The Long Shot Thread

Fairyhouse 3:10 - Ivanovich Gorbatov each way. It does feel like a long time since Ivanovich Gorbatov won the Triumph Hurdle. It's been over two years since he won it at Cheltenham, on good ground. He gets the same ground today. Rightly or wrongly, he's rank outsider of the McManus horses, but he is young enough to return to form, still only a 6yo, if good enough. I fancy he will return to form this season, on approximately a stone lower mark, than he was after he won The Triumph. It is a long shot, but 40/1 on his favoured good ground, is worth trying in the each way market. A bit of market support wouldn't do his chance any harm.
 
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Fairyhouse 1.35 Cubomania 66/1 - on overall form should probably be in the first six or seven in the market, at which point the general price is less than 10/1, so even in the 12/1-16/1 range he could be a bit of value. I've also taken 14/1 place-only. Coffee money, mind...

(Note, though, that in the market he's weaker than a used teabag.)
 
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Fairyhouse 2.10 Kilkishen 33/1 - would probably be less than half this price if he hadn't run last time when his jumping let him down. Hopefully a couple of months off will see him over that lapse. Another bad round though and 66/1 wouldn't be value.
 
Fairyhouse 2.40 Wicklow Brave 50/1 - on his best form he's as good as anything else in the field. Whether he'll be arsed to show it is another matter but he runs to form more often than once in 51 runs...
 
Marble said:
Fairyhouse 3:10 - Ivanovich Gorbatov each way. It does feel like a long time since Ivanovich Gorbatov won the Triumph Hurdle. It's been over two years since he won it at Cheltenham, on good ground. He gets the same ground today. Rightly or wrongly, he's rank outsider of the McManus horses, but he is young enough to return to form, still only a 6yo, if good enough. I fancy he will return to form this season, on approximately a stone lower mark, than he was after he won The Triumph. It is a long shot, but 40/1 on his favoured good ground, is worth trying in the each way market. A bit of market support wouldn't do his chance any harm.
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Certainly well handicapped. I'm going to be contrary and go with stablemate Plinth at 28/1 ew to 6 places (Sky).
 
Throwing another JP runner into the mix here with Blazer at 20/1 (6 places)


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This is a huge stab in the dark but Clutching at Straws caught my eye (at a very low level) last time out and having sickness insurance on him today in the first at Fairyhouse. 66/1 with bookies. EW or place only.
 
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Fairyhouse 3.10 Cut The Mustard 40/1 - I've always felt this horse is a decent mare in her own right. Sacrificed at the festival to make the running for the same owners Laurina. Was travelling well at the Fairyhouse festival when she fell although for some strange reason Sporting life has her pulling up. She looked over the top at the Punchestown festival.I have a gut feeling she is better than her current mark in a handicap for the first time, although the owners do have another horse in the race ridden by Ruby so I will have a cover bet on that one.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Fairyhouse 1.35 Cubomania 66/1 - on overall form should probably be in the first six or seven in the market, at which point the general price is less than 10/1, so even in the 12/1-16/1 range he could be a bit of value. I've also taken 14/1 place-only. Coffee money, mind...
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Right on the heels of the leaders and travelling as well as any of them when tipping up two out. Would have been interesting to see how he went from there. The first two seemed to quicken away after the last but I reckon he'd have been in with a shout for third place.
 
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swedish chef said:
Fairyhouse 3.10 Cut The Mustard 40/1 - I've always felt this horse is a decent mare in her own right. Sacrificed at the festival to make the running for the same owners Laurina. Was travelling well at the Fairyhouse festival when she fell although for some strange reason Sporting life has her pulling up. She looked over the top at the Punchestown festival.I have a gut feeling she is better than her current mark in a handicap for the first time, although the owners do have another horse in the race ridden by Ruby so I will have a cover bet on that one.
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Well there for a very long way, chef. I was shouting it on but maybe it didn't quite stay.
 
Apologies to anyone who followed mine. Seemed like a good idea at the time! A shadow of his former self.
 
Sandown 1:55 - This race looks ripe for a big priced horse to get involved. Molly Carew won a couple of novice hurdles about eighteen months ago; While she has (for the most part) disappointed since, she is still only six, and might just be extremely well handicapped for her first try over fences. 25/1 each way.
 
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Marble said:
Sandown 1:55 - This race looks ripe for a big priced horse to get involved. Molly Carew won a couple of novice hurdles about eighteen months ago; While she has (for the most part) disappointed since, she is still only six, and might just be extremely well handicapped for her first try over fences. 25/1 each way.
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Nice call
 
Scoir Mear 2.45 Navan tomorrow.
JP has 4 in the race and Mark Walsh rides which should be a plus.
A pure cliff horse but has to have a good race in him on Coral Cup run a few years ago.
20/1 with Lads,Boyles/Coral an ew bet methinks.
if feeling really lucky, ew double with Lady In Lavender Sunday Cork 2.50
 
1.30 aintree

Federici 33/1
I once thought this horse was going to win a national but never progressed and doesnt stay that far but should be ok at this distance and will like the going. Hopefully Brian Hughes will get him into a rhythm near the front.
 
Outsider said:
1.30 aintree

Federici 33/1
I once thought this horse was going to win a national but never progressed and doesnt stay that far but should be ok at this distance and will like the going. Hopefully Brian Hughes will get him into a rhythm near the front.
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He rang a bell with me too, Outsider, but I'm going to be too heavily committed in the race already to back him as well :(

(I haven't looked at any of the betting yet so don't even know if I'll have any qualifiers today.)

I should maybe add at this point that I've taken two ante-post bets in the National. I think I mentioned Un Temps Pour Tout earlier in the thread (66/1 taken twice so far) and I've followed it up with Noble Endeavor at 50/1.

I don't expect NE to win today. I anticipate that today is all about a) getting him qualified and b) getting some experience of the fences. If he ends up with another few pounds off his back for April, so much the better.
 
San 1.20 Little Boy Boru 20/1 - Top on my ratings and Harry Cobden looks an interesting booking for a small operation on a horse that is a stone lower than its peak.
 
Outsider said:
1.30 aintree

Federici 33/1
I once thought this horse was going to win a national but never progressed and doesnt stay that far but should be ok at this distance and will like the going. Hopefully Brian Hughes will get him into a rhythm near the front.
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A good run for my money.bit greedy as i could have had 25s for 5 places.never mind.
Well done with yours DO
 
Yes, I had half an eye on it through the race hoping it would get a place for you (while hoping it wouldn't beat mine :lol:)
 
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