The Long Shot Thread

Great run for a 40/1 shot and at one point I thought he was going to pull it off. Hopefully he's on the way back. Jezki ran a blinder too.
 
Jesus wept Outsider hows your luck ? 2 40/1's 2nd and 3rd both nailed in the dying strides unlucky mate.
 
Last edited:
Punchestown 4:20 Dinnie's Vinnie (Each Way)

I know the favourite Fitzhenry has a big pull at the weights with him, but Dinnie's Vinnie beat him nine lengths so surely shouldn't be 33/1.
With a win strike rate of around 30 percent (7/25), even at 11 years of age, I still reckon he can out-run his odds.

I'd be over the moon if he placed at that price.
 
Last edited:
swedish chef said:
Fairyhouse 3.35 Dubai Devils 40/1 - looks to be on a handy mark on his form with good in the going.
Click to expand...

Only just watched the race and seen the result.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!

Boom! You have won £148.00
Single Each Way

W
13th Feb FAIRYHOUSE 15:35 2M 7 1/2F HCAP CHASE 2m 7f 110yds - Each Way
9. Dubai Devils
60/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 2 Places

Stake:
£4.00
Returns:
£148.00

Bet ID: O/6561083/0006088

Boom! You have won £100.00
Single Each Way

W
13th Feb FAIRYHOUSE 15:35 2M 7 1/2F HCAP CHASE 2m 7f 110yds - Each Way
9. Dubai Devils
40/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places

Stake:
£4.00
Returns:
£100.00

13-Feb-19
15:47:53
15:35 Fairyhouse
Dubai Devils - 4 TBP (4 TBP)
Betfair Bet ID 1:153656085015 | Placed: 13-Feb-19 11:11:20
Back
5.80
3.00
--
14.40
Won
13-Feb-19
15:45:19
15:35 Fairyhouse
Dubai Devils - To Be Placed (3 TBP)
Betfair Bet ID 1:153655450113 | Placed: 13-Feb-19 11:01:24
Back
9.14
2.50
--
20.35
Won
13-Feb-19
15:43:09
15:35 Fairyhouse
Dubai Devils - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:153655484385 | Placed: 13-Feb-19 11:02:00
Back
38.99
2.50
--
94.98
Won
13-Feb-19
15:43:09
15:35 Fairyhouse
Dubai Devils - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:153656115476 | Placed: 13-Feb-19 11:11:48
Back
40.00
3.00
--
117.00
Won
 
Sandown 1.20 Grey Gold 20/1 - small e/way - stake saver 4 places - This old boy has been given a chance by the handicapper. Won off 146 - 16 months ago and with claimer today is running off 120. Has always run to a decent level when fresh after a break. Loves the going and has solid c/d form, however, 14 years old he's not getting any better but I feel he is capable off this mark.
 
Yeah, I think he's just getting on now but he'd be top rated by miles on his better form so I've followed you in, Chef. Fingers crossed he still got some of that old ability.
 
I've had a few sheckels on two larger priced ones for tommorw both really chancey types.

In the Betfair I'm on Nordic Combined at 25's I think I've written the resoning somehwere else on the forum.

A little piece I've written elsewhere for Bishops Road chances at 33's.

The other one has even surpirsed me but I couldn't resist a little pop at Bishops Road at 33's in the GN trial really decent run last time he was here against Red infantry and is stacks better off at the weights with that one but his overall record at Haydock isn't bad at all when you look at the respective marks he's ran off and tasks he's faced here. Mitch isn't my favourite jockey in truth far from it but his claim does mean this horse races with a dead weight of 10-2 which surpisingly for a horse of 31 races under rules has never felt a burden that light in fact his lightest ever racing weight was 10-4 back in his novice hurdle days. For a staying chaser the effect of weight is multiplied and if he's on a going day back at a track that suits he has to be dangerous off of this mark doesn't he ?
 
I totally agree with you Danny about Bishops Road and meant to put it on here.loves haydock and carried 7lb less when he won this race before.
 
I'm glad you do mate I thought I was losing the plot and was looking at it thinking who the bloody hell priced that up ! Its one of those where the price was so big it was putting me off. Not that I'm not accustomed to backing huge priced horses but usually I know why they are priced so big. He's pulled up at Sandown which is just one of those Marmite courses. Fell the time before that. Before that he's run Red infantry close over course and distance and if you include the Jockey's claim he's 13lb better off with that one for 2 lengths. I actually had been waiting for Red infantry to come out again when he beat Bishops Road I thought he looked a nice type who would get better. I'm unsure why but they changed the headgear from pieces to a visor after that win and I never thought he jumped as well. despite jumping badly on those next 2 runs he ran big races from higher marks if he'd jumped better he may have won both of them. I was waiting to see if they'd revert to pieces but they've gone for first time blinkers so I thought he held a solid enough chance himself but when you consider the weight swing and Bishops Road being 3 times the price...can't say as I like it but I have to play it. The only worrying thing for me was he's not wearing his usual tongue tie which I thought was a bit weird.
 
Last edited:
Huntingdon 3.05 Foxy's Spirit 66/1 - worth risking a minimum e/way. Has shown improved form in her last two races and could be a filly coming into form. On the form of her last race she could be on a very fair mark? Finishing upside Bachelor l/t/o who fell jumping the last on his penultimate outing upsides Sir Erec & Tiger Tap Tap . I do not think Bachelor ran his race l/t/o but that aside it was a fair performance from Foxy's Spirit who finished in front of Dr Richard Kimble and form lines through him gives the performance credibility.
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
Chl 12.40 - Pagero ew 33/1 - This is a bit left-field, even for me :lol:. JP has two in the race with Geraghty on Fine Brunello who could be competitive if he's improved from his first run since joining Joseph O'Brien just before Christmas. JP's other runner is Pagero who ended up in Listed company on the Flat in France and was only bought by JP last week and sent to Jonjo and makes his hurdling debut here. The sire is Nathaniel so I imagine a strongly-run race might suit him well and I just wonder if Geraghty on the other is a decoy.
Click to expand...

Eyecatching when ridiculously weak in the market last month in that race won by the Fakir, he's out again today in the Adonis, this time with Geraghty up. Sickness insurance on each-way at 40/1 (4 places) today.
 
Back
Top