The Long Shot Thread

I got an email this morning suggesting Swift Approval may have been a wee bit unlucky. I've seen the race twice and don't think any interference was enough to change the result. Anyone got any opinions?

Anyway, I hope to have one or two longshots today which I'll post later.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I got an email this morning suggesting Swift Approval may have been a wee bit unlucky. I've seen the race twice and don't think any interference was enough to change the result. Anyone got any opinions?

Anyway, I hope to have one or two longshots today which I'll post later.
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i think if he’d have got the rail before the winner when there was a gap he’d have won, Murphy let winner over, maybe didn’t want to be in front too soon.
 
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I have two for the 5.15 at Epsom, one of my favourite early-season handicaps.

Twin Star ew 20/1 (5 pl Sky) - this is my main fancy in the race. He looks to have been brought along steadily this season, presumably with something big in mind given that he seemed on a nice curve last year. He’ll almost certainly need to go up at least 2lbs to make the cut in any of the big Ascot handicaps so making sure with a win here would also bring a lovely prize in case his new mark costs him the win at Ascot.

I'm waiting for my request to be matched for the other one but it will be more than 20/1.

Edit - it's now been matched...

Barwick ew 50/1 (5 pl with PP) - Soldier In Action won it last year off 99 but was much better again later in the season, taking his mark up to 110, so he could still be prominent following his drop in the ratings. Eddystone Rock was second off 97 and also later improved at York to win off the same mark. Barwick was just over four lengths behind the winner in seventh off 89 so he is handicapped to win off 4lbs lower. He's been off on jollies abroad for a year but I just suspect this has been a long-term aim. Obviously he may just be a social runner but at the prices I'm happy to pay to find out. I took much longer at Betfair and place-only with one of the bookies.
 
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I'm going to add The Pentagon 50/1 (ew) to the thread. If I was prepared to back him at 14/1 (and he was as low as 7s at one stage) then I have to back him at the current odds.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm going to add The Pentagon 50/1 (ew) to the thread. If I was prepared to back him at 14/1 (and he was as low as 7s at one stage) then I have to back him at the current odds.
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I fear he'll be sent off like Bye Bye Baby was yesterday. Which would harm his chances, but would mean he trades much shorter IR.
 
Running total

W -11
P -3.25
Total -14.25

Up against it after a few duff picks so held back a few days. Like the look of today so will re-enter the fray.

Lingfield 5.40 - Muthraab Aldaar 25/1 Sportingbet (who uses them). 22/1 365 and 20s generally. 1/5 1-3

I'm going to chance Jim Boyle's inmate in this low grade handicap for amateur riders. I'm working on the basis that Attain is on a mark close to his ceiling, albeit with the help of the top amateur.

This one was running well until his run at Yarmouth last time. I'm putting a line through that and think that 59 is workable should he run up to it.

Fully aware I'm taking a risk now with the dead 8 and this will lose some of its appeal with another defector but I'll give it a go.


4.00 Musselburgh- Crazy Tornado -25/1 general 1/4 3 places

I think the market has dismissed this one to an extent. Drawn wide but that won't be an issue for this hold up performer, who tends to run some decent races at the track.

I'm going to assume that Hamilton didn't really play into his strengths last time. He had run twice before at that track and wasn't really troubling the judge on either occasion.

He ran well on his seasonal comeback off 68 only beaten 4L. He has form over this 9f trip, one such line being a close 2nd to the re-opposing Zeshov. Crazy Tornado received 11lbs that day and gets 12 today taking into account Rowan Scott's claim. I think these two could well be in the mix-up and think the Dalgleish's charge rates the value.

Dessie - good luck with yours. Had a look at that race and did like Twin Star.
 
I dont know if the going has something to do with it but Holiday magic has drifted out to 40/1 in the 550E.
I was happy with 16s now i dont know what to think.
Mick easterby/hayley turner.finished 6th last yeat under an uninspiring ride ,slow away and is 9lb lower this year.

Ive done him in the extra place market at 16s 7 places to cover my bets.
Could be a costly day.
 
7.50 Stratford
Strumble Head now 33/1 with Bet365 but no bigger than 16/1 elsewhere. Was tempted to have a dabble at 16s but 33s will do nicely

Edit. Clearly a rick by Bet365 who now go 22s

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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I have a few today:

Nwm 2.35 - Solar Flair ew 20/1 - I have him top-rated and he's jt-top on RPRs. Looks over-priced at 20/1 as I don't think the favourite Eastern Impact's chance is significantly, if at all, better.

Nwm 3.40 - Soldier In Action ew 20/1 - needs to carry some sickness insurance now. He WILL win a race at some point; it’s just a matter of being on him when he does, and I’m sure the higher the value of the race the more likely it is that he’ll be trying. Mitchell is the only jockey with a 100% record for Johnston this season but he’s only had the one ride.

Nwm 5.25 - Majeed ew 33/1 - (I dived in early at 22/1 :lol:) Majeed was arguably unlucky not to win last year’s Wolferton off 100 but that may have bottomed him for the season, maybe for good. He was joint bottom weight that day so will need to go up the ratings to make the cut pretty much for any handicap this year. Jockey bookings suggest stablemate Nonios is preferred, though.

Nwm 5.25 - Proposed ew 66/1 - improved in the Middle-East after leaving Richard Hannon but it’s hard to enthuse about his chances here based on his form this season. However, he’s come down 11lbs and at 66/1 if all eight run he’s probably seriously over-priced.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I have a few today:

Nwm 2.35 - Solar Flair ew 20/1 - I have him top-rated and he's jt-top on RPRs. Looks over-priced at 20/1 as I don't think the favourite Eastern Impact's chance is significantly, if at all, better.

Nwm 3.40 - Soldier In Action ew 20/1 - needs to carry some sickness insurance now. He WILL win a race at some point; it’s just a matter of being on him when he does, and I’m sure the higher the value of the race the more likely it is that he’ll be trying. Mitchell is the only jockey with a 100% record for Johnston this season but he’s only had the one ride.

Nwm 5.25 - Majeed ew 33/1 - (I dived in early at 22/1 :lol:) Majeed was arguably unlucky not to win last year’s Wolferton off 100 but that may have bottomed him for the season, maybe for good. He was joint bottom weight that day so will need to go up the ratings to make the cut pretty much for any handicap this year. Jockey bookings suggest stablemate Nonios is preferred, though.

Nwm 5.25 - Proposed ew 66/1 - improved in the Middle-East after leaving Richard Hannon but it’s hard to enthuse about his chances here based on his form this season. However, he’s come down 11lbs and at 66/1 if all eight run he’s probably seriously over-priced.
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Good luck. I will go for Soldiers Minute each way in the 3:05
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Nwm 5.25 - Majeed ew 33/1 - (I dived in early at 22/1 :lol:) Majeed was arguably unlucky not to win last year’s Wolferton off 100 but that may have bottomed him for the season, maybe for good. He was joint bottom weight that day so will need to go up the ratings to make the cut pretty much for any handicap this year. Jockey bookings suggest stablemate Nonios is preferred, though.

Nwm 5.25 - Proposed ew 66/1 - improved in the Middle-East after leaving Richard Hannon but it’s hard to enthuse about his chances here based on his form this season. However, he’s come down 11lbs and at 66/1 if all eight run he’s probably seriously over-priced.
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FFS, second and third!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gf_IH3rj0hY

Looks like the non-runner has cost me a place with the 66/1 shot.
 
Copied, pasted and edited from the RA thread:

40/1 Accidental Agent EW NRNB for the Queen Anne.

Following Paul Kealy in, to be honest, but we think along similar lines for big races and by the time I'd ended up studying the race I'd probably end up on the same one but missing out on the price.
 
York 3.35 Savalas ew 20/1 - I may be taking a bit of a liberty with my rating for Savalas but it’s the kind of interpretation which has given me an edge in some races in the past. I took 14/1 on Thursday in anticipation of a contraction but it was available at 16/1 last night and 25/1 in a place this morning and longer on the exchange so the market weakness is a concern. The big figure derives from its race last time out in a non-handicap over five at Hamilton in which he short-headed Lake Volta, who put up a superb time two runs later in a Listed race in which he hammered rivals rated 8lbs and 10lbs higher, possibly having bounced in between, with Bengali Boys in third and summer daylight back to the fourth. He’s 6lbs better off with Bengali Boys here. I suspect he’s been kept off the track for the last six weeks to preserve his mark. Of course, it may simply be that the Hamilton race was the only true one on a card of slow times but I'm prepared to pay to find out.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Nwm 5.25 - Proposed ew 66/1 - improved in the Middle-East after leaving Richard Hannon but it’s hard to enthuse about his chances here based on his form this season. However, he’s come down 11lbs and at 66/1 if all eight run he’s probably seriously over-priced.
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Hit the bar with this one last week - third on the day but the non-runner took the field down to seven so I missed out on the return. Hoping for better luck today with this one:

York 2.25 - Misty Birnam ew 66/1 4 pl with some bookies. Misty Birnam has been dropped 7lbs for one run this season and 19lbs in total since he came up from South Africa where he was placed in Group races as a juvenile. I don’t find it difficult to forgive good two-year-olds a poor second season, plus this fellow was seriously disadvantaged trying to race here as a three-year-old having been born in September in the southern hemisphere. If he responds as kindly to Josie Gordon’s handling as so many do, he could be a ridiculous price as the rank outsider.
 
By the way, I meant to ask last week if the morning show's "Shark's Shout" (Jason Weaver's longshot) was inspired by this thread?
 
Desert Orchid said:
York 3.35 Savalas ew 20/1 -
...

I took 14/1 on Thursday in anticipation of a contraction but it was available at 16/1 last night and 25/1 in a place this morning and longer on the exchange so the market weakness is a concern.
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Now generally 25/1 and over 50 at Betfair. Looks like it's just there to make up the numbers. I wouldn't put it past the trainer to be keeping it for the Ayr Gold Cup.
 
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