The Long Shot Thread

3.35 Kempton
Romain de Senam has drifted to a price that qualifies him for this thread. Generally disappointing over the last couple of years but he did get back to winning ways last time out suggesting that a step up in trip was what he needed
20/1 taken (ew 4 places with Power)


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viking said:
3.35 Kempton
Romain de Senam has drifted to a price that qualifies him for this thread. Generally disappointing over the last couple of years but he did get back to winning ways last time out suggesting that a step up in trip was what he needed
20/1 taken (ew 4 places with Power)


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I dont know what to think today.ive backed it but in a way I'd like it to just run well as I've backed it at 33s for the browns advisory at Cheltenham.doesnt have a good record at Cheltenham though.
 
I've backed San Benedeto for the big race at Newbury on Saturday, 25/1 ew.

I have genuine G1 ratings for this on its best form and have put it up on the thread before only to end up putting it in the non-triers' thread :lol:

I have no idea if it will run or if this is the season's big target for it but I do know Nicholls targets the race and this is one of just three entries.

To be honest, though, I didn't have it at the forefront of my mind until I saw Paul Kealy headlining it so thought I'd better get on fast before it shortens up.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've backed San Benedeto for the big race at Newbury on Saturday, 25/1 ew.

I have genuine G1 ratings for this on its best form and have put it up on the thread before only to end up putting it in the non-triers' thread [emoji38]

I have no idea if it will run or if this is the season's big target for it but I do know Nicholls targets the race and this is one of just three entries.

To be honest, though, I didn't have it at the forefront of my mind until I saw Paul Kealy headlining it so thought I'd better get on fast before it shortens up.
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San Benedetto also entered in 888 chase at Doncaster (past C&D Winner) 2:25pm on same day. He's as short as 5/1 for that with only 9 runners and it's probably a more suitable distance for this horse - in terms of when he's shown his previous best form.
 
Yes, DH. I saw that. PK also tips it for that race and is basically saying he fancies it for whichever it runs in. It is probably going to be typical of my luck that it goes to Donny and wins and I'm not on it. at 5/1 or so for the latter race I can wait until Saturday for a bet. I just think he cold halve in price ahead of Newbury as it does look to me a more suitable race than for the other two Nicholls entries.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I just think [San Benedeto] could halve in price ahead of Newbury as it does look to me a more suitable race than for the other two Nicholls entries.
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Happy enough to see:

a) He's opted for this rather than Doncaster;
b) He's now best-price 14/1, shortest 11/1

I'm not convinced Scholfield screams 'trier' though. I might lay it off tomorrow if it goes to a single figure price.
 
Good luck D.O I'm sure I had a decent bet on this one when he was very disappointing lto, I toyed with the idea of him or Mercian Prince and might yet have a few quid on them but I'm half tempted to play the exotics in this race as there are a few I fancy. The only one I've backed up to yet though is Shanahan's turn at 33/1. Although he ran a stinker over 2 miles recently his run in the Sefton was a lot better than it looked really going well in that until slipping on landing. Before that he'd run to within 7 lengths of Charbel and Baron Alco who both won strong contests nto. That was off a mark of 137 and he's dropped to 130 here + Tizzard deploys a 7lb claimer so realistically a stone in dead weight better off than he was against that decent pair. You could make a case of course that he is being laid out once more for another crack at the Topham which he ran a good second in last year however you'd have to think that Tizzard is more than aware that if his horse runs a stinker here and gets dropped anymore in the handicap there is always a danger that he wouldn't even make the cut for the Topham in April.


He's not the most reliable sort but a couple of his best runs have come at Aintree which is very similar to Newbury in configuration so hoping he might be on a going day I thought 33's with 5 places available worth a shot.

Apologies if I haven't been posting much I've been busy with the new Job and also a few personal problems to deal with atm but hopefully I'll be doing a bit more horse racing stuff once things have settled down.


Good luck.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'm not convinced Scholfield screams 'trier' though. I might lay it off tomorrow if it goes to a single figure price.
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Also meant to say according to Nicholls blog Cobbers was due to ride him until they decided Getaway Trump was going to Kelso. Imo he might have a wasted trip.
 
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Danny said:
Good luck D.O I'm sure I had a decent bet on this one when he was very disappointing lto, I toyed with the idea of him or Mercian Prince and might yet have a few quid on them but I'm half tempted to play the exotics in this race as there are a few I fancy. The only one I've backed up to yet though is Shanahan's turn at 33/1. Although he ran a stinker over 2 miles recently his run in the Sefton was a lot better than it looked really going well in that until slipping on landing. Before that he'd run to within 7 lengths of Charbel and Baron Alco who both won strong contests nto. That was off a mark of 137 and he's dropped to 130 here + Tizzard deploys a 7lb claimer so realistically a stone in dead weight better off than he was against that decent pair. You could make a case of course that he is being laid out once more for another crack at the Topham which he ran a good second in last year however you'd have to think that Tizzard is more than aware that if his horse runs a stinker here and gets dropped anymore in the handicap there is always a danger that he wouldn't even make the cut for the Topham in April.


He's not the most reliable sort but a couple of his best runs have come at Aintree which is very similar to Newbury in configuration so hoping he might be on a going day I thought 33's with 5 places available worth a shot.

Apologies if I haven't been posting much I've been busy with the new Job and also a few personal problems to deal with atm but hopefully I'll be doing a bit more horse racing stuff once things have settled down.


Good luck.
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Cheers, Danny.

I reckon this might be Shanahan's Turn's next step in his prep for the Topham myself. I wouldn't be surprised if he took in a festival race en route.
 
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The exchange negativity suggests I'm farting against thunder in backing Master Dee (22/1, 27 exchange) to back up San Benedeto.

Much was made last year of Geraghty's 100% record for the trainer so when I saw him booked for this I thought I'd be doing well to get 10/1 but he looks very weak in the market but still worth some sickness insurance.
 
I've taken a pop at Azzuri in the same race at 40/1 ew 5 places.

There are bits and bobs of his Irish form that suggest he shouldn't be that kind of price and how often does a Dan/Harry Skelton runner go off at that kind of price in a decent handicap?

Just a small bet, though, for a wee bit of value.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've backed San Benedeto for the big race at Newbury on Saturday, 25/1 ew.

I have genuine G1 ratings for this on its best form and have put it up on the thread before only to end up putting it in the non-triers' thread :lol:

I have no idea if it will run or if this is the season's big target for it but I do know Nicholls targets the race and this is one of just three entries.

To be honest, though, I didn't have it at the forefront of my mind until I saw Paul Kealy headlining it so thought I'd better get on fast before it shortens up.
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Excellent shout hope you didn’t lay off


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Well done Maurice. That’s a really good shout. The only thing that stopped me backing him was no preview or ratings! :lol:
 
Maruco said:
Well done Maurice. That’s a really good shout. The only thing that stopped me backing him was no preview or ratings! :lol:
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That's a shame, Maruco. He was 10lbs clear on my figures :whistle:

:lol:


(O ye of little faith...)
 
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