The Long Shot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
I should maybe add at this point that I've taken two ante-post bets in the National. I think I mentioned Un Temps Pour Tout earlier in the thread (66/1 taken twice so far) and I've followed it up with Noble Endeavor at 50/1.

I don't expect NE to win today. I anticipate that today is all about a) getting him qualified and b) getting some experience of the fences. If he ends up with another few pounds off his back for April, so much the better.
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I'm also pretty happy with the run of Noble Endeavor. Popped round safely just off the pace, made a bit of ground going to two out and wasn't asked much after that. I'm pretty sure that's him qualified to run now and, as I said, if he drops a few pounds for today even UTPT might struggle to beat him :)
 
swedish chef said:
Punchestown 4.45 Esthers Present 25/1 - available at 28/1 & 33/1 - worth risking a small e/way. Was 6th in this race last year but hasn't run since. Of those that finished the race all have improved their ratings.
1st - +16lb -- 2nd +40lb -- 3rd +10lb --4th hasn't run again -- 5th +18lb -- 6th is selection and hasn't run again -- 7th +3lb
Although the selection hasn't run for a year I'm hoping he has improved by a similar margin and this race has been his target? If so off a 3lb lower mark than last year he could be very well h'capped?
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This one came up on my tracker this evening. I've taken a small bet at 500/1.

Just in case...
 
Huntingdon 2.25 - Hammersley Lake 22/1 - I backed this one the other week in the race won by Politologue as I have a big figure for it. It faded badly from three out on the day and maybe the ground was just too soft for it or maybe it just needed it after a fruitless trip to America. Another downside is that it looked a pretty small and slight animal compared with some of its rivals that day but it has won under top weight in handicaps so maybe it's deceptive. Yet another negative is today's jockey (for me at any rate). However, Hammersley Lake went up to 165 for winning a decent handicap at Perth (good ground) off 159 but even today's lower OR of 161 makes him the highest rated horse in the field. If he runs to form he could be seriously over-priced.
 
It's only in my tracker because Chef mentioned it earlier in the thread.

I was right about Hammersley Lake's jockey being a negative. Last time at Ascot I was very impressed with HL's slick jumping along the inside. Here he gave up the outside to no-one and went through the top of a few. Having said all that, he'd never have got near the winner today (I fancied him to finish alongside God's Own) in what looked a very strongly run race. This could be very good form. God's Own was right on the job but had no answers to Charbel's pace and jumping.
 
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Cheltenham 3.40 - Buywise 33/1 - I have a knack of catching this old hound on a going day (not every time mind) and I fancy it to do something here at a smashing price. He’s used to racing in much better class over fences and on a going day would toy with this lot. Last season he ran reasonably well in much better hurdles handicaps than this off 133 and the season before he wasn’t beaten far off 140 in a decent race so he’s 15lbs lower here before taking the girl’s 7lbs claim into account. The uphill finish here will suit his style and I wouldn’t be in the least bit surprised if he popped up or even won on the bridle.
 
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I think I remember backing him in a hurdle last year Des I personally thought he needs them to go a real proper gallop and then run through horses coming back to him to stand any chance if they go no pace he hasn't got the turn of foot to get involved. I think there is talk of retirement if he fails to shine tomorrow. I haven't got the time to look into the race properly but I'll have a few shekels blind on the old goat ( that's buywise not you des haha ;) ) .
 
I have to agree Des.i thought they should have gone for the pertemps last year or the year before because of his low mark.
Sizing is another in it who is about 25lb below his chase mark.
Ive always had a soft spot (like most i think) about Buywise.
 
Hard to know if Buywise was there to win today. Maybe it was just the claimer's style but I didn't see her go after him much with the whip. She could have been riding to instructions. Either way, it didn't look good.
 
1.55 Cheltenham
I’m giving Catamaran du Seuil another chance here at 20/1. Every chance he just didn’t take to the fences last weekend and he will cope with the ground if the rain gets into it. With Charlie Hammond who rode a winner yesterday taking 5lb off this fella may have a chance


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Ascot 3.35 - First Figaro 33/1 - was a good fifth in Ballyandy’s bumper at the Festival. That’s a few years ago now but it shows he has back class and it’s interesting that he turns up here after just one run for Venetia Williams. Not my main bet in the race. I just think the price is too long.
 
I've given up on sleep tonight so I thought I'd trawl through and see if I could give a few outsiders that might run a race I've already mentioned Final Nudge for the Welsh at 20/1 and Coneygree for the King george elsewhere on the forum with reasoning in case you've missed that pair. The price has started to contract on Coney but 25/1 ish is still value and I think there is some of that about. I could also make the case that Double Shuffle and Tea For two are both going to represent some sort of value tomorrow they are already 50/1 and you may well see 66's the pair tomorrow which considering both horses past runs in this event seems more than fair however admittedly both of those probably a stone below winning this if the top lot run to their respective bests, thats not guaranteed by any stretch. Personally I've placed some combi's with Clan De Obeaux, Coneygree and The Shuffler with some of the more fancied runners so that's how I've played the opinion. Any way moving on I'll add these as I find them but the first one of interest.

1.50 Kempton Red Indian 33/1

Personally I don't know what the bookmakers are doing here allowing this to be 33/1 apart from maybe the fact its hailing from a very little known yard now. Who is Kelly Morgan ? I'm not at all sure tbh and although its a small sample group and not to be taken seriously we can at least say a 36% strike rate with all runners thus far...well it could be worse! At least it would seem that Kelly knows which direction to point them in. On Red Indians chase debut he's ballooned a couple of fences early but he certainly warmed to the task running out a very ready winner and leaving useful performer No Hasslehoff (had lines of form with The worlds end as a novice hurdler) to plod on through his vapour trail. I've seen worse chasing debut's, I'll be honest. He is very closely matched with Top of the game from last season's Lanzarote form which although a handicap, it worked out fairly strongly with William Henry and Top of the Game both framing off higher marks in the Coral cup and Diese de Bieffes also going on to do better things as well as another couple of winners coming from out of that race, if memory serves Bags Groove was left for dead there also. Red Indian could possibly have done with it being softer but stepping up to 3 mile he might appreciate not having an out and out slog. I personally feel 33/1 is an insult an is worth a few sheckels.

The bummer perhaps, is the race only being 7 runners and 2 places not ideal for the e/w punt. What I always like to do in such situations though is revert to forecasts especially if you can get on at prices with bet 365. If you're only going to get paid on a place part of an e/w bet for finishing 2nd then the forecast is the better option imo and even for the win basis it can be better done that way. So in a field this small you should have a fairly solid idea of what will be there or there abouts. Obviously Santini is a warm order and a lot will be siding with him adding this for the forecast might give you a nice little boost. Personally I'm in the Top of the game camp and the fc pays 86 one way and 160 ish the other but whatever you fancy to take the honours it might be worth forecasting it with this very overpriced individual or you may just want to play it old school and have a few sheckels on the nut for this to be a horse that launches the unknown Kelly Morgan into the spotlight.
 
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I think Red Indian is a brave bet, Danny. (Coat, please...)

I won't be joining you but I do think Coneygree each-way (22/1 taken) might be a Little Plum...
 
I've also taken Storm Home ew 28/1 in the 1.20. He went up to 138 over hurdles for winning his novice hurdle at Wincanton in March and could reasonably have been expected to go on to be a mid-140s chaser. He gets in here off 129 following three runs in novice chases and wears a tongue-tie for the first time. I had planned to put up Lisdoonvarna Lad in the same race but he has been very weak in the betting so I'm letting him go and will maybe get involved when the market speaks more favourably.
 
I'm in the Double Shuffle camp as well. I personally think this horse is turning into a course specialist and runs 10lb better here than any other track. 50/1 looks amazing value to me. The only disappointment is A P Heskin is not well enough to take the ride.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've also taken Storm Home ew 28/1 in the 1.20. He went up to 138 over hurdles for winning his novice hurdle at Wincanton in March and could reasonably have been expected to go on to be a mid-140s chaser. He gets in here off 129 following three runs in novice chases and wears a tongue-tie for the first time. I had planned to put up Lisdoonvarna Lad in the same race but he has been very weak in the betting so I'm letting him go and will maybe get involved when the market speaks more favourably.
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I'm with you on this one. Good luck.
 
That 1.20 is a real real tough race whatever the fall out from that I think it'll be worth following the form. Best of luck.
 
A hearty Boxing Day meal and a few glasses of amber nectar and I'm straining at the leash to wipe out those bookie basterts...

Yala Enki 20/1 carries a small bet in the Welsh National. Otago Trail was handicapped to win a big race but VW sent him elsewhere and relies instead on this old warrior. I'm inferring, perhaps misguidedly, that he has found unexpected improvement this season at home. Needless to say, if EE is over his Newbury exertions he wins as easily as Native River (and he's a bigger price).

Kem 3.05 Ballyheigue Bay 25/1 - I have a very decent figure for this one and he is a late improver. He could be pretty unexposed despite his advancing years.
 
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I'll try Scoir Mear 28/1 - Lep 3.00, again ffs, this pig once showed a neat turn of speed about 3 bets ago at Aintree in heavy, gone for a cpl up in distance today and this is another one that in good going should get the extra. Gotta b winning a handicap sooner r later, stable keep persisting with him and apparently puts a good shift in at home , so thry must see something

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Desert Orchid said:
A hearty Boxing Day meal and a few glasses of amber nectar and I'm straining at the leash to wipe out those bookie basterts...

Yala Enki 20/1 carries a small bet in the Welsh National. Otago Trail was handicapped to win a big race but VW sent him elsewhere and relies instead on this old warrior. I'm inferring, perhaps misguidedly, that he has found unexpected improvement this season at home. Needless to say, if EE is over his Newbury exertions he wins as easily as Native River (and he's a bigger price).

Kem 3.05 Ballyheigue Bay 25/1 - I have a very decent figure for this one and he is a late improver. He could be pretty unexposed despite his advancing years.
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I like those two Des.hope thats not a bad sign.
 
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