The Long Shot Thread

Cracking effort Des that beast did me out of the forecast and the tricast so certainly wasn't cheering it home for you :lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Next...

5.15 Al Dancer 40/1 - NTD tends to send his better horses to this race so with the first-time hood he's a lovely each-way price.
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Fvckin' fourth again! Fvck!!

Could have been third if ridden closer to midfield. Seemed intent on accompanying the favourite all the way and wasn't in a great position when the jockey realised the favourite was going nowhere.
 
Oh no; got back late from shopping [my fault for nattering to people] so missed Dannys tip [well done that man].
 
I'm leaving the National aside for the thread for today. I've backed several, including a few at 100/1+ (ante-post and today) along with others at shorter.

Elsewhere though...

1.45 Sir Mangan 40/1 - my third fancy in the race but the others don't qualify. Sir Mangan looks the least fancied of Skelton’s three going by jockey bookings but his earlier form against Beer Goggles and Whataknight looks good. Harry Skelton abandoned Mohaayed on account of the ground at the festival only for it to go and win and the ground may be the reason for not riding Sir Mangan here but the horse is a big price for one with his rating.

2.25 Kildisart 22/1 - On The Blind Side is clearly going to be hard to beat but he's only third top on the ratings behind Black Op and Kildisart. I'm ruling Black Op out on account of the stable form. However, I haven't backed Kildisart at the price. I've taken him at 11/1 without OTBS but he could win anyway. I can't see this one out of the three.

4.20 Thomas Campbell 22/1 - Again, Sam Spinner should really win but the jockey got it so badly wrong at Cheltenham it's entirely possible he does it again at this entirely different track. With L'Ami Serge out, TC is next top on my current figures and is a big price in the circumstances. However, again I've gone for the market without the favourite (10/1) and managed to back him along with Kildisart in a lovely-priced each-way double both with and without the favs.

6.20 All Set To Go 40/1 - Again, not the main bet but I backed this one at the festival but he was just there for the fresh air as it turned out. I'm hoping that was a prep for this instead. I shamelessly copy and paste what I wrote before: All Set To Go is very interesting at long odds. He’s on the same mark as when a clear-cut winner when last seen fifteen months ago. He would almost certainly have gone up at least 5lbs for that win but he’s been allowed some leeway due to his absence so he could technically be officially well in and he might well have improved last season had he been able to race – who knows – and his price compensates for doubts. The going might be an issue but I’m prepared to take a chance with him as he has Daarshaan in his dam’s line. He was trained by Nicholls until last month and was sold on dispersal of the late owner’s stock. I can’t imagine Nicholls not having him fit prior to the sale.
 
Chepstow 4.40 Ruby Yeats 20/1 Coral & BetVictor - Pulled up last two runs over 3m - looked progressive over shorter trip previous to that. Hopefully drop back to 2m and first time blinkers will see a return to form.
 
Newcastle 2.05 Chanceofa Lifetime 22/1 - small win bet - has had problems but if coming back to form he has the beating of all these on old form off this mark.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm leaving the National aside for the thread for today. I've backed several, including a few at 100/1+ (ante-post and today) along with others at shorter.


6.20 All Set To Go 40/1 - Again, not the main bet but I backed this one at the festival but he was just there for the fresh air as it turned out. I'm hoping that was a prep for this instead. I shamelessly copy and paste what I wrote before: All Set To Go is very interesting at long odds. He’s on the same mark as when a clear-cut winner when last seen fifteen months ago. He would almost certainly have gone up at least 5lbs for that win but he’s been allowed some leeway due to his absence so he could technically be officially well in and he might well have improved last season had he been able to race – who knows – and his price compensates for doubts. The going might be an issue but I’m prepared to take a chance with him as he has Daarshaan in his dam’s line. He was trained by Nicholls until last month and was sold on dispersal of the late owner’s stock. I can’t imagine Nicholls not having him fit prior to the sale.
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Des you finally managed to nail 4th when they reduced the field to bloody 15 ! If you were on Road to Riches with Laddies as I was then we've also managed a 100/1 6th in a 5 place market :lol:

What you gotta do eh Des ?

Never mind mate, some cracking efforts of late and the luck has to turn at some point.
 
Plumpton 5.30 Scorpion Haze 20/1 William Hill - plenty of good form in his 3 bumper runs so far - 4th top rated on RPR's and trainer in great form - price looks value.
 
17.30 Scorpion Haze i don't think this track will suit Scorpion Haze especially if the ground is drying out as he's a big horse and he want's a big galloping track really. If the ground dries out too much he might not run so we will take a look when we get there. His future lies over an obstacle so it's a tricky little race for him.

Ali Stronge
 
luckyme said:
17.30 Scorpion Haze i don't think this track will suit Scorpion Haze especially if the ground is drying out as he's a big horse and he want's a big galloping track really. If the ground dries out too much he might not run so we will take a look when we get there. His future lies over an obstacle so it's a tricky little race for him.

Ali Stronge
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I thought the winner had the best form and was the danger so I got the place and the f/c
2 - 6 / 6 - 2 27 £5.00 £130.00
Ref: 12********Matched: 17:03 15-Apr-18
 
Its the scottish nation next and i know backing horses a/p without nrnb is a very risky business but bet 365 have tempted me with their 66/1
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX. Ran in the national and fell at Beechers so they might give it ago.33/1 elsewhere.

BLACKLION is another.25/1 is a cracking price imo.class topweights have won this before.
Ive also done FOLSOM BLUES but hes only 16s
Another i like but will wait is MYSTEREE if this horse comes back to form,but has been disappointing so far but last year he showed he was a good stayer.
 
We might at last end up with half-decent ground by Saturday. Something to bear in mind. I expect a huge run from Vicente but I don't know if he qualifies for the thread. I haven't seen the betting yet.
 
No he's favourite Des atm. I've taken a chance on Guitar Pete 33/1 firstly lining up and secondly getting the trip. When he won the Caspian Caviar staying on really well to beat Clan Des Obeaux I thought he'd be a cracking bet for the Ultima at Cheltenham and thought it was almost certain that Nicky would step him up in trip from there on in. He didn't he kept him at 2 and a half and ran him in the plate where he made a plethora of jumping errors and stayed on from the clouds to finish 6th. Clan Des Obeaux didn't look out of place against Might Bite and Bristol De mai at Aintree he went well for a long way but didn't really see out the trip over 3miles on testing ground but he's obviously a decent sort. Whether Guitar Pete wants a step up as big as 4miles I don't know but at 33/1 I'm prepared to take that chance. His jumping is an issue but I'm hoping the steadier pace of a Scottish National rather than 2m5f handicaps at Cheltenham will ease the pressure on his jumping.

I'd have no arguments against Vicente landing his Hatrick mate as this is certainly a race for repeat performers but he makes little appeal at the prices and he won't be far from top of the weights once the field cuts up today.

One last dance with chance before I start to tighten up my game and make a more concentrated effort to make the game pay.
 
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Given that Guitar Pete came third in Tiger Roll's Triumph, it would be great if he won the Scottish.
 
Haha never thought of it like that Moe but that would be quite something. Usually juvenile hurdlers do need further over time I'm just not sure he wants this much further but then you never can be until they've actually tried it.
 
This, I think, is a very decent longshot...

Each-way double ante-post:

September 8/1 (Oaks)
The Pentagon 14/1 (Derby)

Win double pays 134/1
(Place double pays just under 9/1 at 1/5 odds so technically doesn't count but neither would place portions for usual longshots.)

I wouldn't be surprised if, on their respective days, they're each around the 5/2 mark.

I got 20/1 September last year so I'm happy with that. I took The Pentagon at 8/1 before Saturday and I'm not about to let that defeat put me off him. It's not far off the situation in 1977 when I was hesitation about taking 7/2 The Minstrel for the Derby on the eve of the 2000G but chickened out. He finished fourth at Newmarket, went out to 20/1 and I wired in at that price.
 
Im not one for doing long term a/p bets in case i dont live that long but i must admit i did SEPTEMBER for the oaks at 25/1
 
Outsider said:
Its the scottish nation next and i know backing horses a/p without nrnb is a very risky business but bet 365 have tempted me with their 66/1
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX. Ran in the national and fell at Beechers so they might give it ago.33/1 elsewhere.

BLACKLION is another.25/1 is a cracking price imo.class topweights have won this before.
Ive also done FOLSOM BLUES but hes only 16s
Another i like but will wait is MYSTEREE if this horse comes back to form,but has been disappointing so far but last year he showed he was a good stayer.
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Well that was a bit of a disaster blacklion and houblon are NRs.never mind.
 
One today.

Nwm 4.10 Isomer 25/1 (ew, 5 pl with 2 books) - The owner's apparent second-string, Isomer, comes here on the back of a disappointing all-weather run in a very humble race which he couldn’t win at odds-on. That’s probably forgivable on the back of a six-month break and Murphy has a good strike rate for Balding. Isomer is lightly raced so may have had issues and was gelded after his final run last year. He had run well on a G3 at Salisbury on his second appearance last season and starts this turf season 9lbs lower than then.

I've also taken mixed ew doubles, only because two bookies are going 5 places in both races:

Isomer and Secret Art x Medieval and Donncha

Lowest win double pays about 179/1; highest pays 441/1

All just for coffee money, though.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I got 20/1 September last year so I'm happy with that.
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I did indeed and am indeed - it's one of the things I checked when SJ migrated to Unibet - so I was very pleasantly surprised, upon checking another account that I'd been paid out at 50/1 on Tiger Roll, to see that I also took 33/1 September.

Hopefully September will see Christmas fall in June :lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
One today.

Nwm 4.10 Isomer 25/1 (ew, 5 pl with 2 books) - The owner's apparent second-string, Isomer, comes here on the back of a disappointing all-weather run in a very humble race which he couldn’t win at odds-on. That’s probably forgivable on the back of a six-month break and Murphy has a good strike rate for Balding. Isomer is lightly raced so may have had issues and was gelded after his final run last year. He had run well on a G3 at Salisbury on his second appearance last season and starts this turf season 9lbs lower than then.
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Can't really complain about that, I suppose, even though I'm not convinced it was 100% there to win. I thought Murphy could have done more earlier in the race and wasn't too hard on it coming up the hill. Maybe the horse won't go up for this effort and can be a bit more competitive next time but third place at a nice price minimises potential losses on the day.
 
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