The Road to the 2012 2000 Guineas

The way he uses himself. This horse has pace to burn. If you've got an account with Equidia watch the video's of his races.

The one thing that concerns me is that even though he's won over a mile, he hasn't run a fast time over the distance and his pedigree is packed with speed so if it comes up testing I'd be concerned about him seeing it out. Hence my comment about going in heavy on the day provided its not testing.
 
Its a completely fascinating renewal at this stage. I get the feeling that AOB's hand is being forced by Coolmore who want a G1 winner over a mile for Montjeu. If it was totally up to the trainer I think Camelot would go Derrinstown/Derby. Does he just want to get through the race unscathed and with his horse still on track for the Derby?
 
Euronymous said:
Its a completely fascinating renewal at this stage. I get the feeling that AOB's hand is being forced by Coolmore who want a G1 winner over a mile for Montjeu. If it was totally up to the trainer I think Camelot would go Derrinstown/Derby. Does he just want to get through the race unscathed and with his horse still on track for the Derby?
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Coolmore is certainly very keen to win a classic/Group 1 at a mile with a son of Montjeu, but this will not be the only opportunity to do this. It might be wrong to assume that O'Brien is not onside with this. I think we can assume that the going will not be lightening fast so the winning colt will have to see out at least a mile and Camelot is the right type of Montjeu to do very well here.
 
I just can't have Camelot for this. I'll keep opposing Montjeu colts at this distance this early in the year until proven otherwise - I will be amazed if there isn't something quicker than him in the field and i'm hoping that is Abtaal.

O'Brien has been much more tight lipped this year - Do you think that is a) because after St Nic they don't want to build up Camelot to much b) He's actually not that good
or c) they're not really sure how good he is?
 
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Necessity helps to concentrate the mind. In the coming two seasons you will see Montjeu’s managing to win Pattern and Group 1 races at a mile, not least because they will be aimed at such races.

When has O’Brien ever been anything other than tight lipped. Whatever beats Camelot wins. I can’t see him out of the frame in this.
 
PRICEWISE2008 said:
Only thing that "worries" me is that he's 28's on Betfair:confused::confused: Dewhurst winner...somebody knows something:confused::confused:
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Nobody knows anything. He may well be more a Derby type, which is where he was going straight after the Dewhurst, but the horse was telling them to go for the Guineas early in the season and they made the decision to go for it. Five of them finished together in the Dewhurst, which is why the betting market has not latched on to him, but he’s virtually as good as anything else in the race. Remember he was 20/1 when winning the Dewhurst! The Betfair price simply reflects those who don’t appreciate him. If you fancy him don’t be put off by this sort of price.
 
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SteveM said:
Necessity helps to concentrate the mind. In the coming two seasons you will see Montjeu’s managing to win Pattern and Group 1 races at a mile, not least because they will be aimed at such races.

When has O’Brien ever been anything other than tight lipped. Whatever beats Camelot wins. I can’t see him out of the frame in this.
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St Nic was the second coming of Pegasus before his guineas - Certainly over the winter and there were numerous quotes about him breaking gallops records etc etc but the PR machine has not kicked into gear this year and they are being much more guarded. St Nic only just has the pace to win over 1m4f at Group 1 level and he was supposedly lightning quick at 2.

Bold Statement - I'd have twenty quid that a 3yo Montjeu does not win a Group 1 race over a mile this year.

Parish Hall has been weak and on the drift all week.
 
Aragorn said:
St Nic was the second coming of Pegasus before his guineas - Certainly over the winter and there were numerous quotes about him breaking gallops records etc etc but the PR machine has not kicked into gear this year and they are being much more guarded. St Nic only just has the pace to win over 1m4f at Group 1 level and he was supposedly lightning quick at 2.

Bold Statement - I'd have twenty quid that a 3yo Montjeu does not win a Group 1 race over a mile this year.

Parish Hall has been weak and on the drift all week.
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SNA was pushed into the race and anyone who saw how spare he looked going down wouldn't have had a penny on him. There is no evidence whatsoever that Camelot is in the same boat. He has been described as thriving physically and has had an uninterrupted preparation.

People don't know what to back against the favourite this year and Parish Hall is available at anything between 12s and twice that. He's not exactly drifting simply unfancied for a bit of money on Betfair.
 
22 in 2,000 Guineas. Five out (Crius, Dragon Pulse, Farraaj, Light Heavy, Rebellious Guest) and one supplementary entry, Noseda's Talwar.
 
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SteveM said:
SNA was pushed into the race and anyone who saw how spare he looked going down wouldn't have had a penny on him. There is no evidence whatsoever that Camelot is in the same boat. He has been described as thriving physically and has had an uninterrupted preparation.
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I can't comment on how he looked on the day, but the notion that St Nicholas Abbey had an interrupted or rushed preparation just isn't true:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2010/apr/30/aidan-obrien-fascinated-2000-guineas
 
O'Brien said: 'St Nicholas Abbey is only coming back now. He is only starting to quicken like a really top horse again.


'You saw that in Dubai (when second to Cirrus Des Aigles in the Sheema Classic) and America (when winning the 2011 Breeders' Cup Turf).

'It took so long for the brilliance to come back. He lost it in the spring of his three-year-old career and, maybe, I forced him a bit. That is why I am only saying now I've one eye on the Guineas for Camelot. I have not forced him."
 
No mention of Top offer here? the one being backed and from a stable that doesn't get carried away with hype. Very nice looking horse in one run so far

Bred for it i think? I am against Camelot for reasons many have stated and the Dewhurst is all about horses finishing in a heap.
 
Bar the Bull said:
O'Brien said: 'St Nicholas Abbey is only coming back now. He is only starting to quicken like a really top horse again.


'You saw that in Dubai (when second to Cirrus Des Aigles in the Sheema Classic) and America (when winning the 2011 Breeders' Cup Turf).

'It took so long for the brilliance to come back. He lost it in the spring of his three-year-old career and, maybe, I forced him a bit. That is why I am only saying now I've one eye on the Guineas for Camelot. I have not forced him."
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Interesting, Bar, though he doesn't specify whether he 'lost his brilliance' before, after or during the Guineas.

As a rule I tend to take most of what O'Brien says after the fact with a fairly heavy pinch of salt; the thing about him 'forcing' SNA, for instance, is completely at odds with what he said before the race.
 
It doesnt matter what Obrien says
its better to look the price of the horses in the betting



about St Nicholas Abbey
he was a better 2yo than Camelot and underperformed in the Guineas but even if that day was at his best I dont think he would have finished in the first 3.
Makfi and Canfor Clffs were top class milers.



This year looks a weak edition
at the prices I prefer Trumpet Major and Parish HAll rather than Camelot.
 
Mandaean is the Group 1 winner here that has gone under the radar. He's probably more of a Derby horse though being aimed at the Dante.
 
SteveM said:
Mandaean is the Group 1 winner here that has gone under the radar. He's probably more of a Derby horse though being aimed at the Dante.
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Would be surprised if he were quick enough for a Guineas - who was the last Guineas winner who hadn't won/raced over a mile or less prior to the race?

A softish ground Derby or the Leger would likely be more his cup of tea IMO.

Martin
 
SteveM said:
Mandaean is the Group 1 winner here that has gone under the radar. He's probably more of a Derby horse though being aimed at the Dante.
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Mandaean would have trouble winning a walkover in the Guineas much less with 20 or so opponents. He is screaming 12 furlongs.
 
Irish Stamp said:
Would be surprised if he were quick enough for a Guineas - who was the last Guineas winner who hadn't won/raced over a mile or less prior to the race?

A softish ground Derby or the Leger would likely be more his cup of tea IMO.

Martin
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I agree.
 
brendanr said:
Mandaean would have trouble winning a walkover in the Guineas much less with 20 or so opponents. He is screaming 12 furlongs.
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I'm surprised he's in the race as he was being aimed at the Dante and still may not turn up. He features at the top of the stamina aptitude table for the race and can only improve for stepping up. Nevertheless he is unbeaten and impressive.
 
Still don't think he'll run but maybe they are thinking, keep him in cuz if it's a bog he might come into it. His 2yo form is not working out
 
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