I mentioned earlier in the week on another thread about really liking the look of Ghaiyyath last year and having looked at the betting for the Classics this year I'm thinking its likely he is going to swerve the Guineas and go the Dante-Derby route. He's 25/1 for the Derby and although I have to admit I was hugely impressed with Saxon Warrior at the back end of last season at the prices I don't mind taking him on. Not being the best judge of such things I don't really want to be laying out a huge chunk of my own dough on the opinion, so I've decided to try a couple more of those crazy e/w doubles that I love so much to see if I can buy some cheap money to run on to this whimsical fancy.
I have to admit to having various wagers already down on the Grand National but over the last week having been watching some replays of key races I have 2 fancies that I think hold fairly solid claims of placing and perhaps slightly more than a punchers chance of winning. The first I'd already mentioned somewhere was Saint Are 66/1 fairly straight forward really stayed on well for third last year and arrives back off the same mark incredibly well weighted with the 4th Blaklion who not only returns higher in the handicap but basically in preparation seemed to have run himself to a complete standstill at Haydock and he's about 1/5th off the price of the Saint.
The one I'm probably more keen on and I'm really warming too having not been keen initially is Regal Encore 33/1. I wrote a piece on him earlier in the week,
From the Hennessy I've looked at Regal Encore and Total Recall. Regal Encore is certainly weighted to reverse from that being 10lb better off for 9 lengths and certainly at this trip I always use 0.5lb to a length as a rough guide unless its Heavy Ground then I'd double it. Regal Encore generally 33/1 and can be considered value but I don't think he'll be too far removed from that on the day so I wouldn't be pulling the trigger just yet. He finished 8th in last years Nash which at first glance may put you off however in context of what that means he was less than 2 lengths away from 6th which most firms will pay 6 places on the day. Its also notable and you could consider that he was "held up and staying on" which is a little different from the others OFA And CoC (1st and 2nd) don't run. Saint Are 3rd was staying on however I think its safe to say that the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th, placed finishers all held their respective chances turning in and appeared to not get home ( I could make excuses for some if pushed on it) . In other words he hasn't been beaten because he failed to stay.If anything he was probably held up too far back he was still in the back line of horses roughly 30-40L off the leaders he made up a lot of ground just before they turned for home and then looked held for a while but if you take a look at his position after the last fence he still looks about 15L down on the likes of Pleasant Company and Vieux lion rouge but by the line he's right up their backsides. As a first attempt at the National I'm thinking they've held him up trying to make sure he see's out the trip (always a bad/false strategy in my view) I'm wondering if now he's proven to have seen it out whether they may make a bit more use of him this year or even if the ground is a bit more testing whether that would help. Last year he took in a run at Cheltenham before hand when Pulling up in the plate this year looks a lot more like he's more been completely laid out for the Nash and certainly looks a bit better than last years efforts where he'd pulled up 3 times. He comes in this year off the back of a win in a Handicap just after the weights were set. Whilst that win was comparable, beating Minella Daddy, around Ascot (mirror result of some 14 month earlier) may suggest he's not progressed I have his 3rd in the Hennessey by far the best run he's ever produced figures wise. The more I type the more I talk myself into this one tbh and I'll definitely have some involvement by the day and he'll be one for the combi's I'm sure.
Total Recall on the other hand whilst I admit I've been impressed with what he's done so far ( I must have been to have a small involvement on him at some point) I'm drawing the Conclusion that he won't get the trip or if he does he's an unbelievable animal. I've noted from watching the replays that he's a very keen going sort. His spin over hurdles in Ireland he was entitled to be very keen as he was a class above his rivals and I wouldn't have though anything there could make him raise a gallop. However, both the Hennessey and The Gold cup were run at Grd1 pace and he was still fairly keen to my eye. We didn't get to see how he'd finish at Cheltenham and he did stay on strongly in the Hennessy but there is another mile here and he's not as well Handicapped as pointed out by my view of Regal Encore.
So 5 places NRNB with 365 for the nash runners.
Regal encore 33/1 £15 e/w double Ghaiyyath 25/1 (Derby) 3 places 5th
Saint Are 66/1 £10 e/w double Ghaiyyath 25/1 (Derby) 3 places 5th.
& maybe e/w up to 5 ?)
