The Long Shot Thread

Also in the Wokingham, Fighting Irish 80/1 6 pl - is now 7lbs lower than when beaten less than three lengths in last year's Commonwealth Cup for which he was raised to 105 but he's done nothing since. I wouldn't be surprised if this has been the plan ever since but it's a bet with its obvious risks.

Sir Maximilian 66/1 - age is maybe an issue now but his win on his only run this season reads quite well, suggesting he's on the way back but he was rated 112 three seasons back so if he's anywhere near that level he shouldn't be that kind of price.

Corinthia Knight 66/1 - has raced exclusively on the AW this season, his OR peaking at 109 so his mark here of 100 gives him a squeak if he can translate his form to turf.
 
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I've done NO NONSENSE 305 80/1 3 places 66/1 4 places and Francesca cumani's went and tipped it this morning.

I've also done PROJECTION 40/1 in the 4.20 wasnt beaten far last year,and was 3rd in the wokingham in 2017.
 
Ascot 4.20 - Tip Two Win 100/1 4pl - second in last year's Guineas for which he went up to 117. Deserves to be 100s on what he's shown since but interesting that they're choosing to come here first time up this season. That 117 would put him joint third-top on ORs and he's by Dark Angel so maybe the return to sprinting won't be a negative after all.
 
Ayr 5.05 - My Reward 25/1 4pl - sickness insurance really since I've put him up more than once and he will pop up one day!
 
Ascot 2.30 - Zmile 100/1 4pl - I just happened to notice the name in a recent gallop report with a very positive mention. I have no idea about the horse but sweetie money at the price will give me an interest. It cold win and still not cover my outlay on the day!
 
Ascot 5.35 - Cayirli 66/1, Jukebox Jive 80/1

From my preview:

Of the ones with [worthwhile] ratings, they’re all single figure prices except Jukebox Jive and Cayirli who are far too big at 33/1 and 25/1 respectively.
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If I thought those prices were too big...
 
Have to give a little mention to Red Allure in the 5.00 Chepstow, did put it up on Andys thread the other day when horse missed the break at Carlisle. Give this filly a chance on her 1st outing this season at Doncaster when was close up with the pace to about 1 1/2fs out when completely knocked out of her stride by a horse on her left banging into her sending her sideways. Also ran a cracking race at Redcar last season when only just getting caught inside the final furlong by Bielsa. Think this drop to 5fs should suit her in this class 6. Think has a decent draw in 10 and would expect Bluella who shot out of the stalls at Catterick (to lead very fast starter Pearl Noir) and led into the final furlong, to lead again and hopefully tow her into the final furlong. 40/1 still available with 365, but everyone else is about 20/1.
 
Anyone fancy posting up a 100/1 certainty? Just found out the Mrs is pregnant and we are expecting twins. No more betting and fun for me, can’t guarantee a wedge in this game.
 
No luck lately.

Although I like the look of Bobby Jean in Naas's 8:30pm tomorrow night, now on a career low mark. This has also won previously on near identical marks. 16/1 with Bet 365 is a decent price.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Also in the Wokingham, Fighting Irish 80/1 6 pl - is now 7lbs lower than when beaten less than three lengths in last year's Commonwealth Cup for which he was raised to 105 but he's done nothing since. I wouldn't be surprised if this has been the plan ever since but it's a bet with its obvious risks.

Sir Maximilian 66/1 - age is maybe an issue now but his win on his only run this season reads quite well, suggesting he's on the way back but he was rated 112 three seasons back so if he's anywhere near that level he shouldn't be that kind of price.
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I'm working through the form for this race and see that Fighting Irish was fourth on his side. I've watched the race two or three times and didn't notice.

The form comments suggest Sir Maximilian is better than his finishing position:

nt clr run well over 1f out: nt clr run ag'n and switchd rt fnl 150yds: gng on at fin
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I also see the Weekender's columnist Alistair Jones says:

King Of Comedy should have won the St James's Palace by a minute
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Another one that got away.

I admit, I'm looking for scraps of comfort in a horrible day's punting...
 
First up for Saturday:

Newcastle 3.35 - Aircraft Carrier 33/1 5pl - if this one goes longer in the morning, as I suspect it might, I'll probably go in again but I'm on at the moment to smallish stakes just in case a gamble develops. I'm probably reading 'way too much into this one but earlier in the year at Wolverhampton (Tapeta) in a Good Friday qualifier he beat a Godolphin horse rated 8lbs higher on disadvantageous wfa terms, the pair well clear of the Final winner Watersmeet. He went up to today's rating for that but I wonder if he's been saved for this. I'm also curious that they've engaged a Godolphin jockey for him. Could there be an agreement in place whereby Godolphin have already bought the horse but are allowing him to run for his previous owner? Like I say, I'm probably reading far too much into it but I like a good conspiracy theory and he'd never be 33/1 if he were running in the all-blue...

Edit - he's also visored for the first time.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
First up for Saturday:

Newcastle 3.35 - Aircraft Carrier 33/1 5pl - if this one goes longer in the morning, as I suspect it might, I'll probably go in again but I'm on at the moment to smallish stakes just in case a gamble develops. I'm probably reading 'way too much into this one but earlier in the year at Wolverhampton (Tapeta) in a Good Friday qualifier he beat a Godolphin horse rated 8lbs higher on disadvantageous wfa terms, the pair well clear of the Final winner Watersmeet. He went up to today's rating for that but I wonder if he's been saved for this. I'm also curious that they've engaged a Godolphin jockey for him. Could there be an agreement in place whereby Godolphin have already bought the horse but are allowing him to run for his previous owner? Like I say, I'm probably reading far too much into it but I like a good conspiracy theory and he'd never be 33/1 if he were running in the all-blue...

Edit - he's also visored for the first time.
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I like a good conspiracy theory.
 
In the northumberland plate I've had to do COSMELLI 33/1
Two years ago I put him in my alerts after finishing 8th in this race at 100/1 btn 3L and didnt get the best of runs.
I assume they then decided to get his rating down and they did to the extent they won a race at southwell and got put up to 4lb below his mark in this race in 2017 but unfortunately he didnt get in and had to run in the vase instead.skybet kindly went 66/1 and I helped myself to a bit of that.since then hes been disappointing but I'm hoping this race will bring him to life.
Last year he carried more weight than WITHOLD did in the plate and did a faster time and if withold had run cosmelli would have been 11lb better in.skybet are 25/1 6 places and he must have a chance I think.hes won me a fair bit of money so doesnt owe me a cent.

Another I've done is FEARSOME 50/1 nick littmoden/g Lee only run over 12f until they stepped him up to 2m in two really good races and so is unexposed really at this trip.
 
Cosmelli is a must-bet. He's weighted to win an average renewal but I fear something will improve past him. If I could get 8/1 place-only (4pl) I'd settle for that as a saver.

I've gone in again on Aircraft Carrier at 50/1, 6 places.
 
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In the consolation race I've taken Seamour 20/1 4 pl. He's now seriously well handicapped and in the past has been a gamble in the big one, more than once if memory serves. He can go very well after a break but they appeared to have 'made sure' he's ready by giving him an airing about 10 weeks ago.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the consolation race I've taken Seamour 20/1 4 pl. He's now seriously well handicapped and in the past has been a gamble in the big one, more than once if memory serves. He can go very well after a break but they appeared to have 'made sure' he's ready by giving him an airing about 10 weeks ago.
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Decent enough run for 4th. I got mildly excited 3 out.
 
Just caught up on the racing.

Places for Seamour and Cosmelli. I suppose expecting a win was maybe too much.

I thought Aircraft Carrier was going to do me a serious turn for a few moments when he threw down his challenge but maybe he didn't stay.

I want to see the Plate again. On first viewing, I couldn't help but think quite a few of them were there to preserve marks, running well enough but not mounting a serious challenge.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've had another look at the Derby and really can't make a strong enough case to favour any one of the principals over the other. I noticed a Makhtoum animal chasing home Broome so maybe Madhmoun will be very dangerous, assuming he's much better, but I have reservations about his stamina. In the same race, I thought Sovereign wasn't given much of a hard time in third and is as likely to improve for the step up in trip as anything else. Sometimes these Coolmore rags seriously outrun their odds so I've taken a small interest in him. It's a sad day when the only bets I can find in the race are longshots (Humanitarian, Line Of Duty and Sovereign) just for the sake of an interest. So, to add to Humanitarian:

Sovereign 100/1
Line Of Duty 33/1
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Story of my life.
 
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