The Oaks 2012

This is true also. I have a look in the shop later before the off. Heffernan will be keen to promote her in the pecking order if he's keeping the ride.

She's a Galileo/Green Desert cross... quite interesting. Nice speed influences to marry to her stamina.
 
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Just a thought but has Aloof the least questions to answer. Race fit - highest rated - improving at a rate of knots - stable in form - 9/1.... It is a seriously difficult race to have a bet on with any certainty.
 
EC1 said:
to say how much the 1000g was doubted as good form its been franked today..11l 4th wins G3 comfy
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The Fugue ran a much better race today than in the Guineas, where a horse ran into the back of her in the early stages. I'd be cautious in using today's race to frank the Guineas form. The Fugue is much better than her Guineas form.
 
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Apparently Was was forward this season but needed stitches to her knee after a shoe came off her work companion and hit her. In the circumstances I wouldn't be too put off as she will be over that and ready to run. Perhaps short of peak fitness though.
 
SteveM said:
The Fugue ran a much better race today than in the Guineas, where a horse ran into the back of her in the early stages. I'd be cautious in using today's race to frank the Guineas form. The Fugue is much better than her Guineas form.
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she still franked it..and in a better race in your opinion

if i beat someone into 4th in a 100 metre race and nto they won an olympic gold i think that makes beating him an achievement

i'd want to know what i were doing not running in the olympic final like:lol:
 
EC1 said:
she still franked it..and in a better race in your opinion

if i beat someone into 4th in a 100 metre race and nto they won an olympic gold i think that makes beating him an achievement

i'd want to know what i were doing not running in the olympic final like:lol:
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I'm not saying today's race was a better race (although it was a much better personal performance from Gosden's filly), but for a list of reasons many ran well below what they are capable of in the 1,000 Guineas.

Yes it has franked the form on the face of it if you choose to say so. But there is more going on here than the face of it.
 
The market indeed told the story for Was. Opened 12/5 dropping to 7/2 before the off. Nevertheless, she ran a pleasing race staying on into third spot. She'd have to come on for this to take part in the Oaks.
 
I think the only Oaks pointer to arise from the Blue Wind was for Kissed who had Aaraas and Cleofila well behind her in the Salsabil last time. Today's race gave that race some sort of solidity but I'm not sure we learnt a great deal else.
 
Zenyatta said:
I think the only Oaks pointer to arise from the Blue Wind was for Kissed who had Aaraas and Cleofila well behind her in the Salsabil last time. Today's race gave that race some sort of solidity but I'm not sure we learnt a great deal else.
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Agreed,

The Blue Wind fillies are going to be aiming for Black type wins throughout the season, I expect their no more than Listed - Group 3 sorts who will struggle at anything higher than that, but having said that they are extremely attractable breeding propositions rather than elite racehorses and still have a big part to say in the future of the sport.
 
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EC1 said:
no..but the point i am making is that had the fugue bombed today i can guarantee someone would have said it meant the 1000 form was no good because of it...works both ways imo
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The Fugue's run today cannot be taken any other way than a huge endorsement of the Guineas form. It will be very interesting to see what price the doubters will be putting up for Homecoming in the Irish Guineas. She could run 5 or 6lbs below her Newmarket run and still hack up.....
 
EC1 said:
no..but the point i am making is that had the fugue bombed today i can guarantee someone would have said it meant the 1000 form was no good because of it...works both ways imo
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I'd have been on within seconds of her being ran over if I knew she was 6th in the 1000. The coverage stopped after the 5th finally crossed the line.
 
reet hard said:
So long as we bear in mind that today's race was 2.5f further, on more suitable ground, and she wasn't struck into? :)
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if Fencing wins today i'll bet people say it boosts Camelots guineas

i know it was a different race..but as said..none of that would have mattered had fugue lost..it would have been deemed a negative for the guineas

personally i don't always understand how form can be boosted as two races take place on different days, horse fitness levels, different conditions.

i say it though..ooh thats boosted that..but when you think about it..boosting form doesn't really exist in very accurate measures..because no two races are ever the same.
 
5/2 Maybe
3/1 The Fugue
6/1 Vow
13/2 Kissed
10/1 Kailani
16/1 Colima
18/1 Shirocco Star
25/1 Coquet

40s Bar


All the talk is of the Derby but for me the fillies race is the more exciting contest this year. If Maybe was trained by anyone else she'd surely be 7s+ but that doesn't necessarily mean she's worth taking on. I've lost a fair amount of money over the last few years opposing poor value AOB horses.
 
Euronymous said:
5/2 Maybe
3/1 The Fugue
6/1 Vow
13/2 Kissed
10/1 Kailani
16/1 Colima
18/1 Shirocco Star
25/1 Coquet

40s Bar


All the talk is of the Derby but for me the fillies race is the more exciting contest this year. If Maybe was trained by anyone else she'd surely be 7s+ but that doesn't necessarily mean she's worth taking on.
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I could not disagree more. Best 2yo form and the 1000 Guineas form should be on the back of a cigarette box. She was heavily supported for the race before and after the Guineas. She is priced on weight of support rather than who trains her. Its always very important to differentiate between the two.

.
 
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The Fugue looked a potential Oaks filly at Newmarket last autumn. Nothing she's done subsequently makes me think any different.

I am doubtful of Maybe's stamina, and see it as a negative for Kissed's chance that Maybe seems so strong in the market against her. Really not convinced by the form of Vow's trial. I still think the 3's is a big price on The Fugue.
 
davidjohnson said:
The Fugue looked a potential Oaks filly at Newmarket last autumn. Nothing she's done subsequently makes me think any different.

I am doubtful of Maybe's stamina, and see it as a negative for Kissed's chance that Maybe seems so strong in the market against her. Really not convinced by the form of Vow's trial. I still think the 3's is a big price on The Fugue.
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Do you rate Twirl? Her form does nothing for me.
 
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