The Long Shot Thread

Fontwell 3.10 Boru's Brook 33/1 - worth risking a fun bet on this horses form over the obstacles when there is soft or heavy in the going. Although 11yo he is lightly raced and has been running on the all weather for the past year. Before that he had 4 hurdle races winning two on heavy by 16L & 7L and pu In the other two on good. One of them against Might Bite in a class 2 earning these comments, "Tracked leader, pressed leader from 3 out, travelling well enough upsides when mistake and stumbled badly 2 out, soon pulled up and dismounted." In two chase races he won one on soft by 15L and was PU In a grade 2 at Haydock won by Bristol De Mai. He certainly had some good form on soft or heavy going and worth risking a fun bet at the price to see if a return to hurdles on soft/heavy can rekindle the enthusiasm.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've backed San Benedeto for the big race at Newbury on Saturday, 25/1 ew.

I have genuine G1 ratings for this on its best form and have put it up on the thread before only to end up putting it in the non-triers' thread :lol:

I have no idea if it will run or if this is the season's big target for it but I do know Nicholls targets the race and this is one of just three entries.

To be honest, though, I didn't have it at the forefront of my mind until I saw Paul Kealy headlining it so thought I'd better get on fast before it shortens up.
Click to expand...

Don't know how I missed this - I was at a university open day on Saturday but you posted this on Wednesday :mad: Well done D.O. well deserved. :adore:
 
Copied and pasted from the novices' thread:

I've taken a little fun-money on Benny's Bridge for the Supreme (66/1 ew nrnb/bog).

He's in the Imperial Cup on Saturday and seemingly being backed. I haven't looked at that race yet and won't manage to do so until some time of Friday afternoon but I imagine I'll end up betting him that too and expect him not to run again on Tuesday anyway. But I don't really expect him to make the cut for the County and I'm not sure what else he'll get into.

I think this is one seriously under-rated horse.

On the face of it, off 126 he should be half a furlong behind the likes of Al Dancer or Fakir in the Supreme.

However, on trials day when he won the handicap he ran final three flights at least 15 lengths faster than Fakir without seemngly being asked too serious a question. I reckon he probably wouldn't have run any faster after the last even if he'd been asked to but he made his ground from last at the top of the hill on the bit until joining the leaders at the last.

I wouldn't necessarily take that time comparison at face value but neither would I dismiss it out of hand.

His price reflects his current rating but I think he is an awful lot better than that.

There's no downside to the bet so I'm happy to play.
 
A couple of fun bets in the Imperial Cup.

First up: Chti Balko (33/1, ew 4 pl) sets a good standard for the race on his best form and looks seriously overpriced but is vulnerable to improvers, sleepers and plots. He’s been dropped 7lbs for two moderate runs but his overall profile is of one still on the up. He has to carry a small bet at long odds. Shouldn't mind the ground.

And: Sam-TD has been allowed off Storm Rising to partner long-term absentee Pyromaniac (40/1 ew, 4 pl) for its new trainer Alastair Ralph who is a bit of an unknown to me but who appears to have a pretty decent overall strike rate which goes up when Sam rides to 40%. It’s a small sample of just five runners but on top of the two wins they’ve been second and fourth once each. The RP says the horse was sold back in August yet it has only just joined this yard from Tony Martin. I just wonder if he’s been taken off the radar back in Ireland for an unorthodox preparation in the meantime. I wouldn’t put anything past Martin. He’s another at huge odds worth a small bet just in case.
 
Mares' Hurdle Tuesday - Good Thyne Tara 33/1 ew (Lad, 'boostable') - Second top on ORs, just 1lb behind BDD, and jt-second on RPRs, 5lbs off BDD.

Looks skelping ew value. I'll want to check the market w/o the fav on Tuesday morning too.
 
Stratford 2.10 Phoenician Star 22/1 small e/w - there is a line of form between Honourable and Praeceps that suggest the selection could give the odds on fav a race if not going for a hcp mark.
 
swedish chef said:
Stratford 2.10 Phoenician Star 22/1 small e/w - there is a line of form between Honourable and Praeceps that suggest the selection could give the odds on fav a race if not going for a hcp mark.
Click to expand...

I saw this at 2:13 and popped in to Betfair to back it - got 21 in running then watched it get beat.

Then realised that I'd backed the wrong ******* horse - stuck my £2 on Honourable by mistake!! :ninja:
 
Plumpton 3.55 Bolands Mill 22/1 small e/way - although well btn he has mixed it with some decent types and may run well off this mark in this grade now handicapping?
 
I was awlways a fan of Brandon Castle and always thought with his style of running he'd be a very good novice hurdler. He's bound to lead them a merry gallop and get a lot of them in trouble.......he was 50/1 and 1/5th the odds with William Hill 7 places
 
Tanlic said:
I was awlways a fan of Brandon Castle and always thought with his style of running he'd be a very good novice hurdler. He's bound to lead them a merry gallop and get a lot of them in trouble.......he was 50/1 and 1/5th the odds with William Hill 7 places
Click to expand...

Good bet imo with 7 places.i missed the 66s with bet365 and ended up with 33s.Big ask but should get a good run.
 
I look like having a stack of seriously-long longshots tomorrow. I'll be happy if one makes the frame!

For example, in the Mares' race Gordon Elliott has just one runner (from four entries one of which was AJ) with Davy Russell up.

How wrong would it be to assume this is therefore the second-best mare in the yard?

I didn't do the form for the race as it isn't my type but could there be a scenario in which we're looking at the result and wondering why such a runner was allowed to be 100/1?

Lackaneen Leader is the mare in question.
 
Last edited:
I think I've spotted a sneaky one in the Close Bros. tomorrow 4:50 - Ben Dundee 28/1 (5 places W Hill) or 25/1 (6 places Skybet).
At the Betfair preview night one of the only things I took out of it was that Gordon Elliot named Cubomania in this race as his fancy.
I made a note straight away to look at his other runners in the race. Ben Dundee has earlier novice chase form only 1 Length behind Delta Work.
After that race he won a 20F chase at Punch comfortably and had a PU and a fall after that before being eased off after a mistake LTO - and I believe with a view to securing this H'Cap mark. The more I look at this the more I'm convincing myself.
 
I like your thinking DH but its Jps third string and well named Shady Operator I like

his mark was protected and it could be Mark Walshs gift for a solid years steering
 
Mares-​Momella

Pretty confident she is better than this seasons form figures of FP!

Each Way @ 20-1 [Bet 365] 1/4
 
It might pay to wait. You'd think there would be money for either or both if they think they've got them in under the radar. I'm going to watch the markets for both and jump if the money comes.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I look like having a stack of seriously-long longshots tomorrow. I'll be happy if one makes the frame!
Click to expand...

I have backed or will back no fewer than seven in the Ultima and the shortest price of the lot is the 20/1 I took ante-post about Noble Endeavor the other day. However, I won't count it for the sake of this thread.

One I will mention, in support of Grasshopper who mooted it on another thread, is Hendo's O O Seven 66/1 to 5 places. That's just a crazy price.
 
Back
Top