The Long Shot Thread

Marble said:
Greatwood Hurdle - Nietzsche. 20/1. A dual purpose horse who was formerly with William Haggas, now with Brian Ellison. He was off the track since June but ran a good comeback race two weeks ago on the flat where he finished second. He has every right to be in this race based on his third in The Fred Winter at The Festival. There is good market support for him tonight, into a general 20/1, I reckon he can run a huge race. To say he is well handicapped over hurdles is an understatement, the seven pound claimer is the iceing on the cake.
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Excellent shout Martin
 
Cheers everyone. The seconditis has finally come to an end. I hope Moehat had her 50p each way on! :)
 
Nietzsche was too well handicapped and too well primed to be denied today.
 
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Just arrived home and looked at the result. Think I only got 16's in the end but I bet it would have been shorter if I'd waited till today. Also tipped it to a friend so got a bit of kudos also! I find that the horses that are top rated on the W Hill site often win be it at the top of the handicap or the bottom and Nietzsche was near the bottom. Now to spend a pleasant couple of hours watching it on catchup. Happy days!
 
Marble said:
Greatwood Hurdle - Nietzsche. 20/1. A dual purpose horse who was formerly with William Haggas, now with Brian Ellison. He was off the track since June but ran a good comeback race two weeks ago on the flat where he finished second. He has every right to be in this race based on his third in The Fred Winter at The Festival. There is good market support for him tonight, into a general 20/1, I reckon he can run a huge race. To say he is well handicapped over hurdles is an understatement, the seven pound claimer is the iceing on the cake.
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Well done Marble!!
 
Thanks fella, you've been quiet, hope all is well out there in Thailand.
 
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I know Desert Orchid doesn't give him much of a chance, but as mentioned on the Ladbrokes Trophy Thread, Dingo Dollar is my next 'to punt' horse, assuming he makes it on the day. I am desperate to try to make a few quid this jumps season: to make up for quite a poor long losing run. Ps, I don't sit in my underpants typing on here all day! I am a busy man, so I just want to pick out various 'to punt' horses this season, in the feature races, then see if I can get some better results. At 33 years of age I have come to the conclusion I will never make flat racing pay, and must find better stuff to do on a Saturday in the summer than try to suss out good flat bets! :)
 
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Dingo Dollar is the King stable top eyecatcher in my Jumping Prospects book. Trainer says he 'doesn't want it too soft and will have an entry in the Ladbroke'.
 
Marble said:
Greatwood Hurdle - Nietzsche. 20/1. A dual purpose horse who was formerly with William Haggas, now with Brian Ellison. He was off the track since June but ran a good comeback race two weeks ago on the flat where he finished second. He has every right to be in this race based on his third in The Fred Winter at The Festival. There is good market support for him tonight, into a general 20/1, I reckon he can run a huge race. To say he is well handicapped over hurdles is an understatement, the seven pound claimer is the iceing on the cake.
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Well done mate.i backed the 2nd.
 
Shades Of Midnight @ 20/1 1/4 odds first 3 (Bet365) is a decent bet in a 8 runner race running off a winning mark. Downside is a NR
 
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I've also got a small ew saver on John Constable 33/1 in the Haydock 1.50. Call it sickness insurance as the horse owes me serious money but there can be no denying he is very well handicapped on his best form. I just worry that he simply will not be asked a serious question, as is so often the case.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've also got a small ew saver on John Constable 33/1 in the Haydock 1.50. Call it sickness insurance as the horse owes me serious money but there can be no denying he is very well handicapped on his best form. I just worry that he simply will not be asked a serious question, as is so often the case.
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Travelled fairly well at the back till the one in front clattered one bringing him down.
 
Copied and pasted from the Ladbrokes Trophy thread:

I've taken another nibble at my top-rated Flying Angel at 33/1.

I think that race at Ascot last week was hotter than I'd anticipated and the handicapper appears to agree, hiking the winner 9lbs and Flying Angel 4lbs so he'll be that much well in on Saturday, getting to race off 142, compared with the 157 he went up to for beating Cloudy Dream (then 153, subsequently 159) and Top Notch (158, 164) in the big Aintree novices chase in 2017.

Flying Angel had a dismal time of it last season but last week was a big step forward from his seasonal debut behind Frodon. With Go Conquer very weak in the market it looks like he'll be the stable's main hope.

Assuming he runs, of course...
 
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Jeez... a year already...

Desert Orchid said:
Newbury 3.00 Beer Goggles 50/1

Thistlecrack is a very short-priced favourite for this with the weights so much in his favour but I just wonder if a lack of fitness combined with the return to hurdles as well as the fact he’s been injured might leave him vulnerable. I can’t imagine this is that serious a target for him so will risk opposing him. Unowhatimeanharry is the obvious one given he has already made a successful return to action but I’m going to take a wild punt on Beer Goggles. If my figure is right for him there is absolutely no way he should be as long as 66/1 (last night) even though they’re only paying two places. Betfair last night had an option of three places at reduced odds of 22/1 so I’ve taken that too.
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I'd forgotten about it until I noticed it in the list of past winners!
 
Excuse as I'm pushed for time and I haven't checked the latest prices but I thought Allyson Monterg was the best of the outsiders in the Ladbroke think about 25/1, Also a Newbury Voodoo doll, Baby King, Le musse all around the same price are worth a second look.

Big chief Benny is a massive price at 40/1 to overcome a long layoff if your into that sort of thing he's pretty decent if he's anywhere near ready.

Nowt Major on any of them myself but worth the once over.

Apolgies le musse has seen plenty of money and is no longer a qualifier for the thread.
 
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