The Long Shot Thread

Frodon NRNB/BOG in the Gold Cup (33/1 ew).

I think the Caspian race was a bit special so I've gone very high with it. If I'm right - and maybe it's a big if - I think he'll win the Gold Cup if he stays. Apparently he might take in the Cotswolds Chase to see if he does stay. If he runs very well (let alone wins) he'll shorten and if he doesn't stay he probably won't run. I can live with either scenario.
 
Ascot 3.00 San Benedeto 20/1 ew (Hills) - there's no way this should be 20/1. A wee bit like Frodon, he remains for some reason under the radar but on his day he is very smart. I actually rate him better than a handicapper. He isn't my main bet in the race but he is a ridiculous price if he's trying.
 
I'd just logged in to say I thought you could of given San Benedeto another try at this trip so glad to see I'm not the only one. Ran a very solid figure here from a 2lb higher mark,2 runs back, at 2 mile (Is that just too many twos) and before that a really solid effort behind Gods Own. First try at a longer trip in the Peterborough they removed the pieces presumably to help him settle but his jumping went to pieces and it was just a really poor effort. Pieces back on today and Lorcan Williams deployed so I think he's certainly worth a rattle D.O, good luck.

Thought Kelpies Myth might outrun its price in the previous race and he's 20/1 currently and may go bigger so I suppose he's a qualifier I'd struggle to see him winning though as he usually fluffs a flight or two but worth a sheckel or two each way just in case. Personally I'd rather play him in combis with BallyMoy and Bettergetalong who I thought were the better of the market leaders. I'd certainly be happy to take on the favourite in the race as he's plenty short enough with enough questions over his form and suitability to conditions. I'd also had a good look at Seddon because he's unexposed and I actually like a couple of the ones who've beaten him lately but although completely unsure about where I'd have him atm ratings wise after watching his replays I'm going to err on the side of caution and say his current 137 is about right, I'm happy to take him on as well.


I like the logic with the NRNB on Frodon but can't agree with the Caspian Caviar form but I suppose time will tell. Talking of these sort of bets Des I'd had as much as I could get on NRNB with Champ for the Champion Hurdle. They've refunded the bet already presumably because he wasn't entered at the latest stage ? The whole point was he was never entered at any stage even when they laid the bet. My thoughts were he might do something a bit special in between now and then and get supplemented. Not sure where I'd stand but if he did get supplemented at some stage, I can see me having a very interesting conversation with Bet365 or at least Mother will have to...thats actually quite a scenario trying to argue an ante-post bet ruling via Mom who is the only woman I know who gets herself in a flap cooking cheese on toast :lol:


Best of luck lads just as a note of caution I've only had the briefest of glances as I woke up a bit early this morning. Thought Red Infantry should go close in the Peter Marsh at only 8's though not a qualifier for the thread obviously.
 
I suspect Nicholls knows San Benedeto is on a winning mark. I also suspect that he might want to see if he can get another couple of pounds off before the Festival in March though. The question is if he does nothing today is whether he’s being aimed at the Plate or The Grand Annual.
 
Danny said:
Thought Kelpies Myth might outrun its price in the previous race and he's 20/1 currently and may go bigger so I suppose he's a qualifier I'd struggle to see him winning though as he usually fluffs a flight or two but worth a sheckel or two each way just in case.
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Yes, I have KM top rated overall and have a saver on him although I went with Hills' slightly shorter odds for 5-places.
 
Maruco said:
I suspect Nicholls knows San Benedeto is on a winning mark. I also suspect that he might want to see if he can get another couple of pounds off before the Festival in March though. The question is if he does nothing today is whether he’s being aimed at the Plate or The Grand Annual.
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I'm not sure Cheltenham is his track otherwise why has he only run twice there (unseated mid-race once and well behind in the other).

My gut says he's going for the big 2.5m race at Newbury in which Nicholls has such a good record, which is one of the reasons I only have a saver on him but 20/1 today is just too big.
 
I’m not sure about that Maurice. Both times he ran at Cheltenham his defeats were due to mistakes rather than the track. Also he seems to have performed well enough at stiff tracks elsewhere.

You could well be right, but I’ve been watching Nicholls closely this season and I think he’s lining himself up for a proper assault on the Festival. San Benedeto is one of a number of horses I’ve been watching.
 
Maruco said:
... but I’ve been watching Nicholls closely this season and I think he’s lining himself up for a proper assault on the Festival. San Benedeto is one of a number of horses I’ve been watching.
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I probably haven't been watching quite as closely as you, Maruco, but I've had the same gut feeling too. Same with a few of Tizzard's.

But clearly we are of the same opinion that SB has the winning of a race of this nature (or better).
 
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Maruco said:
I suspect Nicholls knows San Benedeto is on a winning mark. I also suspect that he might want to see if he can get another couple of pounds off before the Festival in March though. The question is if he does nothing today is whether he’s being aimed at the Plate or The Grand Annual.
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I was also thinking grand annual.
 
Yeah I wrote Kellie's Myth out for my each way Trixie last night. Delighted to see others fancy it each way too.
 
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I've had to stick with Daklondike over at Haydock. Loved seeing his victory last time, and I can't abandon him just yet.
 
Yeah a disappointing day, id agree KM just didn't get the trip. I was really dissapointed with Red infantry i dont think the visor is agreeing with him a return to pieces for him Is needed I think. As for San Benedeto god knows what went wrong with that project really poor run but I don't really buy the non trier being saved for Cheltenham stuff.
 
Never put in the race yesterday Danny and may get another 2 or 3lbs respite from the handicapper now. Look at how he’s been ridden when he’s won or run well.

Cyrname was definitely a job for Nicholls yesterday, so why run San Benedeto as well if Cyrname was a good thing?
 
I'm wondering what it is about Ascot that it regularly throws up impressive-looking wide-margin handicap winners?

We had Cyrname yesterday and a couple of years back Tenor Nivernais destroyed a high class field seemingly without coming off the bit plus a few others whose names escape me for now.

I know it happens on other tracks (there was one at Newbury last season or the end of the previous season) but it seems to happen more often at Ascot. You never seem to see it at Sandown, for example.
 
In the Thyestes this afternoon I've taken 33/1 Valseur Lido. He's probably in terminal decline but he's a G1 winner who was raised to 169 for that win (probably over-rated him in the first place) but now races off 146. Off 158 in the National four runs ago, he was still well there and going well turning for home only to run out of gas. He's maybe being trained for another go at Aintree but if they accept he didn't stay this looks a viable alternative.

The usual wealth warnings apply.
 
I really want to put Don Poli in here, but I have absolutely no viable argument he'll run well.

Hoping they send him the nash route. The run out he had in the Bechers is as bad as one would think.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the Thyestes this afternoon I've taken 33/1 Valseur Lido. He's probably in terminal decline but he's a G1 winner who was raised to 169 for that win (probably over-rated him in the first place) but now races off 146. Off 158 in the National four runs ago, he was still well there and going well turning for home only to run out of gas. He's maybe being trained for another go at Aintree but if they accept he didn't stay this looks a viable alternative.

The usual wealth warnings apply.
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Just prepping for something after all. Bowled along nicely up top and not asked a question in the final third. Probably won't do his National mark any harm, assuming that's still on the cards for him. Mall Dini another who looked to have something else down the pipeline in mind.
 
First up for tomorrow.

Chl 12.40 - Pagero ew 33/1 - This is a bit left-field, even for me :lol:. JP has two in the race with Geraghty on Fine Brunello who could be competitive if he's improved from his first run since joining Joseph O'Brien just before Christmas. JP's other runner is Pagero who ended up in Listed company on the Flat in France and was only bought by JP last week and sent to Jonjo and makes his hurdling debut here. The sire is Nathaniel so I imagine a strongly-run race might suit him well and I just wonder if Geraghty on the other is a decoy.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Frodon NRNB/BOG in the Gold Cup (33/1 ew).

I think the Caspian race was a bit special so I've gone very high with it. If I'm right - and maybe it's a big if - I think he'll win the Gold Cup if he stays. Apparently he might take in the Cotswolds Chase to see if he does stay. If he runs very well (let alone wins) he'll shorten and if he doesn't stay he probably won't run. I can live with either scenario.
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I've had to back up this bet with an each-way on Terrefort (50/1 NRNB) in the race. I think they really fancied this one for the Hennessy off 158 so they must rate it at least 170 which, to me, puts him in the same ball-park as Native River. If he goes and beats Frodon in this trial on Saturday he'll shorten up a good bit and if he ends up not running I'll get my money back. I'm happy to play.
 
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