The Long Shot Thread

Two long shots for me in the Scottish National today. I expect Alzamaar to run much better than his 66/1 odds. He's looked a much better horse for fences and being stepped up in trip. He ran over trips as far as 14f on the flat, so it could well be that a marathon trip may bring out further improvement, and he'll love this quicker ground. I also suspect he's thrived for a switch to a smaller stable, as he'd lost his way slightly beforehand, and he looks to be in good form again now. Callum Bewley is a very good young claimer, and his three pounds means Alzamaar carries a featherweight 9st12lb. Bewley also rides Ayr well. It's a competitive race, but the Scottish National has thrown up plenty of surprises in the past. I've taken 50/1 ew 6 places with 365.
 
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The other one I feel is overpriced is Beware The Bear who is available at 25/1. He ran a nice enough race to finish fourth behind Coo Star Sivola in the Festival Chase at Cheltenham, and has the added bonus of the handicapper dropping him a pound for that. Nicky clearly feels he's one for marathon trips given he ran him in the 4 mile amateur chase at the 2017 Festival, where he finished just behind the places despite making a bad mistake and the rider losing his irons. He ran well when he won in bad ground earlier in the season, but he seems pretty versatile with regards underfoot conditions, and it may be that he needs better ground to get home over 4 miles. 25/1 is a big surprise. I can only assume that people regard him as the stable second string with De Boinville on Gold Present, but Jerry McGrath generally rides him, and De Boinville usually rides Gold Present so I doubt there was a choice to be made. I don't doubt GP has a very good chance but the trip is a big unknown and worryingly he bled at Cheltenham. I prefer Beware The Bear at such a big price.
 
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Maruco said:
Two long shots for me in the Scottish National today. I expect Alzamaar to run much better than his 66/1 odds. He's looked a much better horse for fences and being stepped up in trip. He ran over trips as far as 14f on the flat, so it could well be that a marathon trip may bring out further improvement, and he'll love this quicker ground. I also suspect he's thrived for a switch to a smaller stable, as he'd lost his way slightly beforehand, and he looks to be in good form again now. Callum Bewley is a very good young claimer, and his three pounds means Alzamaar carries a featherweight 9st12lb. Bewley also rides Ayr well. It's a competitive race, but the Scottish National has thrown up plenty of surprises in the past. I've taken 50/1 ew 6 places with 365.
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Yep, he's one of mine too, Maruco, for similar reasons. Great minds or fools? I was tempted by 66/1 & 6 places with PP but settled for the better fractions (same odds) for 5 places with B365.

BTB is another possibility for the race and I wouldn't attempt to put anyone off but it's one of those races (10/1 the field this morning) in which loads of them have a chance of sorts and BTB is just one of them.
 
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I find we have similar trains of thought quite often Maurice. I think we take a very similar approach, particularly to seeking out the value horses. It's also been noticeable over the last few years that we tend to latch on to the same races and horses early on.
 
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Great minds, then... :lol:

Moving swiftly on...


Two other longshots in the Spring Cup, each of which I'd argue could have a strong winning chance and are therefore seriously overpriced.

Keyser Soze 22/1 (ew, 5pl)

Gabrial 28/1 (likewise)

Keyser Soze's chance isn’t as obvious as Gabrial's but he was very heavily backed to win the Britannia when last seen and has presumably had a reason for his lengthy absence. If they thought he had the winning of the Britannia, a classier race than this, they must think a lot of him, presumably better than a handicapper, plus he’s entitled to have improved a lot over the winter. He’ll never get into a mega-handicap off his current mark so they’ll want to get him a hike. The worry is that there doesn't seem to be any money for him so maybe today is just a sighter.

Gabrial was right back in form in the Lincoln so he’s fit and well and up to winning this on that form. The Lincoln was a better race than this. Again, though, I'm not detecting anything positive in the market.
 
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Ayr 4.40 Sky Khan 20/1 (ew 4pl) - He was on a nice curve in the spring of 2016 (third in the Martin Pipe and fifth, giving weight, at Punchestown to Anabale Fly) and saw his mark rise to 140. He couldn’t beat carpets since but he’s had the winter off and could surprise if anywhere near his old level.
 
... and lastly (honest!!)...

Ayr 4.05 Sizing Codelco 33/1, ew 5pl - seriously well handicapped on his best form and a lot better than his figures (and letters) suggest. The other Sizing (Tennessee) is actually my main bet in the race but doesn't quite qualify but is even better handicapped on the pick of his form. How about a forecast, even?

Ayr 4.05 Henri Parry Morgan 25/1 - this is just some sickness insurance (win only to coffee money) because it owes me. But for all the world he looked like a 160 horse when just getting competitive in the Whitbread a couple of years ago but he fell and his form never really recovered. I suspect he might either win or blow out again, probably the latter but he does owe me.

Good luck all with all your longshots today. I'm off out for the day and won't be around again until some time tomorrow, afternoon probably.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ayr 4.40 Sky Khan 20/1 (ew 4pl) - He was on a nice curve in the spring of 2016 (third in the Martin Pipe and fifth, giving weight, at Punchestown to Anabale Fly) and saw his mark rise to 140. He couldn’t beat carpets since but he’s had the winter off and could surprise if anywhere near his old level.
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Back to the previous conversation, I also backed Sky Khan this morning, although I didn't put it up as I backed it at 16's. My two main bets in the Scottish National were Ballyoptic 16/1 antepost, and Sizing Tennessee at 16/1 this morning at, so we are definitely in sync today.
 
Running total

Win -3
Place -3
= -6

Nottingham 6.15 - Duggary 28/1(WH, 25s PP/Lads)

I'm going to take a chance on this one tonight I'm the 10f C6 handicap at Nottingham tonight. Was probably seen to best effect in his last run of last season over 10f on soft ground at Pontefract, running on to be a never nearer 7l 5th to Mark Johnston's Austrian School.

Providing he's wound up sufficiently here I believe he can go well off a mark of 62. Ran in some warm maidens behind the likes of White Mocha and Wells Farhh Go and whilst fairly beaten he wasn't disgraced.

This race looks fairly weak to me and I think Kevin Frost's charge can step his form up a level as the season progresses. He could just be a bit of value today. Im willing to put a line through his penultimate run where I'm assuming he didn't handle the all weather.
 
Maruco said:
Back to the previous conversation, I also backed Sky Khan this morning, although I didn't put it up as I backed it at 16's. My two main bets in the Scottish National were Ballyoptic 16/1 antepost, and Sizing Tennessee at 16/1 this morning at, so we are definitely in sync today.
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Unlucky,good shout both of you and i followed you in.ran a cracker.
 
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Navan 3:45 Captain Midnight. 20/1.One of the best handicapped horses in the field. This Bushranger gelding has served connections well down the years and usually goes well early-season. He had a pipe opener just four days ago which I view as a positive. Georoid's onboard . These amateurs are always desperate to prove themselves when they manage to get their leg over. :) Marble Copyrighted 2018.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Great minds, then... :lol:

Moving swiftly on...


Two other longshots in the Spring Cup, each of which I'd argue could have a strong winning chance and are therefore seriously overpriced.

Keyser Soze 22/1 (ew, 5pl)

Gabrial 28/1 (likewise)

Keyser Soze's chance isn’t as obvious as Gabrial's but he was very heavily backed to win the Britannia when last seen and has presumably had a reason for his lengthy absence. If they thought he had the winning of the Britannia, a classier race than this, they must think a lot of him, presumably better than a handicapper, plus he’s entitled to have improved a lot over the winter. He’ll never get into a mega-handicap off his current mark so they’ll want to get him a hike. The worry is that there doesn't seem to be any money for him so maybe today is just a sighter.

Gabrial was right back in form in the Lincoln so he’s fit and well and up to winning this on that form. The Lincoln was a better race than this. Again, though, I'm not detecting anything positive in the market.
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2 nice places there.well done.
 
For Tanlic's benefit, 28/1, 22/1, 20/1, and 16/1 places today. You're a pretty harsh critic when you're on the Thai Grog. :whistle::lol:
 
Maruco said:
For Tanlic's benefit, 28/1, 22/1, 20/1, and 16/1 places today. You're a pretty harsh critic when you're on the Thai Grog. :whistle::lol:
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Well done to all those great judges and Tanlic I rushed on here after the Scottish National because I thought I had posted the winner. I had posted it on another forum and thought I had copied and pasted it on here- so was gutted when I realised my mistake :(otherwise we could have had another nice priced winner on here.
 
Marble said:
Navan 3:45 Captain Midnight. 20/1.One of the best handicapped horses in the field. This Bushranger gelding has served connections well down the years and usually goes well early-season. He had a pipe opener just four days ago which I view as a positive. Georoid's onboard . These amateurs are always desperate to prove themselves when they manage to get their leg over. :) Marble Copyrighted 2018.
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:)
 
Marble said:
Navan 3:45 Captain Midnight. 20/1.One of the best handicapped horses in the field. This Bushranger gelding has served connections well down the years and usually goes well early-season. He had a pipe opener just four days ago which I view as a positive. Georoid's onboard . These amateurs are always desperate to prove themselves when they manage to get their leg over. :) Marble Copyrighted 2018.
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Great shout Marble - very well done. :adore:
 
Navan 5:50 Athenry Boy each way. Up against a red hot favourite but great each way value in his own right at 25/1. All I'm really after is a first three finish for the each way money. He's on nice enough rating as it happens. Hoping for a good ride from Wayne Lordan.
 
I've only just caught up with yesterday's racing.

I suspect we'll never get 25/1 Keyser Soze again. It will be interesting to see what kind of markup Timeform suggests. The best horse in that race by a mile.

I also got great runs for my money from Gabrial and Sky Khan who might have won if he'd been ridden from just a couple of lengths closer.

Great shout from Marble too.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've only just caught up with yesterday's racing.

I suspect we'll never get 25/1 Keyser Soze again. It will be interesting to see what kind of markup Timeform suggests. The best horse in that race by a mile.

I also got great runs for my money from Gabrial and Sky Khan who might have won if he'd been ridden from just a couple of lengths closer.

Great shout from Marble too.
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Des I think you had some real bad luck mate with some of those. The day Jamie Spencer gets there a bit too soon is definitely not your day ! Some excellent efforts mate.


Marble that's a cracking winner mate well done.
 
Tanlic said:
Has any c*nt had a horse placed yet? seriously have they?
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Although I can't be arsed to do it I'm sure if you went through the thread from start to finish whether you staked e/w or win only the thread as a whole would be well in profit.

I don't think you can ask much more than that from a open forum where people are putting up selections in most cases with a lot of hard work and thought behind them and they are sticking them up F.O.C.

I'd guarantee that there are a lot of paid for services that probably couldn't match up to the results on this thread.

Some top work by all the contributors involved imo.
 
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