The Road To The 2012 Champion Hurdle

Very spare so far. It is such opportunities you look out for though.

These are the only two I've backed for the Champion Hurdle so far.

I've backed Captain Chris for the Champion Chase earlier in the year and Long Run and Denman for the Gold Cup. Also a little on Sprinter Sacre (Arkle).

These are not necessarily the ones I'll end up with, I'll fill in the gaps as the opportunities arise.
 
Steve your instincts have been proven to be good in the main but you'd want to take the instinct that told you to back Binocular outside for a good thrashing.
 
I think he may surprise you. I was very bullish on him in the Champion Hurdle before last and if he had taken part on that form last time I feel he would have won, or at least been in the first two. He is still only 7 which people tend to forget and has a best rating in the low 170s (comparable with the short-priced favourite that has suspensory problems).

To me he seems better value than HF (at 12/1) and unless his stablemate beats him I'm scratching around for credible opposition.

...I'll forgive you for "in the main".;)
 
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SteveM said:
The Champion Hurdle market could be looking very wrong very shortly. I have to go with my instincts... I've been out this morning to back Spirit Son and Binocular.
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I have backed Spirit Son today also.Details are very sketchy aout HF,not giving much away are they.
 
SteveM said:
At 14/1 (now gone) and 12/1 I'm happy to find out. Henderson may well have the winner there somewhere.
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the form book already tells you though imo..20/1 or 50/1..price makes no difference to me tbh..same amount of £ coming back

14/1 isn't a good price to be fair...most of them are 4/1 just to get to the race fit..thats without factoring in the form chance on top
 
EC1 said:
the form book already tells you though imo..20/1 or 50/1..price makes no difference to me tbh..same amount of £ coming back

14/1 isn't a good price to be fair...most of them are 4/1 just to get to the race fit..thats without factoring in the form chance on top
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"To be fair" I'm happy to take 14s or 12s... he's as low as 8/1 elsewhere. Apart from Binocular I can't see much else to worry him. (I'm thinking Oscar Whisky would have claims, but he may run in the World Hurdle rather than this) and I'd be astonished if Peddlers backtracked to this after jumping so well. Zarkander, maybe, but probably a little young yet.
 
I am very hopeful Spirit Son will win the 2012 Champion Hurdle, and will be backing him every week for the rest of the season to March, as long as his price allows.
 
Hurrican Fly out til at least December.Price has taken a walk for the CH.With hindsight 6/4 crazy price for a horse with such past problems
 
Lets quickly look at the current contenders. My thoughts as follows:

Hurricane Fly - the one to beat, but too short. Must be evens alone to even turn up bearing in mind his record on that front the past 3 years.
Zarkandar - won the Triumph, but I'm not taken with him myself. Grandouet had his measure until unluckily brought down at Aintree, and Henderson's yard would be pretty sure on Spirit Son being better than Grandouet.
Oscars Well - slightly unlucky at Cheltenham, and looked to have the race won lto before blowing up, but doesn't quite have the ability for me to win a CH (though should be targeted at it)
Binocular - his time has passed, imho
Brampour - for me, the type of horse who will do better in handicap company than graded races, though this is a belief as opposed to something I can back up, what with him being still unexposed

Behind this lot are Rite of Passage (not a great hurdler and unlikely to be targeted at this), Casual Conquest (yet to run over hurdles) and Oscar Whisky (will go for races over further).

I think Spirit Son is a machine. His win at Aintree was the best piece of novice form from last year, and he will only get better. He only has Hurricane Fly to beat, and I think he will, and that's even if Hurricane fly turns up.

12/1 is the best antepost value you will get this season for Cheltenham.
 
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...like I've said I don't see much to trouble Spirit Son either other than Binocular or HF (if he makes the race in the form he was in last time, which seems a big if). Zarkander is decent but young and has a lot to find.

Horses of the calibre of Oscar Whisky and Peddler's Cross would be a threat to anything, but surely their targets are elsewhere.
 
If HF is to have an injury at any stage of the season, it's better he has it now. He's not a horse that needs races to get primed. If he's back in work after xmas it could nearly be a blessing that he'd have missed the first half of the season.

All it comes down to is on the day, and if on the day he lines up ready to go, you can have whatever price you like on anything else. I'd be quaking in my boots if i was against him.

Obviously though, his price propped up some inflated prices about the other main rivals, and I agree Hamm, 12/1 about Spirit Son is big.

As a fan of the Hurricane, i wouldn't be too put off. I've always feared he's more likely to not get there in March than get there, but I had envisaged worst case scenario, being that he get an injury after a couple of races during the season. This time 4 months this could be the best thing that happened to the horse and connections.
 
Hamm said:
12/1 is the best antepost value you will get this season for Cheltenham.
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...don't forget Binocular is the same price. There may not be much between them imo. I prefer both to HF though even if he does line up. To me splitting the bet between the pair looks the right thing to do.
 
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