The Road to the 2012 2000 Guineas

On The Bridle said:
Closer it gets the more I'm inclined to think that Born to Sea beats Camelot but does this mean he wins?
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That's a way of looking at it and not too far from my own. These two relatively unexposed but potentially class against those we have a clearer idea of in terms of form that are perhaps just short of what we're looking for. Perhaps we can find one to beat the pair of them, but either of these would probably look good winners.
 
As I said, I've gone for one exposed (FF) and one unexposed (BTS) at decent enough prices that makes for a nice interest, but its simply not a race you can get stuck into with any degree of confidence. Golan was almost entirely unexposed when he won it at a shorter price than I've backed those two, and he turned out to be a 12f animal, so who knows?
 
Course is back to Soft again after more rain (Good/Soft yesterday). More rain on the way too.

Course Newmarket
Next Race Saturday 5th May
Report Date Tuesday 1st May; 4:15 pm
Going Soft
GoingStick 6.1
Additional Information

Weather Forecast
9.5mm of overnight and morning rain. Dry since 11.30am.
Tuesday: Overnight rain clearing late morning to leave the rest of the day mainly dry 15C.
Wednesday: Dry and with sunny spells during the day. Followed by evening showers 16C.
Thursday: Morning rain clearing to leave a drier and brighter afternoon 13C.
Friday: Mainly dry and with sunny breaks 13C
Saturday: Cloudy and cooler with a possible isoloated shower 11C.
Sunday: Cooler and with possible showers 11C.
 
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A bit more on it. Looks like being on the slow side. Newmarket also has a draw bias for the Rowley Mile when Soft doesn't it?


"It's been an unusually wet April," said Kettley, who advises Jockey Club Racecourses. "I still think it will be on the soft side of good. There is too much potential for rain. There is potential for rain in showery form and it's difficult to imagine it will dry out an awful lot. It's pretty soft at the moment.

"Newmarket does drain really well and you'd anticipate it would still be on the slow side for Saturday. The potential is still for something like 8mm to come."
 
glad you metioned this Steve, when its the Cambridgeshire the draw bias is banged on about relentlessly, yet when its the guineas, nothing is mentioned!

I believe there will be a strong draw bias. unfortunately, the only clue we will get prior to the 2,000 is the first race on the card, which wont be enough to draw a conclusive view.
 
Steve, I take it back. I'll listen to you in future!

Some of the jockey bookings have been confirmed - Peslier on FF and Soumillon gets the leg up on Abtaal - would you be pissed off if you were Hanagan or is his retainer UK horses only? Can't decide whether Soumillon is a positive or not. He has more experience than Hanagan in the big races but he is always liable to throw in a shocker. I'm hoping he's on a going day!!
 
Aragorn said:
Steve, I take it back. I'll listen to you in future!

Some of the jockey bookings have been confirmed - Peslier on FF and Soumillon gets the leg up on Abtaal - would you be pissed off if you were Hanagan or is his retainer UK horses only? Can't decide whether Soumillon is a positive or not. He has more experience than Hanagan in the big races but he is always liable to throw in a shocker. I'm hoping he's on a going day!!
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Retainer will be UK horses only Aragorn - Soumillon rode Joanna in the Classics and big sprints in France a few years ago, Fernando Jara rode Invasor in the World Cup etc.

If a British trained Hamdan horse runs abroad then PH will ride.

Martin
 
Bar the Bull said:
There is a lot of rain due for the next 24 hours in the south of England. Not sure if it will make it as far north as Newmarket, but if they get the 30mm that some parts are forecast, it'll be soft on the day given the showers forecast for the rest of the week.
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This is what I said on Monday.

Now it may be dry for the rest of the week. But there is still a forecast of showers. I was puzzled as to where Prosser was getting his optimistic forecast. The models I look at have always shown unsettled for this week in England.
 
Clerks of the course always try to be all things to all people (at least before the confirmation stage), whatever it really is all double speak ahead of events gravitate back toward "close to good" or "near perfect going". With the deluge we've had I'm surprised it's holding up as well as it is.
 
Is Le Beau Bai eligible for the Guineas?

This Evening and Tonight:

Cloudy with rain extending north and west, becoming heavy and thundery at times, mainly in the south at first, but across more central and northern counties later, some local intense downpours giving a risk of local flooding. Minimum Temperature 6 °C.
Thursday:

A dull, wet and misty day with further rain, some heavy at first but turning lighter through the day, with southern areas perhaps dry later. Light winds but rather cool. Maximum Temperature 11 °C.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Cloudy on Friday with some outbreaks of rain. Mostly dry on Saturday and Sunday, some brighter intervals possible, but generally rather cold with overnight frosts possible.
 
SteveM said:
My point is that Pricewise shouldn't be put off if he fancies him, especially if he has heard he has a good chance. His prices are all over the place, so you can't really say he's drifting. People just don't know. Remember he was 20/1 when winning the Dewhurst.
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More on Parish Hall. Bolger is sounding bullish, saying he is up there with anything he has prepared for the race. The proviso is that he won't run on Soft. If he does line up on the day I'd expect him to run well. He may also be worth backing for the Derby if he lines up in the Guineas on expectation of a big run.
 
Since the pattern was started, there have been only two soft going Guineas, in 1973 and 1978. Admittedly a long time ago but there were shocks on both occasions.
Roland Gardens won in 1978 at odds of 28/1 with the placed horses coming in at fourteens and twenties. 1973 saw a 50/1 shot in Mon Fils (Hannon’s first classic) with the placed at 18 and 45/1.
If the rain does come down before the weekend I would not want to get involved in anything too short, particularly Camelot. Boomerang Bob at 50/1 is a speculative proposition for me – he handled the soft at Newbury when half fit although he has to prove himself with another furlong.
 
J O Tobin said:
Since the pattern was started, there have been only two soft going Guineas, in 1973 and 1978. Admittedly a long time ago but there were shocks on both occasions.
Roland Gardens won in 1978 at odds of 28/1 with the placed horses coming in at fourteens and twenties. 1973 saw a 50/1 shot in Mon Fils (Hannon’s first classic) with the placed at 18 and 45/1.
If the rain does come down before the weekend I would not want to get involved in anything too short, particularly Camelot. Boomerang Bob at 50/1 is a speculative proposition for me – he handled the soft at Newbury when half fit although he has to prove himself with another furlong.
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Excellent post. This is a race to have a speculative punt and not try and knock one out of the park. I can see Born To Sea being supported into a clear second favourite.
 
I disagree that BTS will shorten, suspect he'll drift if anything.

The three from the Dewhurst will shorten more than anything I reckon. Pricewise is a certainty to put either Trumpet Major or a French colt up.

Be amazed if Top Offer even goes off shorter than 12s.
 
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