The Long Shot Thread

I've been MIA for a couple of days, and now I come on and see all the fun I've missed.

Top tipping Chef, great work.
 
Tomorrow - Southwell 1.05

Holyroman Princess 25/1.

Hoping the step up in trip can work off a basement handicap mark, the last run at Southwell was promising enough with the filly sticking on for pressure, giving the impression this trip would suit.

25s is fair enough for me.
 
Thursday
Kelso 12.45 U Name It 33/1 - really poor form having PU in 5 of his last 6 races but there are reasons for a speculative minimum stakes bet.

Dropping right back in distance having travelled prominently over the distance he tackles today l/t/o before pulling up.
Had the highest O/R over hurdles of all the horses in the field and now running of bottom weight.
The most interesting to me is the jockey booking - Amateur jockey Mr B Lynn. This is an amateur jockeys race and imo he is the best jockey in the race.
Great Britain Flat
-------Wins Runs % 2ND 3RD 4THS WINNINGS TOTAL EARNINGS £1 STAKE
TOTAL ---8----27--30---3----2----5 ----£26,772 -----£31,869 ----- +41.75
Jumps
TOTAL----1 ---11---9----1----2---0------£3,119-------£5,452------- -3.00

I can see them having a go and trying to make the running although will be hard against Diggers horse and McCain's but stranger things happen in racing and a minimum speculative bet advised.
 
There was a 33/1 winner at the last Kelso meeting that I was kicking myself about. Afraid I've forgotten it's name but it had really good course form and I know I should have backed it...
 
moehat said:
..it was Mirsaale; I'd even looked at it the night before and thought about backing it.
Click to expand...

I did back it and the second to minimum stakes and got the f/c. They had both previously ran in the fighting fifth. I should have put them on this thread but wasn't thinking clearly as my own horse was running in the race. Did the bet more as a cover should my own horse disappoint.
 
Gowran Park 3.00 Wounded Warrior 33/1 - finished 6th in this race last year off a mark of 152 and with the jockey claim today is 25lbs lower. Showed first signs of form since this race last year, last time out over 1/2 mile further where he was leading at four out. If back to anywhere near the form of last years race he could be thrown in?
 
Another one in the Thyestes that I thought might go well at a big price is Fine Theatre. The stable has been in better form recently after a long period in the doldrums and the horse has done well on his two previous runs at Gowran. The combination of trip and going looks right for him and the featherweight of only 9-12 is a big help in these conditions. I wouldn't be too put off by the drift, it's not a big gambling stable.
 
Well that was entertaining stuff, Fine Theatre indeed, but no payout. Great run from yours, Chef, I had a small ew on it too.
 
swedish chef said:
Gowran Park 3.00 Wounded Warrior 33/1 - finished 6th in this race last year off a mark of 152 and with the jockey claim today is 25lbs lower. Showed first signs of form since this race last year, last time out over 1/2 mile further where he was leading at four out. If back to anywhere near the form of last years race he could be thrown in?
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I bottled it and had to turn the race off in it's closing stages, having backed Wounded Warrior twice because, at the last minute I couldn't see that my previous bet had gone through! Truly inspirational tipping once again!
 
Great stuff Chef. Jockey certainly earned his fee as well!


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Huntingdon 2.05 Windspiel 20/1 - Another who rates a speculative minimum stakes bet purely because I think this http://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/video/20171113/2728749/16358171 is the single-most best piece of form in the race. However, the horse cannot be trusted to reproduce it.
He had an excuse in his penultimate race having slipped up and unseated jockey. Looked to me like he tangled legs with the horse in front of him. Last time out was just poor. There may be excuses for that run but he has been poor before. I'm having a minimum stakes e/way bet because he has run 5 bad races and one good one, giving me odds of 6/1 that today he may be good? The trainer also has a 24% place rate on all runners in the last 5 years so I feel I'm getting a value bet for my money with no expectations. Good luck if you play.
 
I'd like to wish you all the best Chef but your current form is making the rest of us look fairly useless. Any chance you could throw the odd stinker in every now and then ?
 
Danny said:
I'd like to wish you all the best Chef but your current form is making the rest of us look fairly useless. Any chance you could throw the odd stinker in every now and then ?
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This selection probably will be a stinker, thus minimum bet advised. :)
 
Real haymaker this one.

I've had a handful of kopeks on Native Gamut, in the 4-runner novice chase at Donny at 200/1 (888).

Mount Mews is a worthy fave, but is upped significantly in trip to 3m for the first time, having never raced a yard beyond 2m3f beforehand. There are maybe some stamina doubts.

Robbin'hannon is one of my tracker horses, but he's having his first chase run under Rules, and might not like the Soft ground.

Wotzizname is probably the most solid option in the race, so I'm guessing I hope he runs-out, or the jockey falls off at some stage.

The selection is a winning-pointer, whose best form is running North Hill Harvey to 15L in a 3m PTP, which gives me just a slither of hope, that he might not be completely and utterly useless.
 
Huntington 3:50. Simply The West - 40/1 each way.....he was off the track for two years and pulled up the last twice, but on previous form in 2015 and before that, off marks roughly a stone higher in the 120's, if Charlie Longsdon could recapture any of that in him, this horse could run a place today at a huge price. His only hurdle success was a good one when he won by 13 lengths on soft ground over this sort of distance at Bangor. He'll be encountering these kind of conditions again today. He wears first time cheekpieces and a tongue tie too which will hopefully rejuvenate him.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Real haymaker this one.

I've had a handful of kopeks on Native Gamut, in the 4-runner novice chase at Donny at 200/1 (888).

Mount Mews is a worthy fave, but is upped significantly in trip to 3m for the first time, having never raced a yard beyond 2m3f beforehand. There are maybe some stamina doubts.

Robbin'hannon is one of my tracker horses, but he's having his first chase run under Rules, and might not like the Soft ground.

Wotzizname is probably the most solid option in the race, so I'm guessing I hope he runs-out, or the jockey falls off at some stage.

The selection is a winning-pointer, whose best form is running North Hill Harvey to 15L in a 3m PTP, which gives me just a slither of hope, that he might not be completely and utterly useless.
Click to expand...

Mild semi for 2m3f. :lol:
 
Grasshopper said:
Real haymaker this one.

I've had a handful of kopeks on Native Gamut, in the 4-runner novice chase at Donny at 200/1 (888).

Mount Mews is a worthy fave, but is upped significantly in trip to 3m for the first time, having never raced a yard beyond 2m3f beforehand. There are maybe some stamina doubts.

Robbin'hannon is one of my tracker horses, but he's having his first chase run under Rules, and might not like the Soft ground.

Wotzizname is probably the most solid option in the race, so I'm guessing I hope he runs-out, or the jockey falls off at some stage.

The selection is a winning-pointer, whose best form is running North Hill Harvey to 15L in a 3m PTP, which gives me just a slither of hope, that he might not be completely and utterly useless.
Click to expand...

For the uneducated. What's a handful of Kopeks? Best of luck with this. Just can't see past Mount Mews myself so not backed it. Best of luck though.
 
Grasshopper said:
Six quid more-or-less. Please note that this is not based on any official exchange-rate. :lol:
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Cheers, nice returning that comes in!!
Unlucky with yours Chef. Cruising for the first mile and half then found nothing.
Keep up the good work though. More winners in this then the famous 'Will Win' thread.
 
Grasshopper said:
Real haymaker this one.

I've had a handful of kopeks on Native Gamut, in the 4-runner novice chase at Donny at 200/1 (888).

Mount Mews is a worthy fave, but is upped significantly in trip to 3m for the first time, having never raced a yard beyond 2m3f beforehand. There are maybe some stamina doubts.

Robbin'hannon is one of my tracker horses, but he's having his first chase run under Rules, and might not like the Soft ground.

Wotzizname is probably the most solid option in the race, so I'm guessing I hope he runs-out, or the jockey falls off at some stage.

The selection is a winning-pointer, whose best form is running North Hill Harvey to 15L in a 3m PTP, which gives me just a slither of hope, that he might not be completely and utterly useless.
Click to expand...

I put in a trade at 20.0 and it traded at 21.0 :lol:
 
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