The Long Shot Thread

Another ante-post toe in the water for the Betfair Hurdle:

Gwafa 80+ at Betfair

As with Cliffs Of Dover earlier in the week, the hope is that he stays in the race as long as possible, gradually shortening as the race approaches and giving me the chance to lay off at shorter and have bets to no down side.

Gwafa has ‘only’ been off since early last season but was rated 149 when last seen over hurdles (Oct 2016) when he was 2/1f to give the then 155-rated winner Hargam 4lbs yet he gets in here off just 140. He made a promising comeback on the AW recently and is generally 50/1 with the other bookmakers. On my figures his best form is as good as anything else at the top of the betting.
 
Was away from home with a rubbish ipad that made it difficult to study yesterdays racing, so put ew's on all the horses on this thread yesterday. After the disappointment of Sheena Wests horse coming down at the last [I did back that at 50/1 as she'd mentioned it on her facebook page the day before, and I tend to back her horses blind; ditto Pam Slys']] I was well chuffed to look at the results later that day to see Donnas Diamond had won. Many thanks for that. I do like to back horses that have been off the track for a while and hate it when I miss one.
 
Going to try 2 tomorrow at Wolves. Each way singles and double.

5.50 - Argent Knight 20/1 (365 & Ladbrokes)

Have to go back in his form, think he's had some time off injured more recently. Basically the argument is that this is 3rd run back from the layoff. Class 5 should be well within his compass. Trip could be slightly sharp and so I'd hope to see him plugging on at the death. The mark is very fair.

6.50 Gealach Ghorm 20/1 generally

Looked a non-stayer last time out and the drop back to the 9.5f will hopefully suit. Handicap mark should be workable and hopefully from what is a decent draw I'm hoping we can get a decent early position and go from there.

The worry is that we get 2 pulled out and end up at EW 1-2.

Good luck all.
 
Monday
Fakenham 1.55 Pri Massini 28/1 general - Won a PTP just over two years ago over distance and going, but hasn't been seen since - The 2nd that day Woods Well achieved a rating of 134 on his first season under rules and the 3rd Hurricane Dylan had one run in a NHF race btn 6L by Geordie Des Champs rated o/r 140 now. Shame there are only 6 runners but if the horse is over his problems he may have the ability to give his stablemate the fav a race, especially with the 7lb claimer on board, Fergus Gregory (2 wins from last 3 runs for trainer). He's getting nearly a stone off his stablemate and his price tempts me to have a go.
 
swedish chef said:
Monday
Fakenham 1.55 Pri Massini 28/1 general - Won a PTP just over two years ago over distance and going, but hasn't been seen since - The 2nd that day Woods Well achieved a rating of 134 on his first season under rules and the 3rd Hurricane Dylan had one run in a NHF race btn 6L by Geordie Des Champs rated o/r 140 now. Shame there are only 6 runners but if the horse is over his problems he may have the ability to give his stablemate the fav a race, especially with the 7lb claimer on board, Fergus Gregory (2 wins from last 3 runs for trainer). He's getting nearly a stone off his stablemate and his price tempts me to have a go.
Click to expand...

Good luck. Looks overpriced given the first season form of his trainer and the horse's early achievement.
 
swedish chef said:
Monday
Fakenham 1.55 Pri Massini 28/1 general - Won a PTP just over two years ago over distance and going, but hasn't been seen since - The 2nd that day Woods Well achieved a rating of 134 on his first season under rules and the 3rd Hurricane Dylan had one run in a NHF race btn 6L by Geordie Des Champs rated o/r 140 now. Shame there are only 6 runners but if the horse is over his problems he may have the ability to give his stablemate the fav a race, especially with the 7lb claimer on board, Fergus Gregory (2 wins from last 3 runs for trainer). He's getting nearly a stone off his stablemate and his price tempts me to have a go.
Click to expand...

Trainer wrote on his betfair blog about this horse today.

Piri Massini (13:55) is a grand horse who has been off the track for a long time, he will certainly come on for his run as he is very fragile and today is a very much a watching brief.
 
Only occasionally look into the thread, but it seems Chef (and others) are in ripe form, banging-in the long-shots.

Great work.
 
BOOOOOOMMMMMM!!

Was watching race at work when 3 out someone came in the office and had to turn it off - then the fire alarms went off, sorted that out and finally saw the result - all I know is my account is £670 better off - got the f/c matched at 100.0 - I also have the stable runners in an e/way acca and win trebles with 7/2 & 28/1 for first two winners - LOVELY JUBBLY - Now I need to find a replay.
 
swedish chef said:
BOOOOOOMMMMMM!!

Was watching race at work when 3 out someone came in the office and had to turn it off - then the fire alarms went off, sorted that out and finally saw the result - all I know is my account is £670 better off - got the f/c matched at 100.0 - I also have the stable runners in an e/way acca and win trebles with 7/2 & 28/1 for first two winners - LOVELY JUBBLY - Now I need to find a replay.
Click to expand...

22-Jan-18
14:05:34 13:55 Fakenham
1 - 4 - Forecast
Betfair Bet ID 1:11432230***** | Placed: 22-Jan-18 13:36:09 Back 27.00 2.00 --
-2.00
Lost
22-Jan-18
14:05:34 13:55 Fakenham
4 - 1 - Forecast
Betfair Bet ID 1:1143****** | Placed: 22-Jan-18 13:43:24 Back 100.00 2.00 --
198.00
Won
22-Jan-18
14:05:33 13:55 Fakenham
Piri Massini - 3 TBP (3 TBP)
Betfair Bet ID 1:1143104****** | Placed: 22-Jan-18 10:24:08 Back 4.22 10.00 --
32.22
Won
22-Jan-18
14:05:32 13:55 Fakenham
Piri Massini - To Be Placed (2 TBP)
Betfair Bet ID 1:1143137***** | Placed: 22-Jan-18 11:25:05 Back 10.50 3.00 --
28.50
Won
22-Jan-18
14:05:32 13:55 Fakenham
Piri Massini - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:1143225***** | Placed: 22-Jan-18 13:40:06 Back 46.00 2.35 --
105.75
Won

Boom! You have won £185.00
Single Each Way
W
13:55 NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 7f 95y - Each Way
20/1
Piri Massini
28/1
E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 2 Places
Stake:
£10.00
Returns:
£185.00
Bet ID: O/6561083/*****

Boom! You have won £111.00
Single Each Way
W
13:55 NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 7f 95y - Each Way
20/1
Piri Massini
28/1
E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 2 Places
Stake:
£6.00
Returns:
£111.00
---------------------------------------------------

Trebles

0 Legs In-Play
Stake £11.30


Awaiting Result
Potential Return: £4,379.49
Cash Out Part of Your Bet
WON Leg 1: Win | Hurricane Rita | 7/2
LOST Leg 2: Win | Ataman | 20/1
WON Leg 3: Win | Piri Massini | 28/1
PLACED Leg 4: Win | Rio Quinto | 4/5

Leg 5: Win | 5 More Than Luck | 6/1

Leg 6: Win | 1 Captiva Island | 15/8

Leg 7: Win | 4 No Alarm | 50/1

Leg 8: Win | 3 Flynnvincible | 20/1

Leg 9: Win | 2 Wood Pigeon | 9/4

Leg 10: Win | 6 Bisoubisou | 7/4

Leg 11: Win | 4 Flow With Eve | 5/1
 
Unbelievable stuff, Chef!!!

I got 28/1 last night. To say I'm fair chuffed is putting it mildly.

You can take over this thread any time!!
 
Incredible stuff Chef, great shooting. Really chuffed for you.

What a day to follow Olly Murphy. Must be a very nice overall return.
 
Last edited:
wilsonl said:
Incredible stuff Chef, great shooting. Really chuffed for you.

What a day to follow Olly Murphy. Must be a very nice overall return.
Click to expand...

Yes one of my better days - with the 4 trebles just coming in about £47 laid out and just short of £800 returned.
 
Tuesday
Leicester 1.00 Hayley Belle 22/1
Positives
Ran a good race l/t/o against better horses imo at least going by racing post ratings - leading for 2 1/2 miles before either running out of stamina or a breathing problem as jockey pulled her up very quickly. Lost many lengths in the process by jumping violently right, so a switch to a right handed track should suit. Cost the most of all the horses in the race at £48,000 but no information on how much J.P.McManus paid for his. Won a PTP over 3 miles on the going and wears a tongue tie for the first time. Many of trainers(Mark Bradstock) horses like to gallop off in front. Trainers last two runners finished 3rd & 2nd so stable form looking good. Hopefully I see her making the running and if tongue tie works to good effect she may see her race out better over 1/2 a mile shorter. Odds look too big.
 
May I respectfully suggest that people thinking of backing this one hold off for a couple of hours?

Only three or four firms have priced the race up (best price 25/1) and it's possible 28/1 or 33/1 might be on offer by mid-evening.

I like the idea of NDB riding this one for the Bradstocks.

(Don't see any McManus horse in the field, by the way, Chef.)
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
May I respectfully suggest that people thinking of backing this one hold off for a couple of hours?

Only three or four firms have priced the race up (best price 25/1) and it's possible 28/1 or 33/1 might be on offer by mid-evening.

I like the idea of NDB riding this one for the Bradstocks.

(Don't see any McManus horse in the field, by the way, Chef.)
Click to expand...

I saw a Johnjo horse and mistook the colours for McManus - rechecked and it shows they paid £20,000 for this horse so my selection is the most expensive purchase. Found this on the Bradstock website written before horse had run.

Hayley Belle
Born: 2011
Sire: Flemensfirth (USA)
Dam: Tart of Tipp (IRE)

Hayley is a massive 17 hand mare who had won a point to point in Ireland as a five year old before we bought her. The strain of doing that when she was clearly nowhere near fully mature had left her with some growing pains in her joints and so she has spent the year in the field to get over that. Before we decided that she needed that time, she had shown us a real engine which was not a surprise as she is out of a half sister to Plaid Maid who has given us Carruthers, Coneygree and Flintham. She is now so fat that she looks like a brood mare but we will give her a good long slow preparation and we cannot wait for the moment that she makes it to the racecourse.
 
DanB88 said:
Going to try 2 tomorrow at Wolves. Each way singles and double.8

5.50 - Argent Knight 20/1 (365 & Ladbrokes)

Have to go back in his form, think he's had some time off injured more recently. Basically the argument is that this is 3rd run back from the layoff. Class 5 should be well within his compass. Trip could be slightly sharp and so I'd hope to see him plugging on at the death. The mark is very fair.

6.50 Gealach Ghorm 20/1 generally

Looked a non-stayer last time out and the drop back to the 9.5f will hopefully suit. Handicap mark should be workable and hopefully from what is a decent draw I'm hoping we can get a decent early position and go from there.

The worry is that we get 2 pulled out and end up at EW 1-2.

Good luck all.
Click to expand...

Nothing doing.

Argent Knight showing nothing like his old form.

Gealach Ghorm withdrawn.
 
swedish chef said:
Tuesday
Leicester 1.00 Hayley Belle 22/1
Positives
Ran a good race l/t/o against better horses imo at least going by racing post ratings - leading for 2 1/2 miles before either running out of stamina or a breathing problem as jockey pulled her up very quickly. Lost many lengths in the process by jumping violently right, so a switch to a right handed track should suit. Cost the most of all the horses in the race at £48,000 but no information on how much J.P.McManus paid for his. Won a PTP over 3 miles on the going and wears a tongue tie for the first time. Many of trainers(Mark Bradstock) horses like to gallop off in front. Trainers last two runners finished 3rd & 2nd so stable form looking good. Hopefully I see her making the running and if tongue tie works to good effect she may see her race out better over 1/2 a mile shorter. Odds look too big.
Click to expand...

Non - runner :( Reason: Vets Cert (Lame)
 
Last edited:
Back
Top