The Long Shot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Gwd 1.50 Not So Sleepy 22/1 - Adam Kirby has actually won this the last three seasons and we know Hughie Morrison doesn’t send them to festival meetings unless he likes their chances so Not So Sleepy might well outrun his longish odds. He's among my top ratings for the race.
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Desperately unlucky not to have been placed at least/worst. Never got daylight from over three out.
 
Desert Orchid said:
This race is more like a glorified handicap with only 6lbs between them all on current ORs and 8lbs on RPRs. My gut says to leave the race alone but the two who might just be over-priced are Suedois (13/2) and Karar.
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Glorified handicap indeed. I wonder if Tudhope felt he only had to catch Breton Rock and wasn't aware of the winner's late charge. Only a ba'hair in it at the line :(
 
I know this is aftertiming but I'm looking after a friends whippet that [like most whippets] tends to sneak into the bedroom and disappear under the duvet, so I had to have a last minute bet on Under the Covers at 25/1 [it's price then shot in] as I'd've kicked myself if it won!
 
Nice one. You deserve it. You've put with more shite from me throughout the years than what a whippet does before a dog race . :)
 
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Well tomorrow I will find out if my little anti post on Vale Of Kent for The golden Mile on Friday is doomed. At least we will see how good he is in the last race tomorrow.
 
Gwd 1.50 Great Sound 33/1 - I should say straight away that I think Lil Rockerfeller is a stone cold bonking certainty and should be closer to even money than 100/30 if he can translate his hurdles ability back to the flat. I reckon you're getting that price simply about him being able to do that and the marathon trip will play to his strengths. If not then Coeur De Lion might be the one to take advantage. However, Great sound is second-top on my figures and is one of the outsiders so definitely worth a small interest. He’s never raced beyond an extended 1¾ miles but his dosage profile offers some encouragement that this marathon might suit. Very lightly raced, he went up to 92 for John Gosden last September but subsequently disappointed and moved to Richard Hughes earlier this season but the owner hasn’t sold him. He’s back down to 84 here so if this trip holds the key to offsetting a lack of pace he could be dangerous.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I should say straight away that I think Lil Rockerfeller is a stone cold bonking certainty and should be closer to even money than 100/30 if he can translate his hurdles ability back to the flat. I reckon you're getting that price simply about him being able to do that and the marathon trip will play to his strengths.
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Won like it :)
 
Just one today.

Gwd 1.50 Crownthorpe 22/1 - Again, not my main bet in the race and this is really just sickness insurance as I have him joint-top on bare ratings but honestly fancy one or two others more. This is from my preview:

It actually only occurred to me yesterday evening that I hadn’t ‘done’ this meeting for the last couple of years due to holiday commitments. This race is some way more valuable than the last time I did it in 2015 and I still look for the race which, in my head, is still the Extel (occasionally the PTS Laurels). It’s almost invariably won by an improver and/or by Mark Johnston so that’s the logical place to start given he’s sending two down for this. He hasn’t won it since 2014 either so with each passing year you can’t help but wonder what he’s laid out for it! Both of his reps command respect but I’ll be looking elsewhere, probably to my cost. For some reason, I have Crownthorpe noted as possibly improving for the trip but that must be down to something in the formbook analysis. I’m not convinced he’ll truly appreciate it being by Monsieur Bond but his breeding does include plenty of stamina with Northern Dancer in both halves. Four others are noted for similar reasons. Maverick Officer will almost certainly improve for the step up from a mile based on his stamina and he is a must for the short list. Sing Out Loud is another but he has slightly more to do on form and is shorter in the betting. I’m happy to let him perhaps win unbacked. The other two are Completion and Al Jellaby. Completion made little show in the Britannia but was on a nice curve before that. He’d been second to Crack On Crack On in a very hot Haydock Silver Bowl and on breeding should relish this trip. Al Jellaby’s form is simply strong and improving but should improve again on breeding. The other big improver is Bathsheba Bay who had to sit and suffer waiting for room in which to deliver his challenge last time before running on well beaten just a half-length in a race the form of which was franked by Alfarris on Tuesday. I’m going to look for a wee bit of value and suggest Maverick Officer as the main bet with Completion carrying the saver but really just about anything could win.
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A lot of arse-covering going on there :lol:
 
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From yesterday:
It’s almost invariably won by an improver and/or by Mark Johnston so that’s the logical place to start given he’s sending two down for this. He hasn’t won it since 2014 either so with each passing year you can’t help but wonder what he’s laid out for it! Both of his reps command respect but I’ll be looking elsewhere, probably to my cost.
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Prophetic or what?

Oh well.

First up today:

Gwd 3.00 Hayadh 50/1 - This is just a speculative longshot to back up my main bet and main saver. Hayadh is well under the radar due to his trainer as much as his form figures but he was a smart juvenile for Al Shaqab and John Gosden before missing the next two years. Sold to Rebecca Bastiman at the start of this season, he hit the ground running but has been a bit in and out since then. His best run was in a neck defeat at Wetherby in May in a strong-looking race won by Original Choice when he did too much out in front. That suggested he is better than the bare form which also suggested he was improving. Merely turning up here off the same mark could explain his subsequent defeats and he has the ideal jockey for getting an early lead despite the draw and he’s 3lbs better off with Original Choice (who’s about 16/1) for a neck. He's just too big a price to ignore completely.
 
Need to squeeze this one in before it shortens up:

Gwd 5.15 Occupy 20/1 - one of two longshots I'm happy to take against the field (I'll post the other once I've got the price) in a modest-looking race. Occupy, at around 20/1, is also overpriced given that he looks to have a decent chance of improving past the race-winning norm. He put up a career best on my figures when fifth in the KGV at Ascot despite meeting trouble in running. I have that as a very hot race and the form has been franked several times. A disappointing run since then requires forgiving but there has to be every chance there was a reason for that or that they let him down after the big meeting to allow him a bit of R&R. I suspect the Melrose is the target but he’s too big a price here to ignore.
 
I’m not sure a 33/1 chance in the Stewards Cup constitutes a long shot but Solar Flair is incredibly well handicapped, especially when taking into account the jockey’s 5lb claim and should be well positioned throughout from a decent enough draw.

He’s running from 16lb lower than when a close up 8th in this last year and 15lb below his AW mark in his last race; a class 2 handicap at Chelmsford.

He has a 12lb pull for a 4 length beating by George Bowen here in May yet the latter is less than half his price.

In truth, he’s likely to find one or two too good but he has rock solid place claims at a big price.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Need to squeeze this one in before it shortens up:

Gwd 5.15 Occupy 20/1 - one of two longshots I'm happy to take against the field (I'll post the other once I've got the price) in a modest-looking race. Occupy, at around 20/1, is also overpriced given that he looks to have a decent chance of improving past the race-winning norm. He put up a career best on my figures when fifth in the KGV at Ascot despite meeting trouble in running. I have that as a very hot race and the form has been franked several times. A disappointing run since then requires forgiving but there has to be every chance there was a reason for that or that they let him down after the big meeting to allow him a bit of R&R. I suspect the Melrose is the target but he’s too big a price here to ignore.
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Same race, same reason:

King's Proctor 33/1 - I was tempted to leave this race alone as it’s not particularly valuable but I’m just going to go with my ratings and punt Mark Johnston’s King’s Proctor at a nice price. Jockey bookings suggest he’s been passed over by other riders with closer associations to the yard but I wouldn’t let that put me off where this trainer is concerned.
 
wilsonl said:
I’m not sure a 33/1 chance in the Stewards Cup constitutes a long shot but Solar Flair is incredibly well handicapped, especially when taking into account the jockey’s 5lb claim and should be well positioned throughout from a decent enough draw.

He’s running from 16lb lower than when a close up 8th in this last year and 15lb below his AW mark in his last race; a class 2 handicap at Chelmsford.

He has a 12lb pull for a 4 length beating by George Bowen here in May yet the latter is less than half his price.

In truth, he’s likely to find one or two too good but he has rock solid place claims at a big price.
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He's very much on my radar too, wilsonl. I think I put him up earlier in the thread for a race at Newmarket but he bombed. He's since hit form with a vengeance and might be lobbed in. But so might several others! I'm just typing up my figures and thoughts at the moment.
 
wilsonl said:
I’m not sure a 33/1 chance in the Stewards Cup constitutes a long shot but Solar Flair is incredibly well handicapped, especially when taking into account the jockey’s 5lb claim and should be well positioned throughout from a decent enough draw.

He’s running from 16lb lower than when a close up 8th in this last year and 15lb below his AW mark in his last race; a class 2 handicap at Chelmsford.

He has a 12lb pull for a 4 length beating by George Bowen here in May yet the latter is less than half his price.

In truth, he’s likely to find one or two too good but he has rock solid place claims at a big price.
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I like reading other views especially when its a horse i havent looked at.ive had a look at this solar flair aand although hes probably is better on the a/w i have to say it looks to have an excellent chancein fact ive just took 25/1.
Of course im only expecting him to be 2nd as ive done GIFTED MASTER a/p at 33/1
Good luck.
 
First up for tomorrow:

Stewards' Cup - Quench Dolly 80/1 (boosted / Lads) - she was on a steep curve last back-end and returned to form after a sharp drop in the handicap last time. She went up to 99 last October for winning at this course (5f) and took advantage of an 11lbs drop last time over 7f so she has speed and stamina. She also goes for inexperienced riders.
 
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Looks like I got on in the nick of time. She's gone blue across the board and down to 33s with Ladbrokes, no better than 20/1 with at least one firm.
 
Good luck. I mentioned Quench Dolly before it won last time on the other thread. 100/1 80/1 was too big.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Stewards' Cup - Quench Dolly 80/1 (boosted / Lads)
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She went up to 99 last October for winning at this course (5f) and took advantage of an 11lbs drop last time over 7f so she has speed and stamina.
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This needs correcting. I've just noticed I misread her last race. The '7' was the value of the race, not the distance. That said, I'm not concerned about the trip since she's got good form at six at Windsor and Newmarket.
 
I look like having four longshots in the Stewards' Cup. I backed QD last night. Next up this morning:

Poyle Vinnie 50/1 - ran well for us at a price the other week at Ascot, beaten two lengths by Spring Loaded. The latter’s penalty should bring them together but he’s 7/1 compared to Poyle Vinnie at 50/1! However, anyone watching the race wouldn’t seriously expect Poyle Vinnie to turn it around. Then again, I felt he was keeping a little to himself that day after travelling very strongly into contention. He has plenty of back-class having been a half-length runner-up in the 2015 Ayr Gold Cup off 103 and was competitive at this meeting last year off 99. He’s been ticking over in his two recent runs and, for me, he’s overpriced again.

I'll post the other two as and when I get the prices I want.
 
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Shame about QD. Next longshot in the race is:

Tupi 50/1 - won the Cammidge Trophy early last season on his first run back from the Middle East and was in form there earlier this season. He went up to 109 for Doncaster last year and gets in here off 12lbs lower but it has to be noted that he’s been running pretty poorly but no surprise if that's been deliberate ahead of this.
 
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