The Long Shot Thread

Next up for tomorrow:

Don 3.15 - Monbeg River ew 25/1 - The price suggests his chance isn't obvious but he's up near the top of my ratings with a few at single-figure prices. He could be still improving, is a good jumper and his record appears to suggest he goes well fresh.
 
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Apologies I haven't got time to do much of a write up but in the Cleeve hurdle tomorrow I've taken a pop at the forecast or rather the reverse forecast with Bet365 on Wholestone and Black Op it pays 40ish one way and 45's the other atm so I make that a 20/1 ish return on your dough hence a qualifier for the thread.

Black Op certainly went ok in the Ballymore last year looked last time out over fences as if he'll relish both the step up to 3 mile's and the return to smaller obstacles and you'd think he's got to go close here and he's my idea of the winner.

Although he won't be too popular with our illustrious long shot leader D.O, Wholestone rarely runs a bad race around here he just got out manned in this last year by Agrapart in really heavy ground was a lot better than his effort looked in the World Hurdle in March he could probably do with the light rain forecast being a little less on the light side but hopefully it'll be just soft enough without being as extreme as it was last year. I'm a big fan of Midnight shadow but he was very keen last time and I didn't think he was going to see out the 2 and a half the way he was travelling but he did looks a real decent type but if he doesn't settle better here though I don't think he''l see out the 3 mile. I'm unconvinced about Paisley Park as of yet and think this is another step up and he's plenty short enough all things considered. Aux Pitts soins won well last time but it was only a handicap off 141 talented on his day I suppose but another stepping up against better horses he's plenty short enough for a horse who's had his problems and has struggled to put two performances together back to back. Skelton will have done wonders if he can get him to win this. Sam Spinner looked gone last time. The danger to spoiling the day is probably the old boy UKWIMH buts lets just hope he's a gallant 3rd eh ?

Good luck lads.
 
Desert Orchid said:
First up for tomorrow.

Chl 12.40 - Pagero ew 33/1 - This is a bit left-field, even for me :lol:. JP has two in the race with Geraghty on Fine Brunello who could be competitive if he's improved from his first run since joining Joseph O'Brien just before Christmas. JP's other runner is Pagero who ended up in Listed company on the Flat in France and was only bought by JP last week and sent to Jonjo and makes his hurdling debut here. The sire is Nathaniel so I imagine a strongly-run race might suit him well and I just wonder if Geraghty on the other is a decoy.
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Pagero is very weak this morning so maybe they're just giving him a jog round at the back. I've written the bet off.

Watch for his name appearing in the Non-Triers' thread :lol:
 
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4.10 Cheltenham - Demopolis 20/1 - This was actually to be my main bet in the race last night but he became very weak in the betting and I decided to leave it until this morning. I've relegated him to small saver status but I think I mentioned him on the non-triers' thread after his last run so this is as much about sickness insurance as anything else. He was dropped 6lbs for that race so will need to start going back up to have any chance of getting into any of the festival handicaps (he isn't in the Betfair).
 
Pagero is now out to 80/1. Don't know whether it's a :lol: or a :( but it has shortened a little on the exchange to 90-odd. Hope springs and all that.

(Hope Springs - now there's a name for a fictional wummin detective.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
4.10 Cheltenham - Demopolis 20/1 - This was actually to be my main bet in the race last night but he became very weak in the betting and I decided to leave it until this morning. I've relegated him to small saver status but I think I mentioned him on the non-triers' thread after his last run so this is as much about sickness insurance as anything else. He was dropped 6lbs for that race so will need to start going back up to have any chance of getting into any of the festival handicaps (he isn't in the Betfair).
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I've just remembered John Constable is in this race. He's at the stage where he makes the word 'canine' complimentary but I've taken some sickness insurance at 50/1. Win only as he'll either win in a canter or blow out completely.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've just remembered John Constable is in this race. He's at the stage where he makes the word 'canine' complimentary but I've taken some sickness insurance at 50/1. Win only as he'll either win in a canter or blow out completely.
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Long time lurker but first time poster here. Hello all :thumbsup:

John Constable is one I’m following as I can’t simply have it that it’s as poor as it’s recent running implies. I hope it doesn’t win today but surely must win some race at Chepstow or Ffos Las when backed to do so. This horse was fancied to win the Cesarewitch a few years ago!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Pagero is now out to 80/1. Don't know whether it's a :lol: or a :( but it has shortened a little on the exchange to 90-odd.
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I took another nibble at 80/1 just in case and it halved from 66s to 33s in the run-up to the off.

The RTV people were quite complimentary about the promise it showed and I'd agree with that. It was really just a training gallop for it but despite stookieing nearly every hurdle it moved up threateningly at one point in the back straight before the jockey remembered his instructions.
 
That Cleeve was the first proper stayers hurdle race I've seen for a while proper race, proper test and although I wasn't convinced by Paisley park beforehand I am now. Cracking performance and I'm sure that's a star of the future. Wow !

Bet down but no complaints.
 
I was all over Midnight Shadow. Paisley Park is a proper horse though. Still doesn't beat Supasundae or Penhill for me though.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Don 3.15 - Monbeg River ew 25/1 - The price suggests his chance isn't obvious but he's up near the top of my ratings with a few at single-figure prices. He could be still improving, is a good jumper and his record appears to suggest he goes well fresh.
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Did everything I could have asked for bar win.
 
D.O that's an excellent effort and I think time will tell that you've bumped into a very, very good one. I usually try and take a negative view of impressive winners whenever possible and try not to over react to performances before I've had chance too dig into them a bit but that's twice this season I've just thought wow ! ( First time was Champ. So I'm either going soft in my old age or I've seen two future champions.
 
nickf88 said:
Long time lurker but first time poster here. Hello all :thumbsup:

John Constable is one I’m following as I can’t simply have it that it’s as poor as it’s recent running implies. I hope it doesn’t win today but surely must win some race at Chepstow or Ffos Las when backed to do so. This horse was fancied to win the Cesarewitch a few years ago!
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Welcome on board Nick glad you've come out from the shadows too add some contribution. I thought JC was being laid out for something when I saw him running down the track earlier in the season but looking at how his mark has plummeted pretty soon he won't even be able to get in a decent race. I'm just of the opinion the horse is shot...either that or they are aiming at something like the imperial and county double I'm 99.9% certain it's the former though.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've had to back up this bet with an each-way on Terrefort (50/1 NRNB) in the race. I think they really fancied this one for the Hennessy off 158 so they must rate it at least 170 which, to me, puts him in the same ball-park as Native River. If he goes and beats Frodon in this trial on Saturday he'll shorten up a good bit and if he ends up not running I'll get my money back. I'm happy to play.
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Most of the way round I was thinking this one was only out for a spin around and wasn’t seriously trying Given far too much to do IMO but perhaps he just needed the run after his injury (although NJH has said they never quite found out for sure what the problem was)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Desert Orchid said:
Frodon NRNB/BOG in the Gold Cup (33/1 ew).

I think the Caspian race was a bit special so I've gone very high with it. If I'm right - and maybe it's a big if - I think he'll win the Gold Cup if he stays. Apparently he might take in the Cotswolds Chase to see if he does stay. If he runs very well (let alone wins) he'll shorten and if he doesn't stay he probably won't run. I can live with either scenario.
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I have to say I really expected Frodon to win a lot more easily and fully expected Nicholls to abandon any hopes of the Gold Cup. However, I see it's now the plan and Frodon has halved in price in many places. I'll hold on to the bet for now rather than lay it off.

Watching the race over again, especially the latter stages, I woner if Frodon was idling after the last and started responding to the challenge of Elegant Escape just approaching the line.

I imagine Bryony Frost must have thought the distance wasn't an issue.
 
I've just checked what Frost and Nicholls said after the race. Reading between the lines, it sounds like they eased off him after his last win and were keeping a bit back with him with the festival in mind. That wold explain why he did't win as easily as I'd hoped.

It was also interesting that Nicholls said there isn't much between him and Clan Des Obeaux.

The dream is still on...
 
Danny said:
D.O that's an excellent effort and I think time will tell that you've bumped into a very, very good one. I usually try and take a negative view of impressive winners whenever possible and try not to over react to performances before I've had chance too dig into them a bit but that's twice this season I've just thought wow ! ( First time was Champ. So I'm either going soft in my old age or I've seen two future champions.
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Actually I've had a complete and utter brain fart there I thought that was the 2nd in the Cleeve and of course it was in the big chase at Donny which I hadn't even watched yet today just in case anyone was confused as to why I thought Go Conquer was the next big thing :lol: It has been one of those days :rolleyes:
 
I'm a fan of Go Conquer but thought the handicapper had him for now. I really never saw that performance coming. A lot of the other form in behind makes a lot of sense so NT-D has *ahem* found some amount of improvement from *ahem* 'somewhere'...
 
Leopardstown 2:00 Mitchouka 40/1 Each Way (general price)

It's not often you see a Michael O Leary owned horse at this big a price, but it's each way value nevertheless.
Mitchouka didn't do much wrong over hurdles last season. He finished second behind the 147 rated Saglawy at Fairyhouse, with the third that day (Saldier) rated 152 now. On that form 137 is not a bad mark, for only his second start in handicap hurdle company, but you obviously have to forget his recent chase form.
 
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I know some of you guys were following Ivanovich Gorbatov last term thinking he was being laid out for the festival, he probably was and the ground went against him I'd have thought. He put in a couple of decent efforts in the summer which suggests he still retains some ability. They've messed about with the tack the last couple of times he's run leaving off the tt last time and the blinkers before that. Both back on today and that was the combination he wore for his better efforts in the summer. I don't really feel like he's being laid out for anything including this today, more it feels like desperate efforts on their parts to revitalise him a bit. If he were to drop much lower than his current 134 he wouldn't be getting in at the Festival ...possibly might sneak in at the bottom of the boys race ? I can't quite recall off the top of my head what sort of mark gets you in each year but even that would be tight I'd have thought. 50/1 today available to 6 places with Paddy Power. Any thoughts fellas as to whether there is still anything in the tank or is the horse is just plainly finished ?

Also thought the Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown looks a really hot affair today and plenty of horses i like in there but way too competitive to be getting involved with. Could be a race to follow the form out of as it looks like it could be a really strong race with plenty of good future chasers and a couple of Coral Cup candidates. Plenty in with solid chances and plenty far less risky than Full Glass but I do wonder if now those pesky British fences are out of the way whether he might be a bit of value at around 25/1 generally.
 
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This will probably fuel the fire of those who think I'm bonkers with some of my selections ("Some?!" I hear you shriek...) and this one is pretty left-field again.

Sandown 2.25 - Mulcahys Hill 20/1 - I do think Vinndication will win but I'm not the type to get involved with 6/4 shots. I couldn't back Lostintranslation or Defi Du Seuil to beat the favourite either. But Mulcahys Hill at the price strikes me as potentially over-priced. I'm working on my long-held notion that hurdlers tend to improve 10lbs when going over fences - in time - and with two runs under his belt this may the time for that improvement to kick in. MH went up to 147 for being touched off by a 147-rated Poetic Rhythm in the Challow last season with Kilbricken Storm (147) over 20 lengths back in third. The winner has done nothing since and neither has MH to be honest but KS is now rated 152 over fences. Like I say, left-field and all that but it's my idea of a bet for the sake of an interest in an otherwise uninspiring event.
 
Danny said:
I know some of you guys were following Ivanovich Gorbatov last term thinking he was being laid out for the festival, he probably was and the ground went against him I'd have thought. He put in a couple of decent efforts in the summer which suggests he still retains some ability. They've messed about with the tack the last couple of times he's run leaving off the tt last time and the blinkers before that. Both back on today and that was the combination he wore for his better efforts in the summer. I don't really feel like he's being laid out for anything including this today, more it feels like desperate efforts on their parts to revitalise him a bit. If he were to drop much lower than his current 134 he wouldn't be getting in at the Festival ...possibly might sneak in at the bottom of the boys race ? I can't quite recall off the top of my head what sort of mark gets you in each year but even that would be tight I'd have thought. 50/1 today available to 6 places with Paddy Power. Any thoughts fellas as to whether there is still anything in the tank or is the horse is just plainly finished ?

Also thought the Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown looks a really hot affair today and plenty of horses i like in there but way too competitive to be getting involved with. Could be a race to follow the form out of as it looks like it could be a really strong race with plenty of good future chasers and a couple of Coral Cup candidates. Plenty in with solid chances and plenty far less risky than Full Glass but I do wonder if now those pesky British fences are out of the way whether he might be a bit of value at around 25/1 generally.
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I put Ivanovich Gorbatov up earlier in the season but he disappointed.
I should stick him in a separate each way lucky 15 to the one with Mitchouka in, so that I'll have two running for me in the race.
 
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Followed you in Ivan G, Danny, ew at 40/1. Might need to start going back up the ratings for the County although he'll probably be 6lbs higher here than his Irish mark.
 
I'm in the ivanovich gorbatov camp as well.if not today then the county.
13lb lower today thanlast years race.

Jezski 40/1 is tempting.beaten 10L by wonder leish and is 21lb better off today with 7lb claimer.
 
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