The Road to the 2012 2000 Guineas

My argument is simply that humans and and animals have a finite amount of energy. If you use up more energy laying up to the pace you'll have less at the business end. If the pace had been slower others would have had more for the business end but they clearly didn't. It doesn't mean Camelot wouldn't have won but they wouldn't have been as strung out at the end.
Click to expand...

That makes sense.

I think Joseph's plan was to let his horse travel at his own pace, regardless of what the others were doing, and then go for it a few furlongs out. Because of the fast early pace he found himself a long way behind when he began his finishing effort.

Which would require more energy overall, to cruise and then sprint like he did, or to lay up and then try to kick on? The laws of physics would say it takes a fixed amount of energy to move an object a given distance in a given time, but obviously enough, the energy needs to be distributed across that time in an optimal way.

Did Joseph manage to do that with Camelot? You could say that it was strange to ride the supposed middle distance horse in the race in this way, what was he doing trying to beat the others for pure speed?

Or is it that while the cruising pace of the milers is that bit outside his comfort zone, his top speed matches theirs, so his best chance was to go the pace he was comfortable with and hope he was close enough for his finishing effort to count?
 
What I don't get is Reet argued (quite rightly in the end) before the race that Camelot had a proper turn of foot and was quick enough to win the guineas yet when O'Brien rides him for a turn of foot, and wins, he gets a pasting?!
 
Joseph changed his whip hand 4 times in the last 300 yards... Keeping the horse straight and going forward. Very few jocks have the hands to do that. Andrew Lynch could do with a lesson as per Sligo today.
 
Aragorn said:
What I don't get is Reet argued (quite rightly in the end) before the race that Camelot had a proper turn of foot and was quick enough to win the guineas yet when O'Brien rides him for a turn of foot, and wins, he gets a pasting?!
Click to expand...


"There has to be a question mark over the ground. It's an unknown and there's a lot of top of the ground in his pedigree. He's a good moving horse and he'll be a better horse on faster ground".Joseph O'Brien - Friday.
Click to expand...

Knowing all that, and the state of the ground, did he have to ride him as if he were Pegasus?
 
Last edited:
Ok Reet, if you insist - it was an absolutely shite ride winning the guineas on an inexperienced horse in a messy race with three groups on soft ground...
 
The only difference between the first two was when they started their challenges. Camelot quickened instantly wheras the French horse took that little bit longer to get into top gear.

Had Camelot been closer to the pace he'd definitely have won a bit further/easier using that instant accereration to kick clear instead of using it to get into contention.

Was anything but a great ride, a better judge of pace like Ryan Moore or Hughsie would have won by a length or two but what the hell? the lad won and that's that.

As far as him being 1/1 for the Derby goes are they fookin serious? If that is a Derby winner I'll eat a chocolate ice cream covered in tomato sauce every day for a week. Very ordinary horse very ordinary Guineas IMO.

Fencing apparantly needed that I'd be more inclined to back him EW than throw good money at Camelot
 
Camelot the worst priced Derby horse I've ever witnessed in my entire life.

The horse hasn't needed to improve as a 2-yo to win that 2000 Guineas & rates as the worst renewal of the 2000 Guineas I've ever set my eyes on.

Theres a 95 rated horse whose supposed to have improved 25lbs in the formbook with Coupe De Ville rated 105 staying on in behind by 3.75 lengths rated 105.

All he's done is run another Racing Post Trophy but 2000 Guineas in name.

This has to be lay of the century especially as he's going to be taken off his feet around Epsom downs when they go a good lick.

He's a big horse I give you that but that's all he is and lacks anything required to be a Champion.

Triple Crown is a joke, who do they think they are? what are the media doing with this Camelot story making him out to be the second coming of Dancing Brave.

Just can't wait to keep laying Camelot, I will rub it in everyones face too when he loses.
 
Last edited:
Wondering whether the second and third in the 2000 would go on good. My hunch is the 3rd might be the one to follow over a mile on good ground followed by Trumpet and god knows what else further down the field that just didn't act.
 
People seem to have forgotten that he is a Derby horse who has just won the Guineas. I doubt the form is all that but he has huge potential when tackling middle distances.
 
He won a 2000 Guineas only in name though.

That was not a proper 2000 Guineas, if anything he's won a 2f race and they should put that in his formbook notes.

The worst 2000 Guineas rating I've ever awarded in 18 years.

You get the feeling Aidan knew this though, it wouldn't have been hard to get get information on the other runners when you're connected to the mafia and the omission of any Godolphin threat was strange, he would of knew anything out of Ireland and the French didn't have much.

He made a poor decision running Camelot on that ground yesterday but he knew the field was so **** that he could get away with it and boost "Montjeu" reputation for producing a Group 1 Miler.

Monteju has probably produced the worst Group 1 winning miler of all history and it makes my blood boil that it's going to be used to market his stallion potential, it's ludicrous.

If the 2000 Guineas throws up a three year old that can beat an older horse this year then I'll eat my words and donate £100 to the Talking Horses Charity Box.
 
Last edited:
I took Camelot on early on to my cost. He is poor value for the Derby, but simply looking at the ante post market tells us how weak it's looking at present.

No doubt something will come out of the pack, but the fact that Akeed Mofeed has contracted in the market, for staying at home shows how weak the event is at the moment.

The biggest problem I find is we are non the wiser after the Guineas.

Camelot probably won with a bit in hand but that run was 2 seconds slower than the 1000gn, when the general times were slower on the Sunday.

Did Ryan Moore find a "super highway", even if the opposition failed to perform.
 
he's going to be taken off his feet around Epsom downs when they go a good lick.
Click to expand...

... because they will go so much faster in the Derby than they did in the Guineas?

My thinking on the race.

Abtaal didn't go too fast, Hermival tracked him within a length or two all the way and beat him 5 lengths or so. Abtaal just ran badly or isn't any better than that. The Middle group seemed to be leading at halfway, they didn't finish prominently, but probably couldn't have been expected to do much better. Trumpet Major didn't fall away after leading the near side group.

I reckon they went a fair, decent pace. Horses suited by using themselves early weren't inconvenienced nor were those suited by being held up. I reckon a remarkably fair result given the race split in three. I'd be happy that the form of the first 8 would be more or less upheld for those that happen to meet again on soft ground.
 
I know that it wasn't a vintage Guineas, and I know that the form isn't that great. However, Camelot, who most of us were saying was a Derby horse before the race, won it. Whether you like them or not, they are still the best 3 year old milers around at the moment (with a few exceptions, Harbour Watch for example).

He is now going to the Derby which is the race he is bred to win having won the top race over 1m. Is he going to be facing anything that had the raw ability to win the top G1 mile race for 3yos? I don't think so.

I don't think 5/4 is outstanding a month before the race but I was expecting a lot worse. If he can win the Guineas then he should be able to win the Derby.
 
Bruce_Savage said:
If the 2000 Guineas throws up a three year old that can beat an older horse this year then I'll eat my words and donate £100 to the Talking Horses Charity Box.
Click to expand...
I'd say it was long odds-on that a runner from this year's 2000G will beat an older horse.
 
Some sectional analysis of the Saturday card:

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-ra...-newmarket-saturday-may-5-2012-070512-43.html

• On sectional analysis, the first two in the 2000 Guineas can be rated another length or two clear of the remainder, with Camelot value about twice his neck winning margin over French Fifteen. There were no other significant mark-ups in the race.
• Trumpet Major, who raced close up and led briefly before finishing fourth, ran the race closest to sectional par among the principals in the 2000 Guineas.
Click to expand...
 
Bruce_Savage said:
He made a poor decision running Camelot on that ground yesterday but he knew the field was so **** that he could get away with it and boost "Montjeu" reputation for producing a Group 1 Miler.

Monteju has probably produced the worst Group 1 winning miler of all history and it makes my blood boil that it's going to be used to market his stallion potential, it's ludicrous.
Click to expand...

Why would Coolmore bother to market his "stallion potential" when he's dead? Money better spent elsewhere. I'm not sure you can call it potential when he's a proven sire? His AEI is 3.21 and he's produced 35 group one winners....
 
Back
Top