The Long Shot Thread

I was shouting the third home there as Black Mischief as I thought the commentator had identified it as such earlier in the race. I was so busy watching the race I wasn't listening to the commentary any more.

Now I need to watch the race again to see what happened to BM!
 
Beef or Salmon said:
How you could possibly suggest anything negative about Geraghty on the back of that ride is mind boggling to be honest
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You're reading a lot more into the comments than is there. The horse had a troubled passage from a long way out. I didn't suggest it was Geraghty's fault.

But I'll re-phrase it: the horse did brilliantly to get himself out of trouble. Happy?
 
Desert Orchid said:
You're reading a lot more into the comments than is there. The horse had a troubled passage from a long way out. I didn't suggest it was Geraghty's fault.

But I'll re-phrase it: the horse did brilliantly to get himself out of trouble. Happy?
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I'm very happy, thanks for the clarification at least.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Now for a couple of really wild ones, both in the mares' novice race...

Concertista 80/1
Awayinthewest 150/1

both ew 4 pl.

I don't study form for this race and usually leave it well alone but Awayinthewest is actually top-rated on RPRs so just looks completely under the radar.

Concertista just intrigues me. Makes her debut in this big race for top connections. Big price. Jacob wears the first silks on Allez Dance but is also a big price so there's maybe not much between them and Walsh has clearly asked off her but there's nothing to say they'll be too far off Ruby's mare. The market has maybe over-reacted to the situation.

Clearly high risk so small stakes for a bit of fun.
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Fuxake... mugged on the line by a 50/1 fuckin stablemate. Getting messed about going to the last wouldn't have helped either.
 
Top stuff DO.

I followed my own advice backed every Mullins runner e/w. Heard a pundit mention it last year, anything to do with a mare back Mullins. I thank them very much.

I wasn't bothered either way, gutted yours got done on nod.
 
Thanks for mentioning Concertista; just the sort of 'why is it running' horse that I like to back [eg Jaqueline Quest in the 1000]. Have had so many big priced seconds that it's probably my fault that she got mugged on the line...
 
Desert Orchid said:
Fuxake... mugged on the line by a 50/1 fuckin stablemate. Getting messed about going to the last wouldn't have helped either.
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Unlucky DO sometimes one mans bad luck is another mans good luck :whistle:

14-Mar-19
16:57:17
16:50 Cheltenham
Eglantine Du Seuil - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:157288790963 | Placed: 14-Mar-19 16:47:30
Back
150.00
7.00
--
1,043.00
Won
-------------------------------------------
14-Mar-19
17:06:15
16:50 Cheltenham
Eglantine Du Seuil - 6 TBP (6 TBP)
Betfair Bet ID 1:157288836206 | Placed: 14-Mar-19 16:47:51
Back
6.60
8.95
--
50.12
Won

--------------------------------------------
F/C FOR 13P
14th Mar CHELTENHAM 16:50 NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 0f 179y - Win
13. Concertista / 12. Buildmeupbuttercup / 10. Allez Dance / 17. Elfile / 16. Eglantine Du Seuil / 22. My Sister Sarah
--

Stake:
£3.90
Potential Returns:
£--

Bet ID: O/6561083/0006236
 
Desert Orchid said:
Brilliant, chef, really chuffed for you. As my mammy used to say, it's no loss what a frien' gets. Enjoy the winnings. I'd have settled for a place return before racing so no real complaints.
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Cheers mate - The winner was actually in my tracker but being Cheltenham so was about 30 other horses so far but this was the only one in this race so had a punt which has turned my Cheltenham from poor to very good.
 
Fakenham 4.35 Point Of Departure 20/1 - worth chancing a bet. Has obviously had problems but the form of his PTP and two NHF races makes his mark look extremely generous on his h'cap debut if problems sorted out.
 
I'll have a number of longshots today as per usual with the big handicaps on offer.

First up:

Triumph - Adjali ew 22/1 - It's hard to see past the fav but the owners of Adjali always see that a live hope is sent for this. I've also taken 12/1 win w/o the fav.

County - first up of a few (and I'll add the rest in due course) to squeeze it in before it shortens past the 20/1 mark:
We Have A Dream 25/1, 5pl - Hendo always puts one away for this and WHAD was touted to go to the top as a juvenile.

More to follow.
 
I didn't plan to back this one but just can't resist the price for one well up my figures:

County - Brex Drago 100/1 6pl - no real form for a wee while but has eased in the ratings since recording some decent, improving runs in the autumn. The trainer is more than capable of setting one up for a race like this although he couldn't really have expected him to make the cut.
 
Grand Annual - Theflyingportrait 50/1 - I'd planned to make this my main bet in the race, expecting it to be about 16/1 but it looks ignored by the bookies but my figures give it every chance of being in the shake-up so at the price it's impossible to pass up.

In the same race both Croco Bay (66/1) and All Set To Go (80/1) shouldn't be those prices on their best form. CB has looked on the way back this season and ASTG is potentially well in on his old hurdles form now that he's finding his feet over fences.
 
Cheltenham 2.10 Leoncavallo 20/1 - 30.0 on the machine - Has run very well over New course, distance and going. Falling at the last when challenging Sceau Royal before running and finishing 5th in 'THAT' Triumph behind Apple's Jade and Footpad and in front of Clan Des Obeaux and Frodon. He ran well in his only hurdle race this season finishing 3rd 3 1/2L behind Sharjah but nicely ahead of Bedrock, Le Richebourg, Good Thyme Tara, Whiskey Sour & Ivanovich Gorbatov. Trainer is a big positive as well.
 
Martin Pipe - Again a few nibbles at odds that strike me as too long:

Garo De Juilley 25/1 6pl
Coolanly 25/1
Casa Tall 50/1 6pl
Style De Garde 33/1
 
Desert Orchid said:
County - first up of a few (and I'll add the rest in due course) to squeeze it in before it shortens past the 20/1 mark:
We Have A Dream 25/1, 5pl - Hendo always puts one away for this and WHAD was touted to go to the top as a juvenile.
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Beaten by that bastert Ch'tibello, the subject of discussion aplenty on the non-triers' thread. Did I back it? Did I fvck. I let the price put me off cos I wasn't getting 20/1+.

This was touted for the Champion Hdle when it was coming through the ranks. They clearly realised it wasn't going to win that so set about getting its mark back down.

Skelton has out-Hendo'd Hendo, beating his pair into the places - and they were clear of the Irish plot. Ridiculously strong form.
 
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