one of his early supporting owners. I just think 25s a fair stab and if we see a drift then one to take a chance on.
Click to expand...

4th, beaten 1.5l after being nicely enough backed.

Close but no cigar.
 
Decent effort Dan. Fine line sometimes between being a genius and walking away with empty pockets. The most testing game in the world imo which is why I love it and bloody hate it at the same time. Its enough to send you puddled some days.
 
Thurles 2.20 Jazz Ranger 33/1 general - was running a cracker over course and going but 1/2 a mile further in a big field handicap in what looked a good time - but took a heavy fall 2 out when challenging, and was banged into by another horse when he got up. I hoping poor display l/t/o was because he was sent out to race again only 2 weeks later. Having had 6 1/2 weeks rest since and the booking of Rachel Blackmore, I'm hopeful he'll be thereabouts.
 
swedish chef said:
Thurles 2.20 Jazz Ranger 33/1 general - was running a cracker over course and going but 1/2 a mile further in a big field handicap in what looked a good time - but took a heavy fall 2 out when challenging, and was banged into by another horse when he got up. I hoping poor display l/t/o was because he was sent out to race again only 2 weeks later. Having had 6 1/2 weeks rest since and the booking of Rachel Blackmore, I'm hopeful he'll be thereabouts.
Click to expand...

Just missed out on a place but I covered my stake with 4 places for a free bet.
4 to be placed
Matched betsOrder by matched date
Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
Jazz Ranger6 £2.00 £10.00
Ref: 114235634797Matched: 14:08 21-Jan-18
 
Back
Top