The Long Shot Thread

3.50 Doncaster. Artair 20/1. Have followed this horse from his first run when he was well touted at Windsor. Must have been well thought of to run in a listed race after winning his maiden and went well for a long way before stopping quickly. Has had his wind done by looks of things and his last run was a step forward where he hit the line strongly as if the 6f would be what he needs. Been dropped 2lb for that and think he’ll go well at a big price.
 
November hcap

FUN MAC dropped dramatically in the weights and 50/1 looks big.

I will be looking at the extra place market as well.
 
Outsider said:
November hcap

FUN MAC dropped dramatically in the weights and 50/1 looks big.

I will be looking at the extra place market as well.
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Fun Mac is among my top rated horses on its best form but I'm not sure about the drop back in trip. Place prospects for sure but I think I'd rather take something like 10/1 place-only (if I could get it) than anticipate a possible win.
 
Wincanton 3.00 John Constable 33/1 - anyone following the forum for the last year or two will know how highly I rate this horse's best form but he's been seriously disappointing pretty much since going up to 156 for winning the big summer handicap hurdle at Market Rasen last year but that rating would make him the equal of We Have A Dream, who concedes 3lbs, and better than If The Cap Fits and they are the pair disputing favouritism. Obviously his disappointing form is the reason for his price but on his best form he is no 33/1 shot. Richard Johnson, surprisingly, has been booked for the ride. In all honesty, though, this is really a sickness insurance and/or cliff horse situation.

There's another at Wincanton that almost qualifies. If it drifts enough I'll post it.

(I think I must have been a stripper in a previous life.)
 
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JC is overpriced I agree but I've never liked the ratings angle when assessing older horses against rivals coming out of novice or even juvenile company
 
Euronymous said:
JC is overpriced I agree but I've never liked the ratings angle when assessing older horses against rivals coming out of novice or even juvenile company
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It's one of the fascinating aspects of the jumps game, for sure. I'm in the opposite camp, obviously. For me the expectations of 'what might be' regarding novices means their odds will more often than not be shorter than their true chance.

Having said that, I'm now wondering if I'm contradicting myself in that I've said before that I 'allow' novice chasers in their second season 10lbs possible improvement, likewise juveniles going into their next season hurdling. I maybe haven't allowed We Have A Dream that possibility.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
There's another at Wincanton that almost qualifies. If it drifts enough I'll post it.
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This isn't the one I was referring to but it's now a qualifier:

Wincanton 3.35 - Kings Lad 20/1 - I backed this one last week in the Sodexho. This is a lesser race and he ran better than the bare form. Richard Johnson will always be a negative for me but he's the go-to guy for a lot of people so his booking should be taken as a positive.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
It's one of the fascinating aspects of the jumps game, for sure. I'm in the opposite camp, obviously. For me the expectations of 'what might be' regarding novices means their odds will more often than not be shorter than their true chance.
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It isn't just the what might be vibe, it's also maybe novices being underrated in general.
Like, I backed Wholestone last year in that Wetherby race on Charlie Hall day and the whole case against him was that he was rated
18lbs below Lil Rockerfeller and actually gave him 3 that day. Both ratings were way off
 
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Euronymous said:
it's also maybe novices being underrated in general.
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I suspect deep down we're agreeing. I allow novices a notional 10lbs to account for them being possibly under-rated. In my case it's to allow for 'natural' improvement in the off season. I think the handicapper tends to have the ratings right towards the end of the season but in general they do improve after that.
 
John Constable was never put into the race, not helped by Johnson failing to present the horse at any of the first few hurdles, getting one awfully wrong. Champion jockey my arsehole.
 
Moving on...

Sandown 2.55 Romanor 22/1 (or better) - should be a single-figure price I reckon as I have it down as a '+p' type but note that it seems very weak in the market at present.
 
First up today:

Cheltenham 1.50 Perfect Candidate 20/1 - I hope he lives up to his name for the thread's sake but I do fancy one (Vicente) slightly more strongly. Nevertheless, Perfect Candidate was a very game winner last year and appeared to be prepping for a repeat on his reappearance here three weeks ago, just as he had done last year and now he’s 2lbs lower. He’s a lovely price for a well-handicapped course specialist.
 
I've two or three longshots to coffee money stakes to back up Kalondra in the big race.

First up before the price goes is Frodon 20/1. Far too classy to be a 20/1 shot and if he improves 10lbs into this season (not hard pressed to win at Aintree, not a second-season chaser but still only six) he can run a big race. Slim mentioned yesterday that he shouldn't be 32 on Betfair and that has corrected itself (probably Slim's money) and he was 25s in more than one place earlier today. He's blue and shortening and probably won't qualify in the next half-hour so I'm getting him in early.

I've also taken 20/1 Ballyandy. He is potentially a blot if he can find 10lbs on his old hurdles form and the yard usually puts away at least one for this race.

Romain De Senam 28/1 - I have a very big historical rating for him and he got a strange ride last week.
 
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Cheltenham 3.30 Mellow Ben 25/1 - From my preview:

Mellow Ben was, to these eyes, merely weighing up the field last time, presumably ahead of this race so he’s respected but Christmas In April was another of these in that race in which they went very fast. I’m trying to work out if Cobden (Christmas In April) rode that race very astutely or slightly misjudged it but either way he found himself behind a wall of horses two out before being slightly tightened up rounding the bend and then staying on well from the last. I fancy him to confirm the form with Mellow Ben and Lungarno Palace with that run under his belt. However, Speedo Boy stands out a mile if he can translate his good Flat form back over hurdles. With only three runs last season, he now qualifies for a handicap mark which is based on those runs and which probably seriously under-rates him. He’s favourite but he’s a good favourite, I reckon. I’ll probably have a little each-way on Mellow Ben as a value pop at long odds.

So that's all it is, a bet based on the price rather than expecting it to win.
 
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Cheltenham 2.25 Happy Diva 28/1 - hasn't been out of the first 4 in 14 races over 2 years. 4lb better off with Mr Whitaker btn 2 1/2L.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cheltenham 3.30 Mellow Ben 25/1 - From my preview:

Mellow Ben was, to these eyes, merely weighing up the field last time, presumably ahead of this race so he’s respected but Christmas In April was another of these in that race in which they went very fast. I’m trying to work out if Cobden (Christmas In April) rode that race very astutely or slightly misjudged it but either way he found himself behind a wall of horses two out before being slightly tightened up rounding the bend and then staying on well from the last. I fancy him to confirm the form with Mellow Ben and Lungarno Palace with that run under his belt. However, Speedo Boy stands out a mile if he can translate his good Flat form back over hurdles. With only three runs last season, he now qualifies for a handicap mark which is based on those runs and which probably seriously under-rates him. He’s favourite but he’s a good favourite, I reckon. I’ll probably have a little each-way on Mellow Ben as a value pop at long odds.

So that's all it is, a bet based on the price rather than expecting it to win.
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Got something right.

Eventually.

Stopped clock stuff.
 
Greatwood Hurdle - Nietzsche. 20/1. A dual purpose horse who was formerly with William Haggas, now with Brian Ellison. He was off the track since June but ran a good comeback race two weeks ago on the flat where he finished second. He has every right to be in this race based on his third in The Fred Winter at The Festival. There is good market support for him tonight, into a general 20/1, I reckon he can run a huge race. To say he is well handicapped over hurdles is an understatement, the seven pound claimer is the iceing on the cake.
 
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Marble said:
Greatwood Hurdle - Nietzsche. 20/1. A dual purpose horse who was formerly with William Haggas, now with Brian Elison. He was off the track since June but ran a good comeback race two weeks ago on the flat where he finished second. He has every right to be in this race based on his third in The Fred Winter at The Festival. There is good market support for him tonight, into a general 20/1, I reckon he can run a huge race. To say he is well handicapped over hurdles is an understatement, the seven pound claimer is the iceing on the cake.
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Definitely on my short list.
 
I wouldn't wait too long to back him. Into 14's already. The Geordies are on...heavyweight gamble developing.
 
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Thanks Marb; I'm out all day tomorrow and was just looking at the race with a view to placing my bets tomorrow before I go out, and Niietzsche was one of the 4 I planned to back Deyrann de Carjac, Vado Forte and Not that Fuisse being the others. So I've put my 10 pence on it now!
 
Cheltenham 1.15 Vaniteaux 33/1 & Three Star General 40/1 both William Hill. I can't remember the last time the Pipe yard has left this meeting without a winner or placer so I am having a go at these two. Vaniteaux looks h'capped to pop up anytime and T S G is 3lb lower than his last win over hurdles. Neither would surprise me if they ran well. Pipes record in this race - 2012 2nd 5/1 - 2013 1st & 2nd 40/1 & 14/1 - 2014 won 7/2 - 2015 Unpl 33/1 & fell 33/1 - 2016 unpl 9/1 - 2017 no runners.
 
I actually backed Unblinking in the first. A bit like yesterday with Royal Vacation, I believed for all the world that the way he was travellng, my luck was about to change. Just seemed to bump into an even better one. Hard to take. It feels like Shantou Flyer in The William Hill last March at The Festival version three.
 
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Marble said:
Greatwood Hurdle - Nietzsche. 20/1. A dual purpose horse who was formerly with William Haggas, now with Brian Ellison. He was off the track since June but ran a good comeback race two weeks ago on the flat where he finished second. He has every right to be in this race based on his third in The Fred Winter at The Festival. There is good market support for him tonight, into a general 20/1, I reckon he can run a huge race. To say he is well handicapped over hurdles is an understatement, the seven pound claimer is the iceing on the cake.
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Great shout


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