The Long Shot Thread

2.05 Haydock
Flashjack can outrun his odds here in these conditions. His win at Fontwell last season reads well beating Vive le Roi who ran well at Newbury and is now rated 137. Flashjack runs off 134 today and Richard Patrick takes a handy 3lb off. 22/1 with Power


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viking said:
2.05 Haydock
Flashjack can outrun his odds here in these conditions. His win at Fontwell last season reads well beating Vive le Roi who ran well at Newbury and is now rated 137. Flashjack runs off 134 today and Richard Patrick takes a handy 3lb off. 22/1 with Power


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Excellent work [emoji106]
 
viking said:
2.05 Haydock
Flashjack can outrun his odds here in these conditions. His win at Fontwell last season reads well beating Vive le Roi who ran well at Newbury and is now rated 137. Flashjack runs off 134 today and Richard Patrick takes a handy 3lb off. 22/1 with Power


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Well done Viking! I sadly missed this :mad:
 
I think ASO 40/1 is far too big a price relative to his ability in the King George.

His run behind Frodon at the Festival is very decent form. On ORs alone he's only 3lb (four lengths?) behind Clan Des Obeaux and a pound better than Footpad who is only 15/2.

I'm not suggesting he can win and with only two places going two of the big three will have to underperform to some degree. But he really shouldn't be anywhere near 40/1.

I've taken a small win bet at the price but have gone in much more heavily at 12/1 in the place-only market. I'm not expecting a return but the odds are just plain wrong, I reckon.
 
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The way yesterday's race fell apart, Aso's best form would have put him second. However, he was another who went through a spell of sticky jumping, losing ground and momentum. Ended up not too far off second.

(2 mins in.)

Today I've stuck a very speculative eachway bet on Field Exhibition at 50/1 in the Welsh Nash.

Her stamina might well be a serious issue - probably the reason for the generosity of odds - but at one point last year she was giving Magic Of Light a serious time of it when unseating at the last. I hope to see her race prominently on the assumption that she stays as she should have plenty of pace and then simply hope she does have the stamina for the last half-mile.
 
Stalked Elegant Escape the whole way jumping beautifully until a slight mistake six out signalled the start of her stamina ebbing.

It was a great race to watch, though. Smashing to watch all the way up the straight.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Stalked Elegant Escape the whole way jumping beautifully until a slight mistake six out signalled the start of her stamina ebbing.

It was a great race to watch, though. Smashing to watch all the way up the straight.
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My main bet was Yala Enki. Several times I thought he was done and several time he just stayed and stayed. One I wouldn’t rule out of an Aintree Nash for the places
 
From the eye, it looks like it was slowly run, even on that ground. Was on the fav and decided not to have a saver on the winner, but think that Power should have kept the fab rolling when he got behind the heels of the leaders turning in. Disappointing how he didn't pick up. Winner very well laid out for it.
 
Leopardstown 12.50 Court Maid 25/1 - odds look high for a mare whose last 3 races have been 2 x grade 2's & a Grade 1 - ran respectfully in them all. Off for 8 months and has to prove she will stay 3m in very soft ground though.
 
I'm putting this up now in case I'm not in a position to get any bets on in the morning>

I'm prepared to give Outlander 40/1 (2.00 Chel) another chance in the big handicap chase. He was bought out of Giggi on the eve of the Grand National but ran better than I expected (for a likely non-stayer and hunted round in rear for the first circuit) to finish ninth. His best form is at shorter and he went up to 168 for winning the 2016 Lexus and went off at just 10/1 next time out in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. I suspect the handicapper has over-reacted to his National run followed by a forgivable seasonal reintroduction in dropping him to 150. His new trainer is quite adept with others' cast-offs and if he can find the key to a revival in fortunes then he could be chucked in here and James Bowen is hardly a negative. However, he seems quite weak in the betting so another day might be the plan but I'm happy to take a chance here with a small saver.
 
Outlander is ridiculously weak this morning, out to 100/1 and much bigger at Betfair. Looks like he's being readied for the weekend milk round.

Still, the masochist in me couldn't resist 33/1 for a top three finish.
 
Copied & pasted from the Handicapping Issue thread:
I'm maybe reading a bit too much into this but I note that the yard runs Carole's Destrier in the big race today which is twice as valuable as the race Doing Fine won during the week. Doing Fine was clearly about 7lbs well in yet they went for a lesser race and kept Carole's Destrier back for this veterans' final. Do they think Carole's Destrier is better handicapped? At 16/1, I'm happy to pay to find out. He's also weak in the market but I let that put me off Doing Fine.
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Carole's Destrier (I do hope they don't pronounce it 'Destraayer' - that gets right on my tackitybits) is now 25/1 in a few places so now qualifies comfortably for the thread. Obviously the weakness is a concern but it didn't stop Doing Fine the other day.
 
Catterick 1.00 Frankies Fire 25/1 in places - speculative small e/way - selection has won three 3m PTP's - tailed off in two 2m hurdle races and makes her h'cap debut over 3m off bottom weight.
 
Gortroe Joe in the Lanzarote tomorrow. 20/1 with 365, could be bigger elsewhere. Nearly put this up on Boxing Day but life got in the way, and it ran on to finish 4th. Comes back here over course and distance and has a real live outside chance for me, well in with the weights.

Cobden rides it, which puts me off slightly. He’s an excellent jockey and a great booking, but if it had a real chance of winning I can’t see why they wouldn’t put Bridget on. Anyway at the prices I’ll pay to find out. Think Notre Pari could well be the winner, but that’s the jolly, think Gortroe Joe could be best of the rest, and maybe even get his nose infront.
 
I've been unable to resist a very small each-way on Connetable at 125/1 in the Pertemps race at Warwick.

A number of poor runs since leaving Nicholls require forgiving but he was placed in the 2018 Pertemps Final off 10lbs higher and I'm crossing my fingers that he's been doing something at home in his long absence to suggest that maybe he still has a decent run in him and first time up may be the time to catch him.

He's obviously much more likely to live up to his long odds and pull up early but I'm a hopeful and forgiving sort of chap....
 
I thought Connetable ran very well for the first two miles or so and will keep him in mind. Maybe he was short of work as he remained weak in the market.

I'm not sure how much time I'll have on my hands tomorrow so I'm putting this one up now. It might well drift through the morning to longer odds but someone has had a nibble at it this afternoon.

Asc 3.00 Aintree My Dream 33/1. Once rated 137 as a novice hurdler for Skelton he became disappointing and was sold on. First time up for his new trainer he went back up to 136 after winning a modest handicap chase before losing his form again. He's been a wee bit more consistent this season over hurdles so I find it interesting that they've decided to venture back up to chases again in this valuable race off 127. If he's as good as he was he probably shouldn't be 33/1 and Paddy Brennan looks a serious booking. Maybe the Topham is on the agenda, given its name, but maybe he should just be renamed Aintree My Arse; either way, I'm comfortable with playing along.
 
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Doncaster 3.25 Delirious Love. 25/1

Best of the big prices in the race and could well go close.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Asc 3.00 Aintree My Dream 33/1. Once rated 137 as a novice hurdler for Skelton he became disappointing and was sold on. First time up for his new trainer he went back up to 136 after winning a modest handicap chase before losing his form again. He's been a wee bit more consistent this season over hurdles so I find it interesting that they've decided to venture back up to chases again in this valuable race off 127. If he's as good as he was he probably shouldn't be 33/1 and Paddy Brennan looks a serious booking. Maybe the Topham is on the agenda, given its name, but maybe he should just be renamed Aintree My Arse; either way, I'm comfortable with playing along.
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Mixed feelings watching that race.

Very disappointed to see him give them a substantial start and assumed it was a total non-trier for the first mile. Then the commentator said something about it being kept deliberately away from the others as it didn't like being crowded and that eased my worries a little. Then he made eye-catching progress round the inside and I started to get optimistic but his effort petered out once they straightened up. He did plug on to an extent but, in reality, he was never put in the race with a serious chance. He might need a weaker, smaller field if he doesn't like being crowded.

On to today.

Cheltenham 1.50 - Cool Mix 28/1 - an improving novice last season, he's been pretty slow to come to hand this time round but wasn't beaten far in a decent race at Musselburgh last time and Iain Jardine is a wee bit like Jim Goldie in that he tends not to venture very far south unless he thinks he has a chance. We'll see.
 
Don 3.15 - Monbeg River 20/1 - without looking back through the thread, I'm pretty sure I put this one up for this race last year and it ran a smasher in second. It's 5lbs lower today so I didn't look any further. A guess, you could argue, but there's some kind of logic behind it!

I've also taken it in an ew double with the Jardine beast (600+/1).
 
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