The Road to the 2012 2000 Guineas

Are not the so called unexposed types also pretty much to the fore in the betting as well? Can't remember if it was you who thought Tales of Grimm might be a runner but surely that one has slim to no chance pardon the pun. Which "unexposed" ones with some sort of chance at a price are out there?
 
Tales Of Grimm may not take part due to them running out of time to get a run into him (withrawn from Greenham due to going). This does not detract from my hopes for him later on in the season. At this stage he is the other one I've backed (at 25/1). I have two or three others to choose from and have time yet before committing to any of these (there is still a handful at double-digits that I haven't yet totally ruled out). It could also be that I'll leave things as they stand if I see no value in going in again.
 
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I have a few quid on Trumpet Major ew at 12s with Ladbrokes and have no interest in backing anything else - much too speculative .
 
Ardross said:
I have a few quid on Trumpet Major ew at 12s with Ladbrokes and have no interest in backing anything else - much too speculative .
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That's a reasonable view to take. TM sets a certain standard. I'm taking the view that at least a couple of others will find him out. But at the price you have for a modest stake it's plausible.

I love this time of year though for the very reason that it is speculative.
 
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SteveM said:
That may well be true (and is also my view) as he was a middle distance type that never ran at a mile again. But as he was pushed into the race before he was ready we'll never really know.
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Surely O'Brien has an incentive to say that after the fact though (much like So You Think at Royal Ascot)? He never got the chance to prove himself at a mile again, but at the same time he has certainly never struck me as a horse that would appreciate dropping down in trip.

For what it's worth, I largely agree with what seems to be the consensus with regards this year's renewal; Trumpet Major was impressive in the Craven and looks the bet at the prices, especially if you take the view that he will improve for fast ground (which I do).

The Dewhurst was a funny race in that the early pace looked relatively steady to me. I actually thought Power shaped like the best horse in the race, particularly the way he stayed on once he met the rising ground.

I know nothing about the French form.
 
I find this rather head in the sand approach to just ignoring foreign form really baffling. After Cirrus won the Champion Stakes last year at 12/1 when he should have been second fav I half expected this angle to close.
 
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Euronymous said:
I find this rather heading the sand approach to just ignoring foreign form really baffling. After Cirrus won the Champion Stakes last year at 12/1 when he should have been second fav I half expected this angle to close.
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That angle should have closed ten years ago. Thankfully it is the gift that keeps on giving, long may it continue
 
Bar the Bull said:
Is this not a bit overused now? This Ladbrokes pricing of Ballydoyle horses mularkey....I am starting to think it's bollocks.
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It's total bollocks. I'm convinced they do it for headlines and headlines only. They were top price Camelot all winter, only now they've decided to go bottom price. James Knight of Coral (used to post on here I believe) often takes the **** out of it on Twitter and has a few examples of what a nonsense it is. They went shortest about So You Think for the Dubai World Cup, you could have had 8s with me as they went in the stalls despite what it was on Betfair and that goes against basic trading principles.
 
Hamm said:
I'm pretty sure this isn't a profitable angle. Unless you have stats to prove otherwise?
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I was intrigued so just ran a quick query on French trainers in the UK on the flat turf in the last 5 seasons, showing a £25.75 profit for £1 stakes at SP.
 
I wouldn't advocate just backing every French horse who runs here as some of them will be higher profile than others, especially if Fabre trains them.
 
Euronymous said:
I wouldn't advocate just backing every French horse who runs here as some of them will be higher profile than others, especially if Fabre trains them.
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Precisely. I was amazed Criquette-Head ran at LSP profit too for the last five years.
 
Take a 33/1 out of anyone's book and they'd suffer a bit.

I would filter it down and take out any French trained animal that had already run over here.
 
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Gamla Stan said:
Yes and take some of the Fabre/Royer-Dupre odds on shots out and it's better. You can't pick and choose your data in a sample size! :lol:
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Yes but the impact of those will be proportionally less than a 33/1 shot.

I'm just saying you can intepret empirical data in a number of ways and if you apply this to the real world how many people would really have backed Makfi? Not many so this perceived "angle" isn't really an angle because apart from that horse everything else returns an LS loss. The inference being that for the most part French horses are not overpriced (Unless they are unfashionable cheaply bought Shadwell cast offs). If you want to believe they are overpriced then fair enough, the guineas value has gone now though imo for the french raiders - I actually think the prices available about the French horses now are pretty tight. 10/1 Mashoora is a bad price imo and despite having backed both I wouldn't be rushing to back Abtaal or French Fifteen at current prices. The latter is the better value currently only because you can be pretty sure he'll run.
 
Aragorn said:
Power quoted at 14's with Ladbrokes. Maybe they know something and Power isn't up to much.
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Power has pretty solid credentials on form and although he looks like making the race now that Nephrite is not a player the 14/1 reflects reports (that Ladbrokes and indeed the market in general is aware of) that he's had an interrupted preparation.
 
To be fair, there aren't enough runners for five years to be a true sample as any statistician will tell you but you have to include 33/1 chances, just like you'd have to include a run of 12 Fabre horses getting turned over at odds on. All sample sizes contain extremes at both ends of the spectrum. Euro's assumption that French raiders are overpriced carries some weight but as he concedes, it isn't black and white. Trackside himself said that he didn't have a clue about the French form and that's how the runners become overpriced, remember at the end of the day that markets are formed by money and if punters don't have a clue about the French form, they won't back French horses and thus their prices will move out. It's the same the world over, look at the International meetings in Hong Kong, European horses are ignored completely in the betting. It's natural for punters to bet on what they know and understand.

How would you price the races up out of interest? I don't think Mashoora is value at 10s but she shouldn't be any bigger and her true price is probably more like 8s. The colts however, especially FF are insanely big.
 
Aragorn said:
The inference being that for the most part French horses are not overpriced (Unless they are unfashionable cheaply bought Shadwell cast offs). If you want to believe they are overpriced then fair enough, the guineas value has gone now though imo for the french raiders - I actually think the prices available about the French horses now are pretty tight.
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It is too much of a generalization to say all French trained horses are overpriced.
But if a horse or two in any given race is going to be hugely underpriced then it is the more unfashionably trained opponent(s) who will make up for this shortfall. So in the Champion Stakes Cirrus took a walk to 12/1 when Dubai Prince and Nathaniel were at least half the odds they should have been.

Kasbah Bliss was French trained but imo is the worst odds-on shot ever to run at Cheltenham.

Ultimately each race is different but I still believe it's an angle that is there. Look at last year's Coronation: Immortal Verse started two points longer than Theyskens' Theory. The latter was trained by a monkey and had won a listed race LTO. The former had won a Group 2.
 
Euronymous said:
Ultimately each race is different but I still believe it's an angle that is there. Look at last year's Coronation: Immortal Verse started two points longer than Theyskens' Theory. The latter was trained by a monkey and had won a listed race LTO. The former had won a Group 2.
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:lol:
 
Gamla Stan said:
The colts however, especially FF are insanely big.
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Camelot 6/4. I don't think he'll win but layers can't be OTT because he has the best form ultimately even if he will need further. Should be 15/8.

Top Offer 8/1. Unfortunately a weak 2000 could fall to something like this. It isn't without precedent. Should be 14s.

Born to Sea 8/1. Brilliant trainer, mouth watering trainer. Still a bit short though. Should be 12s.

French Fifteen and Abtaal 12/1. Nice looking trial runs, both Group winners. I agree with Stan in that their prices still have juice in them. I'd have them both at 8/1.

Trumpet Major 10/1. Not as impressive as Haafhd in his Craven but has claims. I'd go 8/1.

Power and Parish Hall 14/1. look priced about right.
 
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