The Road to the 2012 2000 Guineas

I'm not saying you discount it necessarily Stan, because that would be picking and choosing like you say, just that this concept that french horses are overpriced is effectively being substantiated by the price of one guineas winner (When we are talking SP). I do take your point though and there is definitely value to be had, particularly with the less fashionable trainers (Although people like Rouget and Delzangles are well known now).

Unless i've missed it Mashoora is yet to be confirmed for the race? Nor has Abtaal hence why the prices are too tight imo (Given they are french i'm always assuming they are less likely to run than their british counterparts until I get evidence to the contrary) and hence why FF is the only one I think is close to value currently.

I haven't priced the race up but with so many in it and so many unknowns and variables to factor in it's not worth it. A lot of my AP bets are just instinct when it comes to weighing up the price.

I backed Pour Moi at 95's last year before he ran. Then he got beat and went out to 220's. I didn;t think that was value cos I thought i'd picked a dud at that point!! How I wish i'd topped up!!! Just on that subject does anyone know if Baraan is still in training? I genuinely believe we were robbed of seeing a top notcher with this horse last year. His jockey club performance was bonkers!!!
 
Euronymous said:
It is too much of a generalization to say all French trained horses are overpriced.
But if a horse or two in any given race is going to be hugely underpriced then it is the more unfashionably trained opponent(s) who will make up for this shortfall. So in the Champion Stakes Cirrus took a walk to 12/1 when Dubai Prince and Nathaniel were at least half the odds they should have been.

Kasbah Bliss was French trained but imo is the worst odds-on shot ever to run at Cheltenham.

Ultimately each race is different but I still believe it's an angle that is there. Look at last year's Coronation: Immortal Verse started two points longer than Theyskens' Theory. The latter was trained by a monkey and had won a listed race LTO. The former had won a Group 2.
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I agree with this Euro. This is the point rather than it being a generally applicable mantra.
 
Most of that makes sense but Power IMHO had the beating of Parish Hall and Trumpet Major in last year's Dewhurst. His price with Ladbrokes reflects more the fact they and others have a one horse book on the race. This could well be a moderate bunch of 3 year olds.
 
Gamla Stan said:
...The colts however, especially FF are insanely big.
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I'd agree that FF has good chances if lining up and Abtaal looks just as good. Although indications are that connections favour the Guineas over Longchamp for FF, I guess there is still an element of uncertainty about FF's participation in the price. After consulting at length with Sheikh Al Thani, Clement said they would “probably” opt for the straight mile of the Guineas.
 
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On The Bridle said:
Most of that makes sense but Power IMHO had the beating of Parish Hall and Trumpet Major in last year's Dewhurst. His price with Ladbrokes reflects more the fact they and others have a one horse book on the race. This could well be a moderate bunch of 3 year olds.
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...and that Power has had an interrupted prep.
 
Aragorn said:
Unless i've missed it Mashoora is yet to be confirmed for the race? Nor has Abtaal hence why the prices are too tight imo (Given they are french i'm always assuming they are less likely to run than their british counterparts until I get evidence to the contrary) and hence why FF is the only one I think is close to value currently.
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Claude Charlet on RUK pretty much confirmed Mashoora's presence in the Guineas yesterday.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I think Nephrite will win this race, but I am a bit concerned that he won't run in the race. Looking back at my stats running in a race is the single most important factor to consider when trying to find a Guineas winner. 10 out of the last 10 Guineas have fallen to a horse who has entered the race. This is almost as important than being drawn in Trap 2 in a juvenile 5f handicap at Chester.
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Thankfully I looked at the stats. It appears his chances will be compromised by not running - a fate that has prevented many a horse from winning the Guineas down the years.

I am struggling to get excited about this race. Somebody please fire me up.
 
jft2005 said:
what's happened to his preperation, i havn't read anything (not that ive been actively looking though)
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I noted that he suffered a slight "setback" earlier on that caused him to miss a bit of work. Difficult to prise anything out of Ballydoyle but it was enough to cause him to take a backseat behind Camelot and Nephrite until the recent Nephrite flop. He seems on schedule for the race now so I wouldn't worry too much.
 
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Bar the Bull said:
Thankfully I looked at the stats. It appears his chances will be compromised by not running - a fate that has prevented many a horse from winning the Guineas down the years.
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:lol: In Nephrite’s case his chances would have been compromised anyway, by other horses taking part.
 
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Steve, I thought it was after him not working particularly well at the Curragh and O'Brien said he was behind rather had met with a setback although I could be wrong.
 
Aragorn said:
Steve, I thought it was after him not working particularly well at the Curragh and O'Brien said he was behind rather had met with a setback although I could be wrong.
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He worked at the back of one of the groups that worked about 5 weeks ago up the Curragh. He took his time out the back....
 
It's all a bit vague and like getting blood out of a stone at times for Ballydoyle to confirm or deny anything. But apparently he suffered some interruption to his preparation earlier on that doesn't appear to be too serious, although not great grounds for enthusiasm either. He seemed to be a clear third in the pecking order for the Guineas (whereas you might have expected it to be the other way round with Nephrite), which considering Nephrite's recent performance would be a little worrying.

As indicated I don't know what his setback consisted of, or if it was simply a lack of sparkle, or a lack of sparkle following setback.
 
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This is what AOB said on the day of the Curragh gallops:

Power missed a little time after Christmas but nothing major and he just followed them up there today. I was happy enough with what he did.
 
Sequoyah said:
This is what AOB said on the day of the Curragh gallops:

Power missed a little time after Christmas but nothing major and he just followed them up there today. I was happy enough with what he did.
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Thanks Sequoyah. That's pretty much what I had in my notes on him.
 
SteveM said:
It's all a bit vague and like getting blood out of a stone at times for Ballydoyle to confirm or deny anything. But apparently he suffered some interruption to his preparation earlier on that doesn't appear to be too serious, although not great grounds for enthusiasm either. He seemed to be a clear third in the pecking order for the Guineas (whereas you might have expected it to be the other way round with Nephrite), which considering Nephrite's recent performance would be a little worrying.

As indicated I don't know what his setback consisted of, or if it was simply a lack of sparkle, or a lack of sparkle following setback.
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I'm not sure Nephrite was ever second in the pecking order for the Guineas (In Ballydoyle circles anyway). The betting on the Loughbrawn at the weekend told you Ballydoyle knew he wasn't that good.

I've still got a suspicion we could see Power smashed up closer to the day of the race. He got the usual AOB 2yo guineas campaign.
 
Yes he's got solid form. If he starts to show his form and goes into the race bouncing the market will probably latch on to him. That still has to happen by all accounts though.
 
Aragorn said:
I'm not sure Nephrite was ever second in the pecking order for the Guineas (In Ballydoyle circles anyway). The betting on the Loughbrawn at the weekend told you Ballydoyle knew he wasn't that good.

I've still got a suspicion we could see Power smashed up closer to the day of the race. He got the usual AOB 2yo guineas campaign.
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i agree,power looks to be a steady bet.
 
Forced to take the 12s on French Fifteen (Corals go 8/1) before his price contracts too much. I’m taking the trainer at his word that Newmarket is first option.
 
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