The Long Shot Thread

Two qualifiers in the Eider.

Portrait King 33/1 and Smooth Stepper 20/1

Smooth Stepper is my main fancy in the race, backed midweek at 16/1 ante-post (and in a double with Theatre Territory at the same price (288/1 the win, 24/1 the places)) but he's been weak in the last 24 hours and now qualifies for the thread. He was near the top of my ratings and was the only real +p runner. I hoped Danny Cook would opt for him but he’s staying with Hainan. I’m not sure I trust Hainan’s Haydock form. We’ve seen with Bristol De Mai and The Dutchman that it doesn’t always stand up. Smooth Stepper certainly jumped Baywing (10/1 for this) silly last time and could do so again. I would be surprised and disappointed if he doesn’t stay this trip. The only twice he’s tried trips in excess of 3½ miles he’s been held up and maybe that doesn’t suit. Or maybe I’m grasping at straws…

Portrait King looks a solid marker for the race and could win by default if others fail to perform or improve. He ran really well behind Blaklion at Aintree earlier this season and was an excellent third in the Topham. That might be his big target again but this is more realistic. However, he has to be vulnerable to a younger improver.
 
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I've done Silver Tassie 33/1 in the Eider - Better off in the weights than Smooth Stepper - down to a good mark and watching his videos gives me the impression he keeps plodding on at 3m, so 4m may suit?
 
Silver Tassie wasn't off an inch. Probably being trained for something like the Ayr National but might not make the cut there.

Old Portrait King got a brilliant ride but age is probably catching up with him now. Horse and jockey gave it everything.

My spirits sank when I saw Smooth Stepper held up and out wide. He probably likes to see his fences and probably couldn't afford to chase the pace but once again a hold up ride at this kind of trip has led to being well beaten. Have to assume he just doesn't stay and might be better in small fields.
 
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Happy enough with Theatre Territory's run in third staying on again after hitting a flat spot going to two out. Did easily best of those who raced up with the pace and it will be interesting to see if Simon Rowlands recommends a mark-up. The first and second came from well back, indicating a very fast pace throughout.

It's been an OK day, punting-wise.
 
4.35 Lingfield- Head Space

Is it time for this old boy to fall in at 10? 25s is work a go to me (Bet365) 20s generally.

The case for;

Drawn well on the inside
Off a basement mark
A fair claimer taking 7lbs off
Some fair back-form at the track.
Ran a fair race behind Jorvik Prince and the likes of Black Truffle in recent runs

The case against;

It looks a trappy race as can be expected for the grade with a few other course winners in the field. I'd be keen on Swift Fox with a better draw.

Happy to chance my arm and hope the old boy can go well off 8.10.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Two qualifiers in the Eider.

Portrait King 33/1 and Smooth Stepper 20/1

Smooth Stepper is my main fancy in the race, backed midweek at 16/1 ante-post (and in a double with Theatre Territory at the same price (288/1 the win, 24/1 the places)) but he's been weak in the last 24 hours and now qualifies for the thread. He was near the top of my ratings and was the only real +p runner. I hoped Danny Cook would opt for him but he’s staying with Hainan. I’m not sure I trust Hainan’s Haydock form. We’ve seen with Bristol De Mai and The Dutchman that it doesn’t always stand up. Smooth Stepper certainly jumped Baywing (10/1 for this) silly last time and could do so again. I would be surprised and disappointed if he doesn’t stay this trip. The only twice he’s tried trips in excess of 3½ miles he’s been held up and maybe that doesn’t suit. Or maybe I’m grasping at straws…

Portrait King looks a solid marker for the race and could win by default if others fail to perform or improve. He ran really well behind Blaklion at Aintree earlier this season and was an excellent third in the Topham. That might be his big target again but this is more realistic. However, he has to be vulnerable to a younger improver.
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Well done with Portrait King & Theatre Territory - nice picking.
 
Magicinthemaking 900k 20/1

An eyecatcher for me a couple of races ago and last time ran as if 7f will suit,but will be dropped 3lb for future races so maybe i should wait for that.
 
Outsider said:
Magicinthemaking 900k 20/1

An eyecatcher for me a couple of races ago and last time ran as if 7f will suit,but will be dropped 3lb for future races so maybe i should wait for that.
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Backed into 12s but now its off,we'll never know.
 
Another quiet day today - no bets at all last weekend - and only one qualifier which I reckon most people would have been able to guess.

Gassin Golf (Imperial Cup) 25/1 (taken)

This old fella really needs no introduction hence my reckoning he'd have been easy to guess. He's clearly not as good as when officially rated 141 three seasons back but he doesn't need to be. He only needs to be as good as in the first half of last season when third to Remiluc when he was off 136. He obviously remains fragile as he tends to run two or three times than have a break. He showed a wee bit more last time and now runs for the fourth time in two months, three of which have been at this course. It's the first time he's done so since early 2014. I just wonder if they think he has one last hurrah in him in a race in which he has been second and third before.

The penalty for Cheltenham isn't going to be an issue as he won't get into any of the handicaps there.

He isn't my main bet in the race but worth a pop at the price.
 
I agree Des just being a lot better off in the weights with CML points to him being value. I couldn't back him e/w as I just can't see him winning but have included him in some combi's with ones I fancy more.
 
Mr Antolini looks to have improved bundles since joining NTD and may have more to come. May be good value for the Imperial Cup at 22/1


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I had backed Melrose Boy in the 1.50 Sandown (10/1 before it came in to 7s and less) but I see it's a non-runner. I've had a quick dekko through my ratings and gone instead each-way with Notre Ami at 50/1.

It's not a question of fancying it that much. It's more a case of on all the figures that it shouldn't be that price. It's chances are probably no worse than most of those in the 12/1 - 16/1 bracket.
 
Hereford 1.40 G.I.Jayne 50/1 showed first sign of form for a while in a better race l/t/o, a race I am following runners from as I think it will spout a few winners. Hopefully selection is a mare coming into form.
 
Well done, Viking. :) Be good to hear your festival handicap fancies in the near future.
 
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I'll probably have quite a few of these this week. I always do at the festival meetings because the markets make them possible.

1.30 Sharjah 20/1 and Debuchet 33/1

I took Sharjah at 7/1 before his last run but I got the NRNB and BOG so I don't mind that he's now 20/1. On good ground I'd fancy him to run away with the race. Softer ground is the issue but he has won in it. Wherever Claimanatakinforgan is in the betting Debuchet should be ahead of him. He was 50/1, possible more, the other day but now that the market for this has settled 33/1 (which I took about the same time as Sharjah) is still there. Take Fayonagh out of the bumper and he'd have been a taking winner. Again, the ground is a concern but he's no mug and was weighing up the field last time.

2.50 Sizing Codelco 40/1 and Vicente 20/1

Sizing Codelco is my main bet in the race. He is nicely under the radar. Three disappointing runs in the autumn have seen to that but he has the rare distinction of being a British-trained winner of a big Irish handicap, taking the Pat Taaffe at Punchestown in April. Given the disadvantageous handicapping terms our raiders face when attempting to take on the Irish on their own territory, it was an excellent performance and he’s only 4lbs higher here. SFP is clear top on my figures but only merits a saver due to his price and patchy record this season. Wakanda must go well too, I imagine. I thought that tight finish at Doncaster was one fought out by a group of well-handicapped horses and his 3lbs rise is very lenient. He has come in from 40/1 to 16s in recent days so someone else has clearly latched on to him. I presume he is high up Timeform’s figures. However, Danny Cook has opted for stablemate Vintage Clouds whose chance doesn’t seem obvious. He in turn carries the owner’s second colours, the first being worn by Sam T-D on Vicente. Nicholls has always said this horse needs good ground, hence his excellent record in the Scottish National but he put up a career peak first time up this season here when failing by a neck to peg back Perfect Candidate in very soft. That suggested to me he might just be a much better animal this season. He unseated in the Welsh National and runs here off the same mark, up just a pound from before.

3.30 John Constable 100/1 and Ch'tibello 50/1

Again, I'm on both ages ago with the guarantees so I'm comfortable even if their chances are maybe compromised by the ground. They're not as far behind the main contenders as the prices suggest.

5.30 Ibis Du Rheu 25/1

One of my savers in the race, looks a season-long plot among race full of them.
 
Of yesterday's hopefuls only Ibis gave me a run for my money although Sizing Codelco ran great for a circuit before jumping errors cost him dear.

Onwards and upwards...

2.50 Stowaway Magic 33/1, Abbyssial 33/1, Jeannot De Nonant 50/1, Mischievous Max 25/1

I make no apologies for taking four here. My main bet is Max Dynamite but these strike me as much too long for their form. With six places on offer I can't let them go unbacked.

3.30 Ar Mad 33/1 and God's Own 33/1, both w/o Altior.

Both may be in decline - today we find out for sure - but on their best form they have better chances [on my figures] than Special Tiara, Politologue, Charbel and Ordinary World. If one of Douvan or Min blows out...

5.30 Rev f/c Rhinestone and Blackbow

Not sure if combined it will pay more than 20/1 but the straight forecast almost certainly will.
 
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