The Long Shot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Yala Enki 20/1 carries a small bet in the Welsh National. Otago Trail was handicapped to win a big race but VW sent him elsewhere and relies instead on this old warrior. I'm inferring, perhaps misguidedly, that he has found unexpected improvement this season at home. Needless to say, if EE is over his Newbury exertions he wins as easily as Native River (and he's a bigger price).
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A welcome change of fortune.
 
Thought you had it there pal on yala enki ! Good shout for the place in any case at a price

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Leopardstown 2:25

This race looks open for an outsider to be involved,

With this in mind, Alan Fleming's KHUDHA ran better last time, finishing eight. He's four years old, turning five in a few days. My thoughts are that he might have been plotted for a handicap like this for a long time. I will watch the betting market with interest: Currently top price 28/1 with Bet 365.
 
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Marble said:
Leopardstown 2:25

This race looks open for an outsider to be involved,

With this in mind, Alan Fleming's KHUDHA ran better last time, finishing eight. He's four years old, turning five in a few days. My thoughts are that he might have been plotted for a handicap like this for a long time. I will watch the betting market with interest: Currently top price 28/1 with Bet 365.
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I had a look at his last run marble and stuck it in my alerts..today was too bad to be true.
 
Marble said:
Sandown 1:55 - This race looks ripe for a big priced horse to get involved. Molly Carew won a couple of novice hurdles about eighteen months ago; While she has (for the most part) disappointed since, she is still only six, and might just be extremely well handicapped for her first try over fences. 25/1 each way.
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Molley Carew runs in Fakenhams 3:05 tomorrow. Surely won't start at 25/1 but should be able to win in any event.
 
Cheltenham 2.35 - Forecast 33/1 - I had no intention of backing this one since I'm backing two others in the race. It was only when I saw he was this price I decided I couldn't let him go unbacked [to small stakes, obviously]. He has form with the two I like the most and really shouldn't be much longer than them in the market. Knowing my luck he'll run well and miss a payout place by one...

... and my two will be out the back :confused:
 
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2.15 Muss. Nuts Well 20/1 generally

Won first time up a chase on good ground off a mark of 136 from Vosnee Romenee who went on to win again and is a real decent sort. Blundered in a chase next time out and pulled up. Then reverted to hurdles on softer ground (looked very testing) and was there or thereabouts before fading late on the beaten distance looks worse than it was after a mistake at the last. Last time NW was in a hurdle race on good ground he ran off a mark of 131 won by 3 lengths with comments "ridden clear, comfortably" which would make you at least think he could make the frame here off 135 amongst a bunch who don't look to hold too many secrets form the handicapper. 20/1 too big.
 
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Thought he had it in the bag mate at they turned had been been held up so far back off a suicidal gallop I thought he'd make it tell. Cracking effort with that one though D.O.
 
Just one for me today:

Sandown 3.00 - Theatre Guide 22/1 - Ladbrokes are boosting it to 25/1 and paying five places so I went for that rather than the sixth place with Sky at shorter odds. Along with the likes of Tenor Nivernais, this horse has serious back-class and with this race now so valuable it's far from beyond the realms of probability that it has been a long-term plan for declining old-timers, just as it was with Buywise last year. With Theatre Guide we're looking at a horse that eight runs ago was a close third in the Whitbread off 152; two runs before that was a good third in the RP Trophy off 153 and two runs before that won a Grade 3 at Cheltenham off 149. He appeared to lose his form last year but there was a little more promise on his most recent run and his current 137 rating gives him a huge chance IF he has one last blast in him. Purely on the handicap I prefer Tenor Nivernais but he doesn't qualify on price. Yet.
 
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Great minds think alike.or something like that.
I've done the same 2 plus my 9ld friend HOUBLON DES OBEAUX who is on his lowest mark ever.took 20/1 last night.
 
Outsider said:
Great minds think alike.or something like that.
I've done the same 2 plus my 9ld friend HOUBLON DES OBEAUX who is on his lowest mark ever.took 20/1 last night.
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Great shout, Outsider. I looked twice at him last night before reluctantly letting him go as I had a list of about seven I was thinking about!

Great price too!

Hope you did the forecast!!!
 
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Plumpton 2.40 - Rightdownthemiddle 33/1 generally, 40/1 in a place - Hard to fancy on current or recent form, hence his price, but a lot of those poor runs were over hurdles for Gordon Elliott when the chances are he was just training in public.

But a couple of seasons back he was competitive off marks in the low-mid 130s in good races at Aintree (£39k to the winner), Leopardstown (51k) and Gowran (20k) and he was running well at biggish odds. He was also running respectably at Perth as recently as the summer there.

This is only his second run for new connections and he maybe needed the first.

Clearly it's a risky bet but I'm not convinced he should be 33/1 or more.
 
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Apologies. That was pish awful. Cleared every fence by a mile and probably lost two or three lengths with every jump as a result so beaten within the first mile.
 
I’ll stick up Beadlam in the 18,15 28/1 seems generous for a CD winner on a lowly mark. It’s also bet365 feature race so you get your stake back in a free bet for the next feature race if you win. ;)
 
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Sedgefield 1.20 Dolly's Dot 25/1 - With jockey's claim is effectively 3lbs lower than when winning over c/d and grade last march. Lightly raced and I like the style of the amateur jockey riding her. Odds look value.
 
Just one again for me today.

Warwick 3.35 - Ritual Of Senses 40/1 generally - This one jumped out at me last night and I've no idea why. I checked through the form and can't find any reason why it would hit me like that. Maybe the name cropped up when I was checking out something else but somewhere along the line this has been on my mind. Perhaps it was entered in recent weeks and didn't run. Anyroads...

I have reasons for opposing most of this field I can’t bring myself to fancy anything else so a small interest on Ritual Of Senses as the rank outsider appeals. With his highly-rated claimer taking the ride on his first run for over two years he might need to get up the weights to qualify for the final and who knows how many of the others are actually interested in winning. Maybe not the soundest of reasons, I admit.
 
Gracious George 340L class 6
A poor race and a poor horse who is 9 yrs of age and probably regressing.
Are you still reading.
A "friend" on another forum thought this was a non Trier a couple of runs ago and asked me to take a look.i thought it was just one paced.
His best form is over a mile but I thought he now needs 10f which he gets today.
He has now dropped to 45 but has to run off 46 today but has a capable 7lb claimer on.
I thought 16/1 last night was a bit stingy but he has now drifted to 50/1.
I've had a bit of that,80/1 bet 365 extra place 2 horse market and 20/1 in the 7 place market.
I will probably look a fool again tonight,but I cant resist.
The last time it ran at lingfield it finished 4th off 55.
Last time at kempton it was 8th not beaten far and the 5th has won and finished 2nd off 59.
7th that day (level weight) was woggle who ran well for 3rd last Saturday.off 50.
So those are my reasons.
 
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