The Road to the 2012 2000 Guineas

SteveM said:
Anyone who has looked at a horse in action will tell you Camelot can escape from a chained up bag and beat Power. Past form doesn't win a Guineas, ability does.

Form is all well and good up to a point when there is nothing else to go on, but when you see the X factor, back it.
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That's fine but New Approach and Generous and Celtic Swing couldn't win a Guineas despite having all the ability in the world.
 
SteveM said:
Anyone who has looked at a horse in action will tell you Camelot can escape from a chained up bag and beat Power. Past form doesn't win a Guineas, ability does.

Form is all well and good up to a point when there is nothing else to go on, but when you see the X factor, back it.
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So on the one hand ye claim Power's form isn't up to much and then it's all to do with being unexposed. Which side of the fence are ye actually on? Actually, I know...not with Power. I can see your reasons and thought he might just be a 2yo but I'm willing to take the chance and history tells me I should. If you can't learn from your past mistakes, you're going nowhere fast.
 
SteveM said:
Anyone who has looked at a horse in action will tell you Camelot can escape from a chained up bag and beat Power. Past form doesn't win a Guineas, ability does.

Form is all well and good up to a point when there is nothing else to go on, but when you see the X factor, back it.
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It almost feels like people are latching onto any horse they can to take on Camelot with. As Most Improved, Parish hall and Top Offer have fallen by the wayside they move on to the nest yoke.
 
Euronymous said:
That's fine but New Approach and Generous and Celtic Swing couldn't win a Guineas despite having all the ability in the world.
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I'm not disagreeing with that. Although I'm in large on Camelot at 3/1 and above, I've backed against him with French Fifteen and Born To Sea at his price now as this sort of thing can happen. I've also said Camelot will improve for stepping up to middle distances, which is why I also opposed the three you mention for the Guineas. What I am saying is that Camelot will beat Power over any trip.

I can certainly see Camelot finishing second in this and running a cracking good race. I can also see him winning it.
 
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trefflich said:
So on the one hand ye claim Power's form isn't up to much and then it's all to do with being unexposed. Which side of the fence are ye actually on? Actually, I know...not with Power. I can see your reasons and thought he might just be a 2yo but I'm willing to take the chance and history tells me I should. If you can't learn from your past mistakes, you're going nowhere fast.
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Please don't mix myself and Steve up. Believe it or not we're not the same person, he's the funny one :D


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SlimChance said:
It almost feels like people are latching onto any horse they can to take on Camelot with. As Most Improved, Parish hall and Top Offer have fallen by the wayside they move on to the nest yoke.
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People backing Parish Hall for this were always barking up the wrong tree. Anything he did as a 2yo was a bonus given his pedigree.
 
SlimChance said:
It almost feels like people are latching onto any horse they can to take on Camelot with. As Most Improved, Parish hall and Top Offer have fallen by the wayside they move on to the nest yoke.
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That's exactly how I feel. Desperation is the right word. It's somewhere between desperation and good sense that I've sensed in myself in covering on FF and BTS.
 
trefflich said:
So on the one hand ye claim Power's form isn't up to much and then it's all to do with being unexposed. Which side of the fence are ye actually on? Actually, I know...not with Power. I can see your reasons and thought he might just be a 2yo but I'm willing to take the chance and history tells me I should. If you can't learn from your past mistakes, you're going nowhere fast.
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I don't think you've read what I said. Power's form is much better than not up to much, it is, as I've said, solid. I don't see anything special in him though and he'd be a disappointing Guineas winner for me.
 
SlimChance said:
His form in Ireland revolves around beating Tough As Nails, Dragon Pulse, David Livingstone and Furner's Green. Don't forget La Collina beat him the only time he ran where the word yielding was mentioned in the going.

In his Coventy win at Royal Ascot the next ten horses home have managed to win a class 5 maiden in Leicester, a class 5 maiden in Wolverhampton and a Group 2 in Goodwood. I must quickly add that the Group 2 was won by the 10th horse home, Richard Hannon's Chandlery.

The Dewhurst has been much discussed but I remain on the side that says the form of the race amounts to nothing and the fact the winner does not run and that Most Improved was well backed to reverse the form says it all.

Now tell me again why Power is value?
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I don't know if Power is value but I do know that they tried very hard to book Ryan Moore for Trumpet Major and will be very disappointed if TM is out of the first 3. Does Moore have a contract with the O'Brien yard or was it a personal choice to ride Power?
 
swedish chef said:
I don't know if Power is value but I do know that they tried very hard to book Ryan Moore for Trumpet Major and will be very disappointed if TM is out of the first 3. Does Moore have a contract with the O'Brien yard or was it a personal choice to ride Power?
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Are jockey booking significant in Groups 1's? If you were Ryan Moore which one would you ride with a view to picking up future spares in classics?
 
Bar the Bull said:
If I were Ryan Moore I would be riding the horse that I felt had the best chance of placing in the top 7.

Pick a number between 1 and 100 for our wager, Slim.
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7 and 5 €75 on the basis he'll probably fill one of those positions.
 
SteveM said:
That's exactly how I feel. Desperation is the right word. It's somewhere between desperation and good sense that I've sensed in myself in covering on FF and BTS.
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My feelings on it exactly...Camelot has to beat history..the rest have to beat each other...and even if Camelot is all that something will have to fill the placings...:p
 
Euronymous said:
That's fine but New Approach and Generous and Celtic Swing couldn't win a Guineas despite having all the ability in the world.
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But they aren't Camelot. ffs - and the only one of those to show anything like the same 2yo speed as he, did it off a gruelling pace on rain softened ground!
 
Ay? Are you saying New Approach was a slow 2yo? I haven't got any data to hand but i'm pretty sure New Approach ran quicker times than Camelot did. Quickening past a couple of slow boats doesn;t say much and it wasn't that quick on the clock. Zip top was beaten further by Crius and Fire lily prior to the RP trophy. New Approach's 2yo form was much stronger imho.
 
Powers are claiming they have a massive money back off lined up.

Money back all losers if Camelot wins?
 
It doesn't matter. He has to out run his pedigree and history to win this race tomorrow. It makes no sense to me that he's shorter for the Guineas than he is for the Derby.
 
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