The Long Shot Thread

Limerick 5.15 Milanesque 20/1 2nd in this race 2 years ago off 11lb higher if you count jockeys claim today. Was off injured last season and has had 3 gentle races this season. Blinkers on for the first time suggest they mean business and hopefully this race is the seasons target?
 
swedish chef said:
Limerick 5.15 Milanesque 20/1 2nd in this race 2 years ago off 11lb higher if you count jockeys claim today. Was off injured last season and has had 3 gentle races this season. Blinkers on for the first time suggest they mean business and hopefully this race is the seasons target?
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Liked the look of Instant Smile myself after looking at the form earlier, but good luck with yours Chef.

You could have a saver on mine as cover!
 
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Monday Lingfield 5.25 - Gannicus 25/1

Must admit this is more a watching brief tomorrow rather than a bet but I might have a tickle if subject to a morning drift to 40s or 50s.

There's a couple of boxes not ticked tomorrow; the trip could be slightly on the long side and the draw could have been kinder. I'm interested more on the second run back from a break off this mark angle whilst fully realising tomorrow might not be the day.

We'll see.
 
Limerick 2.15 The Last Armada 33/1 general 40/1 - 50/1 in places. This mare has shown some good form in PTP'S especially behind Momella and l/t/o/ in a flat race behind Champion bumper winner Relegate to suggest the ability may be there to outrun her odds. The step up in distance and going may well suit her?
 
swedish chef said:
Limerick 2.15 The Last Armada 33/1 general 40/1 - 50/1 in places. This mare has shown some good form in PTP'S especially behind Momella and l/t/o/ in a flat race behind Champion bumper winner Relegate to suggest the ability may be there to outrun her odds. The step up in distance and going may well suit her?
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Good shout, Chef. Nice third (33/1).
 
Clonmel 2.40 Gliondar Mo Chroi 150/1 minimun bet e/way and bigger bet 4 places betfair - I think of those that have run the selection is the 4th best horse in the race and if any of the top 3 in the betting are off their game then the selection could get placed.
 
swedish chef said:
Clonmel 2.40 Gliondar Mo Chroi 150/1 minimun bet e/way and bigger bet 4 places betfair - I think of those that have run the selection is the 4th best horse in the race and if any of the top 3 in the betting are off their game then the selection could get placed.
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Some shout there [emoji106]. Exactly liked you called it. What price was it for 4 places on the machine?
 
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swedish chef said:
Clonmel 2.40 Gliondar Mo Chroi 150/1 minimun bet e/way and bigger bet 4 places betfair - I think of those that have run the selection is the 4th best horse in the race and if any of the top 3 in the betting are off their game then the selection could get placed.
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BOOOOOOOOOOOOM!

Boom! You have won £62.00
Single Each Way
P
14:40 2M HURDLE 2m - Each Way
Gliondar Mo Chroi
150/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
Stake:
£4.00
Returns:
£62.00
------------------------------------

20-Mar-18
14:47:07 14:40 Clonmel
Gliondar Mo Chroi - 4 TBP (4 TBP)
Betfair Bet ID 1:11977*****| Placed: 20-Mar-18 11:03:03 Back 6.20 5.00 --
26.00
Won
------------------
20-Mar-18
14:47:07 14:40 Clonmel
Gliondar Mo Chroi - 4 TBP (4 TBP)
Betfair Bet ID 1:11978******| Placed: 20-Mar-18 14:23:47 Back 6.20 5.00 --
26.00
Won
-------------------------------
20-Mar-18
14:47:06 14:40 Clonmel
Gliondar Mo Chroi - To Be Placed (3 TBP)
Betfair Bet ID 1:119783****** | Placed: 20-Mar-18 14:32:17 Back 22.00 2.00 --
42.00
Won
-----------------------
20-Mar-18
14:47:06 14:40 Clonmel
Gliondar Mo Chroi - To Be Placed (3 TBP)
Betfair Bet ID 1:119783***** | Placed: 20-Mar-18 14:32:36 Back 22.00 2.00 --
42.00
Won
 
Wednesday - Chepstow 2.20 Abbeygrey 25/1 small e/way - record after a 50+ day break U/R 2 out when in the lead - 1st - 5th - 1st - so usually performs well fresh - first time on this course with big weight dampens the enthusiasm but does go well for amateur jockey who is claiming 7lb
 
Limerick 2.35 Court Artist 22/1 in places - small e/way - Beat the fav Alletrix 5L in October giving that horse 5lb - Btn under a length to Cap Soleil in a listed race at Haydock. Cap Soleil finished 2nd to Laurina at the festival. Priced up on one bad run l/t/o but you can excuse any mare a bad run. Trained by Mullins who can not be easily dismissed in Mares races.
 
swedish chef said:
Limerick 5.15 Milanesque 20/1 2nd in this race 2 years ago off 11lb higher if you count jockeys claim today. Was off injured last season and has had 3 gentle races this season. Blinkers on for the first time suggest they mean business and hopefully this race is the seasons target?
Click to expand...


Isn't this the abandoned meeting from Sunday, Milanesque been backed in today
 
swedish chef said:
Limerick 2.35 Court Artist 22/1 in places - small e/way - Beat the fav Alletrix 5L in October giving that horse 5lb - Btn under a length to Cap Soleil in a listed race at Haydock. Cap Soleil finished 2nd to Laurina at the festival. Priced up on one bad run l/t/o but you can excuse any mare a bad run. Trained by Mullins who can not be easily dismissed in Mares races.
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Another good shout Chef! TVM.
 
Chepstow 4.00 Firebird Flyer - managed to get 21/1 on the machine - On lowest mark for over 5 years and I'm given it one last chance - reportedly working well at home.
Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
Firebird Flyer22 £5.00 £105.00

Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
Firebird Flyer5.6 £4.00 £18.40
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Cork 3.40 Robin On The Hill 40/1 & Taras Smile 80/1 - Don't expect either to win unless there is mayhem for the two favs but will play them to 3 & 4 places - staked to make a profit should one finish 3rd or 4th if odds allow?
 
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Three in the Lincoln strike me as longer than they should be but, of course, if they're not ready 100/1 wouldn't be value.

Kings Gift 50/1 - I backed this when it was 33/1 on Thursday so I'm disappointed that I don't have the price guarantee. The drift also has me concerned that it isn't even trying. It's under the same ownership as Lord Glitters and carries the second colours but I can't imagine Mulrennan taking up a booking for a non-trier in a race like this when he could have been in demand for others.

Dolphin Vista 25/1 - I missed out on the 33/1 yesterday evening waiting for it to be more generally available this morning. Tidy winner of the Cambridgeshire and his 7lbs claimer has a very good strike rate for a group of trainers and it may be that Meade is latching on to him. He offsets the rise he got for winning at Newmarket.

Gabrial 28/1 - previous winner and handicapped to go close again. Should probably be no more than 12/1.
 
Well done Chef. Cooking up a treat with those big priced places.

I'm going to start measuring my contributions using a 1pt EW level staking plan. Just to see how I get on throughout the flat season and rest of the year in general. I'll take the place terms offered by a bookmaker who is offering the 20s+.

One for tonight:

8.45 Wolves - Tisa River - 66/1 General 1/5 odds 1/2/3

This is a moderate horse but with Point North out of the contest I'm convinced it's not the strongest race for the grade. I've noticed Milton has gone for a 5lb claimer off a mark of 46 and the horse is drawn on the inside.

This is the sort of horse I can see falling in somewhere. It may be that they're waiting for the turf to kick off properly and he's just ticking over on the all weather but I'll give it a shot at the price available. I think 28s or 33s would have been fair and anything bigger than 50s is big.

Good luck.
 
Ive done two in the irish lincoln tomorrow which coral have at backable prices

Canary row 25/1 is only 12s with bet 365 and he loves heavy going.the only negative is he might be better over 7f but has won over 1m.

The other really is a longshot
Coherent 66/1 25s bet365.been running over the sticks and must have caught my eye as hes in my alerts.
Hasnt won on the flat but was 2nd over 10f on soft at beverley.
 
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