The Long Shot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
I've also taken mixed ew doubles, only because two bookies are going 5 places in both races:

Isomer and Secret Art x Medieval and Donncha

Lowest win double pays about 179/1; highest pays 441/1

All just for coffee money, though.
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Isomer & Donncha paid just over 24/1 for the place double so overall a reasonable profit on the day.
 
I'm getting this in now for tomorrow as I'm half-expecting the bookie (Bet 365) to 'correct' the price by morning.

CHL 2.40 - Quite By Chance (ew) 33/1 - he's been disappointing in his last three runs but they have coincided with the awful midwinter ground we've had. Go back to the late autumn and the better ground and he ran really well against handicap good things Exitas and Sir Valentino, the latter in a hundred-grander, off higher marks. The step back up in trip, the lower mark and the better ground will, I hope, bring about a much improved run and the stable was in brilliant form at Aintree last week. I reckon he really should be no longer in the betting than Frodon or Go Conquer.
 
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Cheers DO. I had him down as reasonably priced at 20/1 with Skybet but more than happy to take the 33/1 with Bet365


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Desert Orchid said:
I'm getting this in now for tomorrow as I'm half-expecting the bookie (Bet 365) to 'correct' the price by morning.

CHL 2.40 - Quite By Chance (ew) 33/1 - he's been disappointing in his last three runs but they have coincided with the awful midwinter ground we've had. Go back to the late autumn and the better ground and he ran really well against handicap good things Exitas and Sir Valentino, the latter in a hundred-grander, off higher marks. The step back up in trip, the lower mark and the better ground will, I hope, bring about a much improved run and the stable was in brilliant form at Aintree last week. I reckon he really should be no longer in the betting than Frodon or Go Conquer.
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Mo I quite fancy outsiders pick Traffic Fluide in this 365 also a standout price at 14's. That doesn't qualify for the thread of course but the forecast pays over 400/1 either way around.

I've gone for the big kahuna !
 
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Danny said:
Mo I quite fancy outsiders pick Traffic Fluide in this 365 also a standout price at 14's. That doesn't qualify for the thread of course but the forecast pays over 400/1 either way around.

I've gone for the big kahuna !
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No discipline
 
Haha caught me:p

Seriously though if you expect both to halve in price and I think both of you have made solid cases for both then it has to be worth a go. If they go off at 8's and 16's the forecast would pay 130 and 160 ish not 400 and 430ish. You know you're on board outsider :lol:
 
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Danny said:
Mo I quite fancy outsiders pick Traffic Fluide in this 365 also a standout price at 14's. That doesn't qualify for the thread of course but the forecast pays over 400/1 either way around.

I've gone for the big kahuna !
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If TF were guaranteed to run his race it would be a stone cold racing certainty. It would also be priced accordingly :)


You're getting 14/1 that it can be buggered. I'm not sure I'd take that.
 
Desert Orchid said:
One today.

Nwm 4.10 Isomer 25/1 (ew, 5 pl with 2 books) - The owner's apparent second-string, Isomer, comes here on the back of a disappointing all-weather run in a very humble race which he couldn’t win at odds-on. That’s probably forgivable on the back of a six-month break and Murphy has a good strike rate for Balding. Isomer is lightly raced so may have had issues and was gelded after his final run last year. He had run well on a G3 at Salisbury on his second appearance last season and starts this turf season 9lbs lower than then.

I've also taken mixed ew doubles, only because two bookies are going 5 places in both races:

Isomer and Secret Art x Medieval and Donncha

Lowest win double pays about 179/1; highest pays 441/1

All just for coffee money, though.
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Well done with Isomer DO and the place double with Donncha.
 
Another couple for today:

Chl 4.25 - Bryden Boy ew 66/1 (5pl) - Not my main bet in the race but far too long at the price. Should be around the same price as Whataknight. Bryden Boy beat Whataknight last season getting 13lbs less the latter’s rider’s 5lbs claim and gets 9lbs here. The stable’s runners are doing really well at the moment with seven of their last nine no worse than third in their respective races.

Chl 5.00 - Delusionofgrandeur 25/1 (5pl) - Again, not my main bet but I had a small bet on this lad in the National as I have him well handicapped on his Rowland Meyrick form. The worry with him is a very negative report (Ken Pitterson) on his condition ahead of the National in today’s edition of the Weekender.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
If TF were guaranteed to run his race it would be a stone cold racing certainty. It would also be priced accordingly :)


You're getting 14/1 that it can be buggered. I'm not sure I'd take that.
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Didn't qualify for the thread but well done Danny and Outsider. Backed as though just about guaranteed to run its race. Weird, weird race though.
 
I can't take the credit for that one lads he'd made the case for it months ago. He certainly wasn't on my radar for anything until Outsider flagged him up.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Chl 4.25 - Bryden Boy ew 66/1 (5pl) - Not my main bet in the race but far too long at the price. Should be around the same price as Whataknight. Bryden Boy beat Whataknight last season getting 13lbs less the latter’s rider’s 5lbs claim and gets 9lbs here. The stable’s runners are doing really well at the moment with seven of their last nine no worse than third in their respective races.
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Strange ride for both. Whataknight was my main bet in the race (12/1 ew) and I genuinely felt wherever he finished Bryden Boy wouldn't be far away. I don't know if BB was squeezed out turning at the top of the hill but he lost a lot of ground very suddenly. Whataknight, as at the festival, got a tactically inept ride. Fehily has got it wrong a number of times this season but maybe the horse needs to travel wide but I thought he was maybe just over-confident and the winner caught him cold.
 
3.15 Cheltenham
Indian Stream looks overpriced at 20/1 with Bet365. Her 4th at the Festival and previous good run here attempting to give 10lb to Midnight Tour who’s now rated 151 looks decent form


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Two longshots for the scottish national.

13yr olds have never won the scottish national but i think BENBENS 33/1 will give me a good run for my money.
Did me a big favour last year when finishing 3rd at 40 or 50/1.i cant remember what price i took now.
I think Zak Baker held on to him too long before trying to catch the first two and only got beat 2L.
Usually a good jumper and the drier ground will be in his favour.
MYSTEREE 33/1 is the other one.his last two runs last season were good and looked as if hed make a good staying chaser but his two runs this year doesnt inspire confidence.the stats will tell you that most winners were in the first 3 last time and he was thirdbut was beaten 124L
Yes 124L.all his best runs have been on soft/heavy but he has won on good.
 
I have taken 25/1 about GEORGE WILLIAM for the newbury spring cup.
Unlucky 4th in the race last year and a fast finishing 2nd in the victoria cup.
He then won a £9000 stakes race at salisbury and the hcapper put him up to 108 from 97.why they ruin a good mark for a bit of black type is beyond me.
He then ran down the field at ascot and this year ran twice unplaced at Meydan.the first of those two runs i thought he ran well and didnt have the best of runs.the next time i put him up on my thread and he was disappointing but the good thing is hes been dropped to 99.
Im confident he can win a good hcap,hopefully this one.

I bought the weekender today and see paul kealy has tipped it,so its only 20s now
 
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2.40 Ayr
Great Fighter is 8lb higher than his last winning mark (15lb higher than when winning this race last year) but ran a decent enough race in last year’s Swinton behind a very well handicapped John Constable off today’s mark. Started off well on the Flat last summer before being found out in stronger more competitive races from July. Not having run since September tempers enthusiasm a bit but he wouldn’t be 20/1 without that absence

Expected a better run from Indian Stream yesterday


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I have a few longshots today and will put them up over the next couple of hours as and when I get them on (waiting for the best prices). It's a heavy day for punting thanks to the excellent but difficult card at Ayr. It would just about pass for a Festival card. At Newbury the only race of interest from a betting perspective is the Spring Cup, which is where the first longshot runs.

Nwb 3.45 Master Carpenter 40/1 (ew, 5pl) - this one is really only sickness insurance. I can’t see him winning, to be honest, and his record at the trip and first time out say even 40/1 probably isn't value. I suspect this is his prep for York but he is ridiculously well handicapped, as he had been when winning there last spring, by five easy lengths off this mark, but that was over an extended 10f and I don’t imagine he still has the speed for a mile, if he ever did. He’s probably in decline but if he’s showing some old spark at home, who knows? And why is Atzeni booked when any of the trainer's usual bob-a-job jockeys could have been gifted a riding fee for breezing him around in midfield? Anyway, his rating went up to 110 when he was in his pomp and he gets into this off 95.

It looks like I'll be having two others in the race, both of which I reckon have serious chances of winning but Master Carpenter appears to have been nibbled at, going blue in a couple of places, so I thought I'd get this in early.
 
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