The Long Shot Thread

PlaceBacker said:
Mares-​Momella

Pretty confident she is better than this seasons form figures of FP!

Each Way @ 20-1 [Bet 365] 1/4
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For no particular reason, other than its the only race I have no each way selection for, I'll follow you with Momella. I can't be backing the jolly, nor can I can back the second favourite, who is probably named after my ex girlfriend haha. Seems like Solomon Grey's owners are winding me up this week.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I look like having a stack of seriously-long longshots tomorrow. I'll be happy if one makes the frame!

For example, in the Mares' race Gordon Elliott has just one runner (from four entries one of which was AJ) with Davy Russell up.

How wrong would it be to assume this is therefore the second-best mare in the yard?

I didn't do the form for the race as it isn't my type but could there be a scenario in which we're looking at the result and wondering why such a runner was allowed to be 100/1?

Lackaneen Leader is the mare in question.
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In similar vein, I've got some fun money on Slowmotion 66/1 in the same race. JP & Geraghty at 66/1?
 
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I have had a go at the following all small e/ways - most will qualify for this thread and i'm hopeful the majority will go off 21.0 or bigger.

1 Cheltenham 12th Mar - 13:30 Backing: Grand Sancy @ SP
2 Cheltenham 12th Mar - 14:10 Backing: Knocknanuss @ SP
3 Cheltenham 12th Mar - 14:50 Backing: Coo Star Sivola @ SP
4 Cheltenham 12th Mar - 15:30 Backing: Melon @ SP
5 Cheltenham 12th Mar - 16:10 Backing: Lady Buttons @ SP
6 Cheltenham 12th Mar - 16:50 Backing: Highway One O One @ SP
7 Cheltenham 12th Mar - 17:30 Backing: Whisperinthebreeze @ SP
 
Desert Orchid said:
I have backed or will back no fewer than seven in the Ultima and the shortest price of the lot is the 20/1 I took ante-post about Noble Endeavor the other day. However, I won't count it for the sake of this thread.

One I will mention, in support of Grasshopper who mooted it on another thread, is Hendo's O O Seven 66/1 to 5 places. That's just a crazy price.
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I confess I had a mild semi for about 23 furlongs! :lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Mares' Hurdle Tuesday - Good Thyne Tara 33/1 ew (Lad, 'boostable') - Second top on ORs, just 1lb behind BDD, and jt-second on RPRs, 5lbs off BDD.

Looks skelping ew value. I'll want to check the market w/o the fav on Tuesday morning too.
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I got a wee bit lucky there with poor Benie taking her fall. I also backed her ew at 20/1 w/o BDD and this morning was just a wee bit annoyed that I jumped in early as she went out to 50/1 in a place this morning.
 
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Double Handful said:
I think I've spotted a sneaky one in the Close Bros. tomorrow 4:50 - Ben Dundee 28/1 (5 places W Hill) or 25/1 (6 places Skybet).
At the Betfair preview night one of the only things I took out of it was that Gordon Elliot named Cubomania in this race as his fancy.
I made a note straight away to look at his other runners in the race. Ben Dundee has earlier novice chase form only 1 Length behind Delta Work.
After that race he won a 20F chase at Punch comfortably and had a PU and a fall after that before being eased off after a mistake LTO - and I believe with a view to securing this H'Cap mark. The more I look at this the more I'm convincing myself.
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I was out of the chair coming down the hill - then I looked again at Blackmore on the fav. Happy to have called the Elliot one right, but alas no big winner [emoji849]
 
Double Handful said:
I was out of the chair coming down the hill - then I looked again at Blackmore on the fav. Happy to have called the Elliot one right, but alas no big winner [emoji849]
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Great run and nice drift in price too. Well done on figuring out the Elliott conundrum :lol:
 
CRACKER FACTORY 450 40/1 cheekpieces 1st time.alan king usually has an outsider run well in this.
Sam TD takes the mount.
 
Pertemps - Black Mischief 33/1 ew - has a bit to do on my figures but has the profile to overcome the gap. This is my main bet in the race but there are others worth a punt at prices.

Other outsiders worth a pop: Coole Cody 40/1 & Tobefair 50/1.
 
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Next up...

Ryanair - Terrefort ew 25/1 4pl - Frodon (12/1) is my ante-post bet and main fancy but if he under-performs it's very open. Terrefort was Henderson's Hennessy horse off 159 and he wouldn't have trained it for the race off that mark unless he felt it was a 170+ animal. Things haven't gone to plan - or maybe they have - since then and he comes here nicely under the radar.
 
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Have backed Black Mischief ew myself, DO, and pretty-much agree with your assessment. Has something to find, but good yard/jockey combo for this type of race.

Along with my Terrefort punt in the Ryanair, I've also backed Bapaume in the Stayers at 25/1. He's ultra-consistent, guaranteed run his race, and whilst he might not be good enough to win, I think he can certainly get placed.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Next up...

Ryanair - Terrefort ew 25/1 4pl - Frodon (12/1) is my ante-post bet and main fancy but if he under-performs it's very open. Terrefort was Henderson's Hennessy horse off 159 and he wouldn't have trained it for the race off that mark unless he felt it was a 170+ animal. Things haven't gone to plan - or maybe they have - since then and he comes here nicely under the radar.
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Jaysuz. First he rips-off my OO Seven bet, and now he rips-off my Terrefort bet. You better not bogey this one too, DO! :lol:
 
Now for a couple of really wild ones, both in the mares' novice race...

Concertista 80/1
Awayinthewest 150/1

both ew 4 pl.

I don't study form for this race and usually leave it well alone but Awayinthewest is actually top-rated on RPRs so just looks completely under the radar.

Concertista just intrigues me. Makes her debut in this big race for top connections. Big price. Jacob wears the first silks on Allez Dance but is also a big price so there's maybe not much between them and Walsh has clearly asked off her but there's nothing to say they'll be too far off Ruby's mare. The market has maybe over-reacted to the situation.

Clearly high risk so small stakes for a bit of fun.
 
FWKM - Livelovelaugh 20/1 5pl - Measureofmydreams will be very hard to beat if back to his best but LLL has a bit of class about him and might be unexposed at the trip. Maybe a couple of other longshots to follow for this race.
 
Last up for today:

FWKM - Captain Chaos 22/1 - Well handicapped on my ratings and has struck me this season as being kept for something. Might be this, might be something at Aintree or Ayr National. Happy to pay to find out.
 
Desert Orchid said:
FWKM - Livelovelaugh 20/1 5pl - Measureofmydreams will be very hard to beat if back to his best but LLL has a bit of class about him and might be unexposed at the trip. Maybe a couple of other longshots to follow for this race.
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This I agree with. Sure it was running a stormer last year and fell
 
Desert Orchid said:
Pertemps - Black Mischief 33/1 ew - has a bit to do on my figures but has the profile to overcome the gap. This is my main bet in the race but there are others worth a punt at prices.

Other outsiders worth a pop: Coole Cody 40/1 & Tobefair 50/1.
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Great runs from all three. No complaints. Suspected SDB was a plot but not my price. The horse did brilliantly to get Geraghty out of trouble and I'll be rating him better than the bare form.
 
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