The Long Shot Thread

Leo 6.35 Rhododendron 20/1 (and better) - This looks like another Roaring Lion-Saxon Warrior match but I’m going to have a wee stab at Rhododendron who is maybe overpriced at 20/1 or better. She's joint second-top on both ORs and RPRs (adjusted) so should probably be a lot closer to Saxon Warrior in the betting.
 
And there's more...

I've taken some sickness insurance on The Pentagon (25/1). His 2yo form has been franked all over the shop and they've maybe just been messing about with him ahead of a late-season international campaign. But I stress that it is sickness insurance because I backed him ante-post for the Derby.

Leo 3.50 - Medalla De Oro 20/1 - my saver in the race. Hacked up last time for an amateur so maybe the horse goes well for an inexperienced rider and his claimer today has pretty fair stats so he’s worth a punt as he wasn't hit too hard for that win. He might just be on a steep curve now.

Leo 7.10 - Reckless Endeavour 40/1 - I think Outsider has also latched on to this one so I'm in good company. Again, it's a small-stakes saver as I have backed three non-qualifiers in the race but his early season AW form would give him a serious chance and the booking of O'Donoghue catches the eye.

I'll be disappointed if I don't get my head in front with these longshots today.
 
I'll chip in with Savalas 22/1 for the Portland, angles are : handles all surfaces, cheekpieces on first time, stable recently rattling in big price winners & only runner out this weekend

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Tiny Clanger said:
I'll chip in with Savalas 22/1 for the Portland, angles are : handles all surfaces, cheekpieces on first time, stable recently rattling in big price winners & only runner out this weekend
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Yes. On my radar too. I'd suggest taking very seriously anything the stable runs in the Ayr Gold Cup next week. I thought Tommy Taylor looked plotted up for it but he needed to win last week (and maybe should have) but I don't think he'll make it now so whatever else they have in it has to have a shout.
 
Yep the Ayr GC he's a few declared, Major Jumbo, who I thought would have run today fits nicely as a tough battler barging through type. Prob go for a Goldie runner tho - quiet in between then popping up nicely in big handicaps

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DUKE OF FIRENZE 150D 33/1 ran a good race in the dash at epsom and is now 13lb lower? If it shows its old sparkle it must have a chance.i remember putting him up for a big race once and it drifted out to 66/1 and ran a cracker for 5th.

16/1 9 places today for insurance.fingers crossed.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'll be disappointed if I don't get my head in front with these longshots today.
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Looks like I'm heading for a disappointing day...

Lancelot Du Lac was clearly on the wrong side and Winston gave up at halfway. If he turns up at Ayr I'll probably get suck(er)ed in again.

Abel Handy may be on the way back but still has a way to go.

Nelson ran better than a 100/1 shot, not too far off the frame.

Medalla De Oro probably did too much out in front and might be of interest next time in a lesser race.

I won't see the remaining races so I'll need to check the various replay websites later tonight or tomorrow.
 
5.15 Ffos Las

The Bear Can Fly 40s (Sportsbook and PP), 33s general

Down to 10 runners but still a nice each way angle here. Ground coming right at Ffos Las and should hopefully be soft by race time. PLY taking 7 off can only help.
 
DanB88 said:
5.15 Ffos Las

The Bear Can Fly 40s (Sportsbook and PP), 33s general

Down to 10 runners but still a nice each way angle here. Ground coming right at Ffos Las and should hopefully be soft by race time. PLY taking 7 off can only help.
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Well the weather gods did their thing but someone forgot to tell the horse.

Well backed into an SP of 9/1 but didn't get home. If that ground is what the filly needs then 1m looks a better option (being by Pastoral Pursuits).
 
3.10 Brighton - Towelrads Boy - 25s general

I don't think this is without a chance today. Was held up at Kempton last time and presumably didn't stay the trip but ran at Leicester in June over 6 like he needed further.

I'm hoping over this 7f they can go a bit quick up front and this one can pick up the pieces as the come back up the stiff finish.
 
GL Dan.

Brighton 4.10 King Crimson 33/1 - probably three times his true odds because he's run badly here the last couple of times he's visited but he does have winning form on the track.
 
DanB88 said:
3.10 Brighton - Towelrads Boy - 25s general

I don't think this is without a chance today. Was held up at Kempton last time and presumably didn't stay the trip but ran at Leicester in June over 6 like he needed further.

I'm hoping over this 7f they can go a bit quick up front and this one can pick up the pieces as the come back up the stiff finish.
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Held up. Keen. Headway 2 out. Stayed on well final furlong without reaching leaders.

Marvellous.
 
5.00 Hexham - Sendiym - 50/1 - PP and Sportsbook. 33s and 28s elsewhere

I'll chance this old boy 3rd run back off a break. Done his winning over slightly shorter but 50s feels like value in this field. 3rd run back from a break so hopefully no fitness worries.
 
5.10 Redcar - Siyahamba - 20s

This tends to get behind early but if he can finish like he did at Beverley on his penultimate run he looks a good candidate for the frame at least.
 
Struggling to pick my nose here with these longshots at the moment.

I'll try one more today.

8:30 Kempton- Hereyouare- 20/1 BetVictor

This son of Thewayyouare has each way chances in this field as far as I'm concerned. Ran ok last time at Chepstow but likely to be better suited to the polytrack.

With only 5 career starts and now down to a rating of 56 I assume there's a reason Morris is hanging back for the last, when he could have taken a dart and got on the road home.

You look around the field, Duration looks the obvious one with the form just being franked by Dubai Frame. The rest however seem a much of a muchness.
 
Today's longshots are all in the Ayr Gold Cup.

Tommy Taylor 20/1 - this is my main bet in the race. He's been on my radar for it since midsummer, possibly the spring, and he's 10lbs lower than then. Connections won it with Brando when went on to be competitive at G1 level. He might be the next one.

Naadirr 40/1 - runs for the same trainer and is harder to figure. Handicapped to just about win on old form and might not just be a social runner for enthusiastic connections.

Brian The Snail 40/1 - carries sickness insurance to go with the wealth-health warning as I've been backing him. Seriously disappointing again this season but he still turns up in all the big ones for Godolphin. Could he be a year-long plot?

Kimberella 33/1 - lobbed in on his very best form but probably badly drawn.
 
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SALT WHISTLE BAY- AYR 2.00
Been in the tracker since swatting aside Rip Orff off level weights with ease in early May on soft ground, subsequent runs on quick ground predictably not as good but the striking nature of that win in May really stood out so the 20/1 with B365 is worth a go.
 
From my preview of the Silver Cambs:

Three-year-olds have a good record in this race, probably due to being steep curve horses, and two recent such winners have gone on to much better things. Addeybb is touching G1 class and GM Hopkins has been a regular under big weights in the big handicaps in the last couple of seasons. For that reason as well as because I have him as a +p horse, Jazeel is on the short-list.

Four year-olds have a poor record with only four managing a place in the last ten seasons. I’m not a believer in stats and no doubt a 4yo will win this one day if not this year but it does make you wonder. 5yos fare a little better with two winners but from many more runners. The other two winners in the last ten years have been older than five, probably down to being sleepers dropping back down the weights, with the other two age groups caught somewhere in the handicapper’s grip. However, there are two four-year-olds who might not be. Keyser Soze threatened to land a big prize earlier this season and has been given a quiet time of it lately while bottom-weight Little Jo is definitely on a curve that might be quite steep. He’s officially 6lbs well in so it’s no surprise to see him at the head of the betting. Both have to be on the short-list too.

The others for consideration are the two sleepers at the top of the figures on their old form, My Target and Swift Emperor, and Nicholas T. My Target has come down no fewer than 24lbs in the last 18 months and has only run twice on turf in that time, being tailed off (100/1) in last year’s Hunt Cup and a decent runner-up last time. He’s actually been dropped a pound for finishing second that day so the handicapper clearly doesn’t rate the race. I think he’s worth fun money at decent odds.

The handicapper hasn’t yet split Swift Emperor’s ratings between turf and all-weather despite the horse looking better on synthetics, certainly this season, but his ratings have been picking up lately on turf and it may be that he is just starting to come into form this autumn. His overall profile suggests he’s maybe a spring & autumn type. Again, I won’t miss a little fun money at long odds.

Jim Goldie brought Karaka Jack down from up here in the central belt to win this race in 2015 and he is more than capable of pulling off a job. At the longest odds of the lot and a +p type Nicholas T gets the vote as the main bet, each-way of course.

I’m happy to let Little Jo win unbacked, likewise Jazeel and Keyser Soze.

Bets

5.15½ pt ew Nicholas T 33/1; ¼ pt win My Target 25/1; ¼ pt win Swift Emperor 25/1

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Now you know why I tend to back several in these big races. Jazeel started off last night as my main bet in the race. By midnight I had changed my mind more often than a wean at the pik'n'mix. I hope to fvck somebody backed it.
 
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Chuffed for you, simmo! I can honestly take some solace from that.

Hope you weren't alone.:cool:

The money isn't that important to me. I get more of a kick out of being on the right track.

Unless, of course, I get a right return!!
 
Market Rasen 2.50 Waltz Darling 33/1 could be very well handicapped if anything left in the tank? Seemed to love the course and going last year
 
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