The Long Shot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
First up this morning is Bryden Boy 33/1 (boostable and to four places with Hills) in the 1.50 Doncaster.
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Job done. Happy enough.

They seemed to go slow so the classier leaders didn't stop as much. I'm not sure what the commentator was drinking. At the last he said the front three were a furlong clear. At the line the third was only about 10 lengths ahead of B Boy.
 
Leopardtown 15:05

Any race where Mengli Khan is the favourite, is one where you pretty-much have to look for alternatives, and in what looks a poor race for the money, I'll take a swing at Espoin Du Chenet at 33/1.

EDC comfortably won his first start in juvenile hurdles at Auteuil in the autumn of 2017, before being pitched into G1 company against Master Dino (winner) annd Klassical Dream (4th). Whilst EDC was a no-show in the race, he hasn't seen the track since, and it's not impossible to think that he may have picked-up an injury for his efforts. Two-and-a-bit years down the line, he makes his comeback today for Garrett Power, in a first-time tongue-tie.

If his previous trainer wasn't tilting at windmills with that G1 entry, then it wouldn't be unreasonable to think he might be a 140+ horse, which almost certainly brings him right into the mix here. The gamble currently underway on Charli Parcs, tells you pretty-much everything you need to know about the strength of the race - I just hope that everyone else has alighted on the wrong alternative to the head of the market.
 
Followed you in, GH, because the logic makes sense to me.

My gut feeling, though, is that a big handicap further down the line (Galway Hurdle?) is on the agenda and today is about getting a mark closer to 130.
 
Some big priced placed horses going in in some of those Irish handicap hurdles with loads of runners at the moment. Some paying out first 5. I'm having a bit of fun backing market movers in them.
 
Leopardstown 2.20 All Class 33/1 e/way 5 places sportsbook - In her last race she was 8th, btn 40 1/2L behind The Big Getaway, the 2nd & 6th btn 17L & 40L have come out and won n/t/o - so a chance is taken she may be on a nice mark?
 
I've dipped another toe in the murky waters of the handicap races.

The piranhas will probably strip it to the bone but here goes.

I've backed Danny Kirwan in both races for which he holds entries, the Coral Cup (40/1 NRNB) and the M Pipe (33/1 NRNB) both to 5 places. I presume the latter race is the target as he's as short as 12/1 NRNB for it (Skybet).

This forum was all over DK as a bumper horse and many expected it to take high rank in due course among the novice hurdlers. Terms like "the real deal" were used by people who watch bumpers much more closely than I do.

He bombed at Aintree in his bumper year and lost at 1/2f on his reappearance last season before losing to Angel's Breath who went on to be one of the favourites for the Supreme. Another 427-day absence meant he didn't reappear until just less than a fortnight ago when he had the race at his mercy when sprawling out of it at the last. He needed that run to get a good enough mark to make the cut for next week and I imagine they'll be happy with 139. I also imagine they will have a line to him with Pic D'Orhy for the same owners.

It's a bit speculative, obviously, but why are Sky so short? For me that makes Danny Kirwan quite an attractive proposition although perhaps not as attractive as Dervla at her pouting best in Ballykissangel.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've dipped another toe in the murky waters of the handicap races.

The piranhas will probably strip it to the bone but here goes.

I've backed Danny Kirwan in both races for which he holds entries, the Coral Cup (40/1 NRNB) and the M Pipe (33/1 NRNB) both to 5 places. I presume the latter race is the target as he's as short as 12/1 NRNB for it (Skybet).

This forum was all over DK as a bumper horse and many expected it to take high rank in due course among the novice hurdlers. Terms like "the real deal" were used by people who watch bumpers much more closely than I do.

He bombed at Aintree in his bumper year and lost at 1/2f on his reappearance last season before losing to Angel's Breath who went on to be one of the favourites for the Supreme. Another 427-day absence meant he didn't reappear until just less than a fortnight ago when he had the race at his mercy when sprawling out of it at the last. He needed that run to get a good enough mark to make the cut for next week and I imagine they'll be happy with 139. I also imagine they will have a line to him with Pic D'Orhy for the same owners.

It's a bit speculative, obviously, but why are Sky so short? For me that makes Danny Kirwan quite an attractive proposition although perhaps not as attractive as Dervla at her pouting best in Ballykissangel.
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In the words of a wise man... "That has ******* no chance..."
 
Just out of curiosity, Slim, why, do you imagine, DK is so short with the NRNB bookies?

12/1 Sky
14/1 BV
16/1 Lad, 888, Uni, Coral, Bfred

yet 33/1 NRNB with Betfair and PP.

It looks to me like they're just slow to react and will probably correct it soon.

I was telling the brother about it a moment ago. He had last season's Timeform Horses to Follow book from last season in which they described him as a very exciting prospect.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Just out of curiosity, Slim, why, do you imagine, DK is so short with the NRNB bookies?

12/1 Sky
14/1 BV
16/1 Lad, 888, Uni, Coral, Bfred

yet 33/1 NRNB with Betfair and PP.

It looks to me like they're just slow to react and will probably correct it soon.

I was telling the brother about it a moment ago. He had last season's Timeform Horses to Follow book from last season in which they described him as a very exciting prospect.
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Just looks like lazy market management. I think he would be at least 25/1 for the Martin Pipe on the day. Two or three of these are going to be sub 5/1 on the day. It will take some winning. The biggest question is who will Jonjo O'Neill Jr ride as that will be a big edge in the race.

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I've as good as written off my 40/1 Thomas Darby for the Champion Hurdle as it looks a non-runner so have dipped another toe in the water this morning.

I read through Kevin Blake's ATR blog in which he selects Darver Star at 16/1 and liked his reasoning so decided to check through a few things for myself.

Darver Star has gone up to 152 and Blake thinks he's probably better than that. Assuming he's as much as, say, 7lbs better than that, that would make him a 159 horse, right?

There already is a 159 horse in the field sitting at 33/1: Cornerstone Lad.

Apologies if anyone else has already tipped him on this thread or elsewhere but I'm not aware of it. If so, congrats on getting in so early.

Cornerstone Lad wasn't on the radar until he took advantage of what looked an over-confident ride by Geraghty on Buveur D'Air in the Fighting Fifth. It tuned out the ex-champ was injured during the race but CL was still 4lbs better than the 154-rated Silver Streak whom some see as a lively outsider.

I was happy to write the race off as a fluke. CL was ignored out in front and got his own way. I wasn't sure he could reproduce the form.

However, next time out he did, in the Haydock trial race in which, at the weights, he emerges superior to the 154-rated Ballyandy (currently 20/1) and one-time favourite for next week, the juvenile champion Pentland Hills (9/2), by 5lbs and 2lbs respectively.

If he were trained by a bigger stable he wouldn't be 33/1, I don't think, and if he goes close next week, I imagine the pundits will be saying stuff like 'the form was there' 'why didn't we see that', etc.

I do expect something to beat it up the hill but I'm not sure what and if nothing emerges, who knows?
 
I have to put this on in here specifically for Desert Orchid because he'll kick himself if he's not on!

Maurice, Chesterfield is available at 66/1 with Bet 365 for the County Hurdle. He probably won't win, but I know you'll back him, and I know why. :lol:
 
Maruco said:
I have to put this on in here specifically for Desert Orchid because he'll kick himself if he's not on!

Maurice, Chesterfield is available at 66/1 with Bet 365 for the County Hurdle. He probably won't win, but I know you'll back him, and I know why. :lol:
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Good man, Maruco :lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've also taken 40/1 NRNB Any Time Will Do for the Skeltons in the Pertemps Final.

It's part sickness insurance, part value stab.

I backed this one earlier in the year when I felt it was ridden very negatively in a race it could have won. Having seen what the Skeltons did to get Ch'tibello into the County off a winning mark, I wouldn't put anything past them and if this one turns up on the day it's unlikely to be anywhere near 40s.
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Still 40s and still can't see it going off anywhere near that price.

But I've taken another stab at the race anyway with Unowhatimeanharry at a boosted 35/1 NRNB.

I can't help sympathising with him. We're both ageing and past our best but on our day...

Once odds-on fav for the Stayers' Hurdle when rated 167 it seems his wins in the last two Punchestown Stayers' championship races have been ignored. Latterly they've abandoned the successful keep-him-interested tactics and ridden him patiently, especially last time out in his only attempt at qualifying for this race.

Down to 150, would it really surprise anyone if this has been his target for a long time? Not me. There will be worse 33/1 shots next week.
 
For all that he's a Kelso specialist, I think Big River (33/1 Hills) merits a bit of attention in the Ultima.

He was a fast-finishing fourth in this race last year, after losing his pitch jumping the water going down the back, and looking like he was going to tail-off, before running on strongly from 3-out to be beaten 6.5L - in ground conditions much the same as we can expect next week. He gets in here off only a lb higher, and at No.28 in the list, he has a better-than-decent chance off getting in. He will carry 10-8 if Vinndication runs.

I'm inclined to forgive his poor run at the track FTO this season, as it was his first outing since coming back from wind surgery. He was going well when brought-down next time (in a first-time tie), and won a 3m handicap back at Kelso (tie off this time), under 11-10, in mid-January.

Lucinda Russell might be at the less fashionable end of the racing spectrum, and though she's no stranger to Festival success, her horses always seem to be a little bit under-bet as a result.

Clearly, you need to forgive a few things in Big River's back-catalogue, but I think he is one that will be staying-on stoutly, when many of the others are starting to pack it in.
 
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I watched the replay of last year's race the other day, GH, and this one caught my eye too.

Definitely on my radar having backed it in last year's race.
 
She been working towards the race all year, and given the trend of winners and placers coming back and running well, he has to be an each way bet.
 
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