The Long Shot Thread

Kempton 1.20 Vision Clear 40/1 small e/way - Conditional jockey race - odds look generous for a C/D winner who is being ridden by a conditional jockey who has had C/D experience on this horse in a better graded race than this.
 
No that's probably as good as he is. Unfortunately the winner is a better horse but nearly threw it away with the jump at the last.
 
swedish chef said:
Kempton 1.20 Vision Clear 40/1 small e/way - Conditional jockey race - odds look generous for a C/D winner who is being ridden by a conditional jockey who has had C/D experience on this horse in a better graded race than this.
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Great shout


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I have three longshots in the Betfair Hurdle.

I took 14/1 Pic D'Orhy on the morning of its last run in anticipation of a big run and a shortening in odds for this. It turned out he wasn't put in the race and the price lengthened. He's widely available at 25/1 which is a worry but Nicholls expressed a very high opinion of this horse in his pre-Cheltenham media day this time last year. The County or another Festival handicap might be the target but I'm encouraged that Cobden takes the ride here.

The other one is Remiluc who seemed to be on an upward curve the season before last when not beaten too far in this and the County. The handicapper has dropped him quite a bit and he was never put in the race last time. Chris Gordon does not tilt at windmills and I'm curious that Alan King appears to have allowed Tom Cannon to ride when he has a much shorter-priced entry (Harambe) but he might feel he needs the claimer's allowance to be competitive. Remiluc is readily available at 100/1 this evening. I'm already on.

I'll post the third longshot in the morning. I'm hoping it will be pushed out a bit as the market takes shape and I'm holding off on betting it until then.

I make no apologies for taking a scattergun to races such as this. As long as the odds are considerably longer than I think they should be I'll back as many as fit the bill!
 
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I’ve thought for some time now the Coral Cup is the plan with Pic D’Orhy. Get his mark down over two and step him up to two and a half at the Festival. The only worry now is he gets in the boys race off his revised mark so he’s nrnb material. I also think Remilluc will be a nice haymaker at a big price in the County. Today might not be the day for either I suspect. The market certainly says so.
 
Maruco said:
I’ve thought for some time now the Coral Cup is the plan with Pic D’Orhy. Get his mark down over two and step him up to two and a half at the Festival. The only worry now is he gets in the boys race off his revised mark so he’s nrnb material. I also think Remilluc will be a nice haymaker at a big price in the County. Today might not be the day for either I suspect. The market certainly says so.
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Both crossed my mind, Maruco, but it implies Nicholls doesn't have a well-handicapped 2-mile hurdler and how likely is that? Why sacrifice this race for what might be a more competitive (and less valuable?) one where there might be an invasion of Irish dark horses?
 
I think Nichols measures himself against Cheltenham winners, and winning a handicap there is more valuable to him and his reputation Maurice. He struggles to compete against Willie, Gordon, and Nicky in in Grade 1’s at recent Festivals, and he sees the handicaps as the way of keeping his name in lights, and his Cheltenham tally going. Look at where most of his Festival winners have come from in recent seasons. He absolutely targets them. And often with horses that could have targeted this race.
 
The better ground today may help Whoshotthesheriff who may have faced an impossible task trying to give 2lb to Bold Plan (a non stayer LTO) and ran OK last time behind Not So Sleepy having been forced wide and meets that one 18lb better off
22/1 with Bet365 (5 places)


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viking said:
The better ground today may help Whoshotthesheriff who may have faced an impossible task trying to give 2lb to Bold Plan (a non stayer LTO) and ran OK last time behind Not So Sleepy having been forced wide and meets that one 18lb better off
22/1 with Bet365 (5 places)
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There seemed to be money for it yesterday evening. It was one of the few that went blue pretty much across the board from just before teatime. I presumed someone of influence had put it up.
 
Desert Orchid said:
There seemed to be money for it yesterday evening. It was one of the few that went blue pretty much across the board from just before teatime. I presumed someone of influence had put it up.
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Well I might have some influence in my own household (even that’s debatable) but nowhere else [emoji16]


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Desert Orchid said:
I have three longshots in the Betfair Hurdle.

I'll post the third longshot in the morning. I'm hoping it will be pushed out a bit as the market takes shape and I'm holding off on betting it until then.
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The third longshot is Neft for Gary Moore who has an excellent record in this race. I can find no reason for this one to win so I'm curious that he's relying in this one when Distingo has run against a number of these this season. I got in at 50/1 but I notice it is shortening across the board without going blue. I think the current best price is 40/1.
 
Tamaroc Du Mathan in the Betfair Hurdle.

Could be 10lbs well-in here, on a line through Master Debonair, and very lightly raced to date. Last run needs to be forgiven (possibly came too soon after seasonal debut), but if he can revert to something like his previous Ascot form, he has the potential to make a mockery of a mark of 130.

66/1 generally available, and around 110 on the machine.
 
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In the Game Spirit, I've taken 66/1 (boosted to 80s) and 22/1 w/o Altior Simply Ned, both each-way. I think that's way too big for him. Sure he's getting on and sure he's got plenty to find with Altior but, for my money, he doesn't have anything to find with the rest of this field.

Just over a year ago he was beating the 166-rated even money shot Footpad and before that he'd emerged as the same horse at the weights as Sceau Royal who is only 11/1 and 100/30 in the respective markets. I can see Ned being ridden to ignore Altior and focus on doing his best against the others. I think his age is partly to blame for his price but I'm not convinced the evience is there that he isn't as good as he was just over a year ago. After all, the time before last, he was six lengths behind Defi to whom he was giving 3lbs and the latter went up to 166 for that and is now 171.

I'm happy to discount his poor run in Ireland last time and I think the better ground here will be very much in his favour.

I think he has just about as good a chance of being second as any of the others and if Altior doesn't run his race I see know reason why he shouldn't have just as good a chance of winning.

Fun money, obviously.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the Game Spirit, I've taken 66/1 (boosted to 80s) and 22/1 w/o Altior Simply Ned, both each-way. I think that's way too big for him. Sure he's getting on and sure he's got plenty to find with Altior but, for my money, he doesn't have anything to find with the rest of this field.

Just over a year ago he was beating the 166-rated even money shot Footpad and before that he'd emerged as the same horse at the weights as Sceau Royal who is only 11/1 and 100/30 in the respective markets. I can see Ned being ridden to ignore Altior and focus on doing his best against the others. I think his age is partly to blame for his price but I'm not convinced the evience is there that he isn't as good as he was just over a year ago. After all, the time before last, he was six lengths behind Defi to whom he was giving 3lbs and the latter went up to 166 for that and is now 171.

I'm happy to discount his poor run in Ireland last time and I think the better ground here will be very much in his favour.

I think he has just about as good a chance of being second as any of the others and if Altior doesn't run his race I see know reason why he shouldn't have just as good a chance of winning.

Fun money, obviously.
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Got a great run for small money. Still in there boxing going to the last looking anything but an 80/1 shot. If Altior won I needed him to be third for the ew place in the without market but you pays your money and all that.
 
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