The Road to the 2012 2000 Guineas

I still believe the two biggest threats to the Favourite were Most Improved and Akeed Mofeed, both sustained setbacks and miss the race. Therefore, I think the favourite is a lock by default really. I'll hold out for 7/4 or even bigger closer to racetime.
 
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J O Tobin said:
Since the pattern was started, there have been only two soft going Guineas, in 1973 and 1978. Admittedly a long time ago but there were shocks on both occasions.
Roland Gardens won in 1978 at odds of 28/1 with the placed horses coming in at fourteens and twenties. 1973 saw a 50/1 shot in Mon Fils (Hannon’s first classic) with the placed at 18 and 45/1.
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In addition, in 1979 the official going was Good, but it had been Soft the day before and the time of the race was very slow. The 15/8 fav Kris was beaten by the 20/1 shot Tap On Wood.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I disagree that BTS will shorten, suspect he'll drift if anything.

The three from the Dewhurst will shorten more than anything I reckon. Pricewise is a certainty to put either Trumpet Major or a French colt up.

Be amazed if Top Offer even goes off shorter than 12s.
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I don't get your Dewhurst angle. Punters have been backing Most Improved to reverse that form so now why will they fall for the others? Born To Sea on the other hand in an unknown quantity who's form with Nephrite looks even better given that he was lame afterwards and the Ballydoyle colt is a sprinter. The 3rd Aaraas was a good second to Kissed last Sunday so his form is solid group class. I think Born To Sea will be 5/1 at best come the off.
 
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Except on extremes, i.e soft/heavy and firm, I think the ground is over analysed and is often put forward to explain a poor run in the absence of anything else to blame.
 
Folk on Twitter saying he said yesterday he wouldn't run if it was soft but that passed me by.

18 Declared otherwise:

Abtaal (USA)
Boomerang Bob (IRE)
Born To Sea (IRE)
Bronterre
Camelot
Caspar Netscher
Coupe de Ville (IRE)
Fencing (USA)
French Fifteen (FR)
Hermival (IRE)
Power
Ptolemaic (Visor)
Redact (IRE)
Red Duke (USA)
Saigon
Talwar (IRE)
Top Offer
Trumpet Major (IRE)
 
SteveM said:
More on Parish Hall. Bolger is sounding bullish, saying he is up there with anything he has prepared for the race. The proviso is that he won't run on Soft. If he does line up on the day I'd expect him to run well. He may also be worth backing for the Derby if he lines up in the Guineas on expectation of a big run.
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...you could have read that on here, or indeed in the Racing Post.
 
I'm pleased he's not running. He was one of my worries.

I'd had this down to a shortlist of five a while ago and now four remain:

Abtaal
French Fifteen
Power
Born to Sea

I've backed Abtaal at 36, 30, 28, 20, 16, 15.5, 14, 12 on the machine and i'm hoping to get a final lump on at 11 if I can. Seems to be money for him though although I think on the day with him being a Frenchie he's more likely to drift, thats the theory anyway. The more I look at his pedigree and comments from his trainer the more I think the mile won't be a problem and if it comes up good to soft that will be just fine as he's already proven on it.

Backed French Fifteen at 48's prior to the Djebel and he will be a decent winner for me but only about 1/5 of what i'll win on Abtaal.

Backed Power already to cover stakes and will do the same with Born to Sea.

I just don't fancy Camelot and fully expect him to get beaten but of the remainder its actually Top Offer who worries me most because i've got nothing to go on other than other trainers speaking highly of him and the fact that Charlton, who is usually a careful trainer, is running off the back of a maiden win.

Although there is no superstar going into this i'm really looking forward to this guineas and hope it throws up a good winner. Preferably Abtaal!!!!
 
Aragorn said:
I'm pleased he's not running. He was one of my worries.

I'd had this down to a shortlist of five a while ago and now four remain:

Abtaal
French Fifteen
Power
Born to Sea
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Good luck with these. My top five were very similar:

French Fifteen
Camelot
Born To Sea
Abtaal
Parish Hall

So I’m left with the four.

I see Rouget is today saying that Abtaal can finish in the top four and I don’t suppose there will be too much between him and French Fifteen again.

The superstar going into the race is certainly Camelot. We’ll see if it’s the same afterwards. Born To Sea looks classy and could be anything.

Camelot and BTS for me represent the class, but at the moment the more exposed French pair probably set the standard to beat.
 
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sunybay said:
soft ground and big fields in the cards


what is better far side or stand side?
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your right I had been wondering about this too. There is a definite draw advantage when it's Soft on the Rowley Mile. I was hoping someone would get back about this. I can't quite remember. It's something like one side to six furlongs then changes at eight furlongs. Overall I think the far side in favoured over eight. Not sure about this though.
 
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Our views are very similar then Steve.

I'm not a massive fan of Camelot and I think he is a terrible price so I have to oppose him. I've seen Rouget's comments, Gold made similar comments about a week ago and they're giving me comfort he will stay a mile well as they seem to think its his minimum trip. If he's anything like his sire he'll be best between 8 -10f and whilst I know nothing about his dam or his damsire his siblings would give you hope the mile, even on softer ground, won't be a problem.
 
SteveM said:
your right I had been wondering about this too. There is a definite draw advantage when it's Soft on the Rowley Mile. I was hoping someone would get back about this. I can't quite remember. It's something like one side to six furlongs then changes at eight furlongs. Overall I think the far side in favoured over eight. Not sure about this though.
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Best to wait until the day if you're not sure. The 2.00 is over 1m1f and there is a big field declared so you should get an idea of the draw bias.
 
All I can glean is that due to the wideness of the course and the rails being frequently moved the draw analysis is unpredictable. As you say, the advice is to watch the earlier races.
 
Aragorn said:
Our views are very similar then Steve.

I'm not a massive fan of Camelot and I think he is a terrible price so I have to oppose him. I've seen Rouget's comments, Gold made similar comments about a week ago and they're giving me comfort he will stay a mile well as they seem to think its his minimum trip. If he's anything like his sire he'll be best between 8 -10f and whilst I know nothing about his dam or his damsire his siblings would give you hope the mile, even on softer ground, won't be a problem.
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On breeding and form French Fifteen, Abtaal and Born To Sea look the most promising that will be fully effective at a mile, but the conditions may favour one with a bit more stamina this year. Although having said that I was having this conversation with Maurice who points out that if there is no great pace it may go to a proper miler anyway.

Camelot was good value in my opinion at 3/1 and a bit bigger (which I've backed him at). He may well drift on the day (in which case I may back him again) when money will come from all over the place from those seeking some value. A drifting price won't necessarily stop him winning though.
 
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The best draw will be where the pace is (it invariably is); and with Ptolemaic drawn 1 and Abtaal 2, it looks a no-brainer which is the best side to be at the moment.
 
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