The Long Shot Thread

That’s absolutely top stuff Maurice. My theories about waiting for March were well and truly dismissed. Not a penny on when I’ve got ap bets, which is incredibly dumb. I should have been covering my Cheltenham bets just in case. I’ve got a bunch of distractions at the moment and I need to get my head in the game. I didn’t have a bet in the race, but the only three horses I was interested in finished 1-2-3. The trifecta paid almost 60k and it’s a bet I like in these races.

Also Nick you pulling out the Nicholls horse. That’s some shout that is. I can genuinely say I would never have found that one.
 
Maruco said:
That’s absolutely top stuff Maurice. My theories about waiting for March were well and truly dismissed. Not a penny on when I’ve got ap bets, which is incredibly dumb. I should have been covering my Cheltenham bets just in case. I’ve got a bunch of distractions at the moment and I need to get my head in the game. I didn’t have a bet in the race, but the only three horses I was interested in finished 1-2-3. The trifecta paid almost 60k and it’s a bet I like in these races.

Also Nick you pulling out the Nicholls horse. That’s some shout that is. I can genuinely say I would never have found that one.
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Cheers, Paul - grateful to have had the 6-places with Sky, otherwise I’d have been sick.

Not in the same league as DO’s picks, mind.
 
I've taken 50/1 ew NRNB Stolen Silver for both the Supreme and Ballymore.

I've had another look at the Betfair Hurdle and reckon this fellow could have finished a bit closer.

He was caught on his heels at the standing start and was one of the last to jump but soon got through to sit close to Quoi De Neuf in midfield on the inside. His jockey was trying to coax him to maintain his pace round the bend and he maybe didn't have much daylight. Still being niggled, he held his position until squeezed rounding the final bend, the result of which was that he straightened up for three out in just about last place, ridden along. He was still last two out and at the final flight but stayed on past beaten horses, ending up pressing for the lead in the second wave at the line.

He wore the first colours while sir Valentine wore the second ones. If he was thought to have the better chance perhaps they were expecting a better showing on the day so maybe on another day we'll see the real horse.

He was off 145. If they fancied him he'd need to be 150 in the eyes of connections. The trainer sent Al Dancer out to win the Betfair (albeit at Ascot) last season for which he went up to 152 and went off 9/2 jf for the Supreme, in which he disappointed.

Going into Saturday's race, Stolen Silver was already rated higher than Al Dancer. I honestly don't know how fancied or otherwise he was other than being a 16/1 shot as opposed to AD being 5/2f but I suspect he's probably a 150+ animal, which would make him some way better than many of those ahead of him in the betting lists, quite a few of which won't run anyway, and the NRNB concession is a fair safety net.
 
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I've taken three so far for the Grand National.

I can't recall if I mentioned the first one back in January when I backed it but I took Le Breuil at 50/1. It's now around 25/1 tops and 16/1 in places so job done on the value front but there has to be an outside chance he won't make the cut off 145. On the other hand, a place or two either side of entry number 80 has been getting in lately and he's 71 on the list.

Last week I mentioned on the GN thread that I'd taken Anibale Fly at 28/1 NRNB. It looks like I forgot to post it on this thread so I'm correcting that as it's still the same price.

Today I added Ballyoptic, also at 28/1 NRNB. I'm kicking myself just a little as I shortlisted him for Saturday's race and I usually bet such types for Aintree beforehand, just in case they win and especially if the odds are very long. I hadn't checked him out but apparently he'd been 66/1. If I'd realised that...

My brother phoned me about six weeks ago to tell me to check out the video of last year's race as he felt this one was unlucky in running. I didn't do it because my eyes are so bad at the moment. On Saturday there, I knew early on he was right on the job so it was no surprise to see him win as I knew he was well handicapped. I reckon he'll go up 7/8lbs for that - we'll find out in the morning - and when the racing media's number-crunchers latch on his price will halve, certainly by the day of the race. Last year Tiger Roll was something like 9lbs well in. I think it does not make sense to ignore those kinds of numbers. The handicapper is telling us this one is very well handicapped.
 
I have an embarrassing number of bets on the National, so it's not uncommon or very clever of me to have the winner. However, as I bet on the race for ages before it's actually run the winner is often the first horse I backed. One year it was MonMome at 33/1; a bet I didn't top up and the rest, as they say, is history. This years early bets are Ballyoptic and Le Breuil. I've always had it in my head that Ballyoptic is a bad jumper; probably because we were at Wetherby when he took a crashing fall in a hurdle race and I feared he'd been lost. On Saturday he was superb. If he gets into that sort of a rhythm at Aintree he must have a massive chance. I backed Elegant Escape for the National on Saturday, though. Does anyone know if the stable said why he ran so badly?
 
The handicapper has gifted us another very viable longshot for the National - Lord Du Mesnil 50/1 NRNB.

He's been raised 6lbs for Saturday's very good run at Haydock and he looks a jumper tailor-made for Aintree. He's ridiculously fluent at his fences and I don't think he's made a mistake at Haydock the last twice I've seen him. If he takes to the Aintree fences as fluently he'll gain at least half a length at nearly every one. He also races prominently, which I like.

In the back of my mind I was sure he was already a 16/1 shot so didn't bother checking him out but he's 50/1 NRNB in places and that is even better value than Ballyoptic.

A must for the portfolio with the concession and will surely more than halve in price in the meantime.
 
I was very impressed with him on Saturday but seems a bit young for the National. Did check out his trainer though, having noticed he has a 33% strike rate at the moment.
 
You've just reminded me, moehat. I think his age (7) occurred to me on Saturday morning as a negative [for the National] but it went right out of my head this morning when I was checking the prices. Normally I wouldn't touch a 7yo with a barge pole in this race but I'd still be interested in it at such a big price. I suppose something at some point is going to buck the big negative stat against the age group.
 
Many Clouds was technically still a 7 year old when he won. However, when a horse that is regarded officially as a 7 year old wins the National I'll definitely give up punting it. Then again, the race itself is changing out of all recognition so it might just happen. I still haven't got used to 8 year olds winning it. I'm hoping Taking Risks gets into the race and reverts the trend.
 
Warwick 3.00 Rayna's World 20/1 - worth risking a small bet. She has shown some solid form since racing at 2m to 2 1/2m in her last 3 races. At the end of October she gave Cornerstone Lad a fright off level weights over 2m on heavy on the flat btn 1/2L . Her first hurdle race she wasn't disgraced finishing 3rd behind Ribble Valley & Sir Valentine with Proscema well behind in 4th. She then ran in a mares hurdle and bumped into one, Clondaw Caitlin (won easy n/t/o) and the well btn 3rd has won twice since. If she is not over the top from a long season then I think she is better than her mark and could be competitive in this race.
 
Not my main bet in the race but I've taken Crievehill 25/1, 5 places, in the big race today.

It seemed on a steep curve prior to its last defeat so I presume its extended absence meant there was a problem to start with and maybe they then decided to preserve its mark. It holds a National entry and now that the weights are out they can unleash it in this valuable race. The stable took the big race at Ascot last week with Ballyoptic and have a decent record in this, including with outsiders.

On the face of it, he doesn't have the form to win but if he can get back on that steep curve he can at least be competitive.

PS - also took 66/1 NRNB for the National, just in case. In for a penny and all that.
 
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Fairyhouse 1.45 Surfing Tenor 50/1 small e/way - Finished a respectable 4th in his first race (NHF) at Balinrobe. Then his only other race was at the Punchestown festival (NHF) where his saddle slipped very early in the race but jockey & horse completed. This may or may not have hidden some possible ability? Todays race is quite moderate so I am chancing a small e/way at the odds.
 
swedish chef said:
Fairyhouse 1.45 Surfing Tenor 50/1 small e/way - Finished a respectable 4th in his first race (NHF) at Balinrobe. Then his only other race was at the Punchestown festival (NHF) where his saddle slipped very early in the race but jockey & horse completed. This may or may not have hidden some possible ability? Todays race is quite moderate so I am chancing a small e/way at the odds.
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Brilliant spot again Chef , I just went to put a few quid on it and its now 8/1 . Best of luck
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've taken 50/1 ew NRNB Stolen Silver for both the Supreme and Ballymore.

I've had another look at the Betfair Hurdle and reckon this fellow could have finished a bit closer.

He was caught on his heels at the standing start and was one of the last to jump but soon got through to sit close to Quoi De Neuf in midfield on the inside. His jockey was trying to coax him to maintain his pace round the bend and he maybe didn't have much daylight. Still being niggled, he held his position until squeezed rounding the final bend, the result of which was that he straightened up for three out in just about last place, ridden along. He was still last two out and at the final flight but stayed on past beaten horses, ending up pressing for the lead in the second wave at the line.

He wore the first colours while sir Valentine wore the second ones. If he was thought to have the better chance perhaps they were expecting a better showing on the day so maybe on another day we'll see the real horse.

He was off 145. If they fancied him he'd need to be 150 in the eyes of connections. The trainer sent Al Dancer out to win the Betfair (albeit at Ascot) last season for which he went up to 152 and went off 9/2 jf for the Supreme, in which he disappointed.

Going into Saturday's race, Stolen Silver was already rated higher than Al Dancer. I honestly don't know how fancied or otherwise he was other than being a 16/1 shot as opposed to AD being 5/2f but I suspect he's probably a 150+ animal, which would make him some way better than many of those ahead of him in the betting lists, quite a few of which won't run anyway, and the NRNB concession is a fair safety net.
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I see Paul Kealy headlines Stolen Silver in his ante-post column in the Weekender but it's for the Coral Cup so I've followed him in at 20/1 NRNB.

The case he argues is not far off verbatim to what I argue above in terms of his Betfair Hurdle run but he thinks the horse might not be fast enough for a Supreme and might not want to take on Envoi in the Ballymore. He thinks he'll improve a lot for the step up in trip.

The NRNB concession allows me to speculate in this race too. The chances are if he does run here he won't be 20/1.
 
I've also taken 40/1 NRNB Any Time Will Do for the Skeltons in the Pertemps Final.

It's part sickness insurance, part value stab.

I backed this one earlier in the year when I felt it was ridden very negatively in a race it could have won. Having seen what the Skeltons did to get Ch'tibello into the County off a winning mark, I wouldn't put anything past them and if this one turns up on the day it's unlikely to be anywhere near 40s.
 
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I've thrown my first dart at the County Hurdle.

It's clear the Skeltons target this race with wins for Ch'tibelllo, Mohaayed and Superb Story in the last four years. I promised myself I would back anything they ran this year.

They have four entries: Ch'tibello, Mohaayed, Sofia's Rock and West Cork.

Ch'tibello will be 9lbs higher than last year. I rate last year's race very highly and think he can run well off that mark but it's likely to stop him winning.

Mohaayed is no fewer than 11lbs lower than when a creditable seventh last year. He has shortened this morning and is very much one to keep onside but, for now at least, it's one of the other two that attracts me and, to be honest, did from the day I saw the entries.

Sofia's Rock was a good Flat horse, 100+ at his best, for Mark Johnston and has already shown decent form over hurdles. Skelton got him handicapped last spring (140) and I wouldn't be surprised if this has been the plan since he did too much out in front in the Swinton.

He couldn't have been expected to beat Silver Streak at levels first time up this season but again probably did too much out in front and lost a shoe during the race.

Next time, he was restrained in midfield in a lesser handicap which bore all the hallmarks of a sighter of some sort.

They then brought him to Cheltenham for a C&D handicap but he refused to settle and was beaten from two out.

The handicapper has refused to drop him for these runs so clearly doesn't think they represent his true ability. I reckon the Skeltons have been plotting him up not expecting Mohaayed to get in off 142 but the latter is only about 14/1 and blue.

West Cork is not discounted yet but he appeared the other day and ran well but couldn't defy a second 9lbs rise. I plan to watch that race again but I suspect he was being used as a yardstick to Sofia's Rock. If he turns up I'll throw some sickness insurance at him but he isn't a bet for now.

I've taken Sofia's Rock at 20/1 NRNB and 33/1 (boosted) without the concession.
 
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I've backed Little Bruce for the Cross Country at 33/1. I know he's up against Tiger Roll but he stays forever and he had a spin over the fences the other day. Only tiny but brave as they come.
 
First pop at the Grand Annual:

There's a strong chance it won't make the cut and if it does there's a strong chance it will be out of the weights a little but if it does make it to the race it might shorten up a bit.

Tree Of Liberty 50/1 NRNB - its form over last season and this reads 240U-068 so on the face of it it's in freefall and deserves to be a big price. If that's how things are I'd hope they didn't bother sending it for the race and if they did I'd hope it wasn't just a social runner. It's also changed stables in the off-season but not owners so maybe they're just seeing if a change of scenery sparks a recovery of form but so far without success. So to all intents and purposes this is a bad bet.

Just as many said about Croco Bay last year. (Not on here, I must add, just general consensus in the media.)

So why does it interest me? Purely on the numbers is the only answer I can offer.

Last January it went up to 148 for failing by half a length to give Capeland 10lbs. Now off 130 It is scheduled to reoppose on no fewer than 29-33lbs better terms and Capeland is likely to be around the 12/1 mark if it runs. Like Capeland, it's only just turned eight so it would be a shame if it's just gone sour but maybe its fortunes will turn again at some point.

It was never competitive off 147 behind Croco Bay last year but will be up to 22lbs better off for 22 lengths.

I don't know much about the very small yard it's now in but if it doesn't run there's no harm done and if it does some pundit somewhere might latch on to it on the day.

You never know.

And it qualifies under the non-winner of a handicap this season stat :cool:
 
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I have a couple of longshots (to fun stakes) for tomorrow.

I'll need to wait until the morning with at least one as there's a 90% chance of a Rule 4 and I don't think the price will contract once the other horse is withdrawn.

In the meantime, I'm suggesting an 80/1 double at Newbury

First up is Strong Pursuit 8/1 in the 2.05. I picked this out at 12/1 this afternoon but there was no indication at oddschecker about BOG with any of the usual bookies so I decided to wait until the indication came up. It's blue across the board and still no indication about BOG but when I went into the bookie's site it was there. It's chance is hardly obvious so I'm intrigue that it's shortened so much. A heavy defeat on its only start this season is excusable. A lifeless run preceded by an injudicious ride last season are excusable to a degree. However, a smart win here off 139 on his only run the season before suggested he was on a nice curve and he remains lightly raced for a 'veteran'. The market move augurs well for an improved performance off 132.

The other is Enrichissant at 8/1 in the 3.15. Those of you with long enough memories will recall that I put up San Benedeto at 25/1 for this last year and I could have been keen enough on his chances this year were it not for the going. I'm not sure he'll like it deep. I can't even risk sickness insurance on Mont Des Avaloirs at shortish odds because I've never been convinced by its finishing efforts. It has shortened up from 8s to 4s. I can't see Secret Investor liking the ground either and I wouldn't be surprised if they have something in mind at either Aintree or Ayr for him. Enrichissant has gone up 13lbs for his last win in heavy ground and might just be a steep-curve type having just turned six so I'm rowing in with him. If he completes the double for me he'll be living up to his name.
 
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First up this morning is Bryden Boy 33/1 (boostable and to four places with Hills) in the 1.50 Doncaster.

Heavy ground and the long straight at Doncaster will make this an attritional race and I'm not convinced that many of those near the head of the market will appreciate the test. One who will, if he turns up ready to run his race, is Bryden Boy. All of his best form is in heavy or soft at around this trip and in these conditions I like older horses. For some reason they seem more able to withstand the demands. These old plodders are often less inconvenienced by them and on his best recent form he wouldn't be far away even if the others do cope.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I have a couple of longshots (to fun stakes) for tomorrow.

I'll need to wait until the morning with at least one as there's a 90% chance of a Rule 4 and I don't think the price will contract once the other horse is withdrawn.
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The one I had in mind here was Ascot De Bruyere in the Grimthorpe which was a lovely price last night. The non-runner I was waiting for was Definitly Red but he was still officially doubly engaged half an hour ago. At that point three or four others had come out, including the favourite, with not much movement in ADB's price. At the time Chapman said he'd been in touch with Brian Ellison and been told DR definitely goes to Kelso ADB was still 25/1. DR, around 8/1, comes out and they cut him to 16s tops and 11s in places. That's annoying. It no longer qualifies for the thread but I felt obliged to clarify why I'd written what I did last night.

And Newbury's off so that's the 80/1 double a no-go too.

At least Bryden Boy appears to be attracting some attention.
 
Desert Orchid said:
First up this morning is Brydon Boy 33/1 (boostable and to four places with Hills) in the 1.50 Doncaster.

Heavy ground and the long straight at Doncaster will make this an attritional race and I'm not convinced that many of those near the head of the market will appreciate the test. One who will, if he turns up ready to run his race, is Brydon Boy. All of his best form is in heavy or soft at around this trip and in these conditions I like older horses. For some reason they seem more able to withstand the demands. These old plodders are often less inconvenienced by them and on his best recent form he wouldn't be far away even if the others do cope.
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He’d certainly have a chance off 118 if getting back to the form he showed when only 4 lengths behind Doc Penfro who’s now rated 135. I’m in at 33/1 with SkyBet


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