The Road To The 2012 Champion Hurdle

Zenyatta said:
Henderson seemed pretty convinced (admittedly without saying as much definitively, for obvious reasons) that Spirit Son was the best of his. I find it very very hard indeed to believe that he has the good fortune to have more than one horse capable of challenging Hurricane Fly in his yard at the same time.
Click to expand...

Spirit Son may well have the potential to be the best, but Binocular is already a 170+ performer, although he does need to recapture that form. The thing with Binocular is that he only has one or two good runs in him a season, due to muscle enzyme problems, that's why it was such a disappointment that he missed the Festival last year, just as he was peaking.
 
Last edited:
SteveM said:
Looking forward to seeing Starluck back over hurdles on Saturday (wherever he appears). He’s been a good test for the likes of Binocular and Peddler’s Cross in the past. A 160 hurdler, not impossible at seven that he’s still on the upgrade and could yet be an interesting outsider at Cheltenham.
Click to expand...

Mods, move this to the jokes thread, please.
 
He's not overexposed (11 hurdles starts to date and he's won or been placed in nine of them) and still quite young (and a good age to do well in the Champion) and may well be capable of better than 160. It wouldn't be out of the question that he could run into a place in the big one I reckon.
 
Last edited:
The only importance of Starluck in the context of this thread is to justify the ratings given to Binocular....
 
OTB said:
this is the funniest thread ive read. well done to all. STARLUCK? BINI? :D:D:D:D:D
Click to expand...

I've been against the tide before:

15th March 2010, 11:57 AM Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveM
I'm beginning to think Binocular is the only bet to have now and that he'll come away from them.

[returned at 9/1 SP]

15th March 2010, 12:05 PM
Sheikh: Whisky on your Corn flakes Steve?


...I had a good laugh at that.:D
 
Last edited:
I think Steve is right to question Hurricane Fly.A great horse and I mean great but this is Cheltenham and backing odds on shots won't make you rich.
 
LUKE said:
I think Steve is right to question Hurricane Fly.A great horse and I mean great but this is Cheltenham and backing odds on shots won't make you rich.
Click to expand...

Agree Luke- but then again I suppose it depends on your perception of value?? One man's meat..and all that. I'll not back the Fly at current prices, but if he turns up he'll skate in.
 
Here's some food for thought and a posssible little earner for the brave who don't mind tthrowing away a couple of quid.

I was having a chat about Soldatino who by all accounts is on target for the Betfair Hurdle.

It looks like Champion Hurdle hurdle 3rd fav Zarkandar and many peoples fancy to win the race will also be in the line up at Newbury..

Soldatino and Zakandar both won Triumph Hurdles and if the latter is a Champion Horse you would expect him to win with his head in his chest.

Nicky Henderson however has different ideas and is Soldatino were to win easily beating Zarkandar with the rest well beaten what then?

I would imagine Grandouet's owner Simon Munir would want him to join his stable companion and take his chance in the Champion Hurdle.

A bit pie in the sky but Sodatino is well fancied for the Betfair Hurdle and could very well win the race.

There's 56 quid been matched at 1000 and there's 8 quid left and if by any chance he did win and was available to lay at 14 eg a guranteed profit of over 560 pound would be there for the taking.

Bit pie in the sky but we've had a few quid on each just for the hell of it.

I should add, to my knowledge Nicky has never mentioned him running at Cheltenham and this is just speculation
 
Last edited:
LUKE said:
I think Steve is right to question Hurricane Fly.A great horse and I mean great but this is Cheltenham and backing odds on shots won't make you rich.
Click to expand...


I wouldn't dream of backing odds on at Cheltenham..but he is an odds on shot..because there isn't a weak spot..LH/RH..slow pace/fast pace..fast ground/slow ground

if someone has a good reason for him not be odds on then i haven't read it yet

clutching at straws re Binocular and all those he has absolutely buried won't change the fact he is 10 lb clear of the field..in winning form and has been for somewhile..can run off any race condition

Binocular ..even at his best is 5 length inferior to him imo..and his best is only seen once in a while

anyone who makes their own tissue can only have him at odds on..or there is something wrong with how you do your tissue imo
 
SteveM - agree Starluck is an interesting runner. I was surprised they went down the chasing route with him and will be interesting to see him back on Saturday. Still only 7 I've actually got a bit of interest in him as don't think he's completely without hope.
 
Bobbyjo said:
The only importance of Starluck in the context of this thread is to justify the ratings given to Binocular....
Click to expand...

The rating given to Binocular was well earned, he was a first class Champion Hurdle winner every bit as impressive as Hurricane Fly was last year.

The horse has since suffered from loss of form possibly due to the alergies he had /has.

As I said earlier he beat a higher rated horse than Hurricane Fly did at the time of their races plus AP McCoy said he was the fastest jumper of a hurdler he had ever sat on and desribed him as brilliant.

AP has also been quick to say he hasn't felt right on several occasions.

No doubt about it he was a top class hurdler but he's had major health problems and the defeats he has suffered since winning the big one say little about how good he was or could still be if bouncing back
 
I agree but there were a lot of nagging doubts about Hurricane Fly for that race. WM was saying he was lazy looking in the paddock' He drifted like a barge and wasn't his usual self during the race falling alseep at the back of the field. Ruby was scared to ask him to pick up his bit but said when he gave him a squezze he was fine.

The thing is the race was shockingly bad. The second hasn't raised a gallop all year and he reveresed form with Thousand Stars who collapsed in a heap after a 3rd last blunder.

He looked good but that's not hard to do is everything else runs no sort of race.

I'd still make him odds on but I would neither back him or lay him until the day of the race and saw him bouncing round the paddck like his old self.

Too may little things to be backing him AP IMO
 
Tanlic said:
I'd still make him odds on but I would neither back him or lay him until the day of the race and saw him bouncing round the paddock like his old self.
Click to expand...

To play Devil's advocate, could you not also argue that this is evidence of potential big improvement. He was very keen throughout the Champion Hurdle last season. If he has learnt to settle this season then it is perfectly plausible that he will be even better this season.

Just a thought.
 
Tanlic said:
I should add, to my knowledge Nicky has never mentioned him running at Cheltenham and this is just speculation
Click to expand...

If he were to win very impressively then it is by no means beyond the realm of possibility. For example, if he were to win as many expect Zarkandar to, then he might suddenly put himself into the picture.

Do I think it is likely? No. Is it worth a very small investment at 1000.00? Possibly.

He isn't entered though so participation must be highly doubtful. Admittedly as his price would suggest.
 
Last edited:
Tanlic said:
The rating given to Binocular was well earned, he was a first class Champion Hurdle winner every bit as impressive as Hurricane Fly was last year.
Click to expand...

Timeform had him below 170, which seems about right. Considering the race was run to suit and McCoy kicked for home early enough beating Zaynar by 9L cannot equate to a very high rating.
 
Tanlic said:
The rating given to Binocular was well earned, he was a first class Champion Hurdle winner every bit as impressive as Hurricane Fly was last year.
Click to expand...

All Champion Hurdlers are top-class (on the day) by definition.

No-one is disputing Binocular was very good that day. It's the suggestion that he was every bit as good as Hurricane Fly that is the source of the dispute. There has been no evidence (and it's pretty much a truism as far as I'm concerned) before or since, that the form of Binocular's Champion Hurdle is robust. If a 172 is accurate, then it is completely anomalous when set against almost every other of Binocular's outings. Hurricane Fly's form, on the other hand, has been franked time and again.

The horse has since suffered from loss of form possibly due to the alergies he had /has.
Click to expand...

Boo-fkin-hoo. Cause is irrelevant - effect is what matters.

As I said earlier he beat a higher rated horse than Hurricane Fly did at the time of their races plus AP McCoy said he was the fastest jumper of a hurdler he had ever sat on and desribed him as brilliant.
Click to expand...

Selective quoting of McCoy. He has also said in a very straightforward manner, that Hurricane Fly is a better horse.

AP has also been quick to say he hasn't felt right on several occasions.
Click to expand...
Again, cause and effect.

No doubt about it he was a top class hurdler but he's had major health problems and the defeats he has suffered since winning the big one say little about how good he was or could still be if bouncing back
Click to expand...

And what about all those other performances? As I said, his Champion Hurdle is a complete anomaly. He hasn't gotten to within a half-stone of that rating in every other run he's had.
 
Tanlic said:
I agree but there were a lot of nagging doubts about Hurricane Fly for that race. WM was saying he was lazy looking in the paddock' He drifted like a barge and wasn't his usual self during the race falling alseep at the back of the field. Ruby was scared to ask him to pick up his bit but said when he gave him a squezze he was fine.

The thing is the race was shockingly bad. The second hasn't raised a gallop all year and he reveresed form with Thousand Stars who collapsed in a heap after a 3rd last blunder.

He looked good but that's not hard to do is everything else runs no sort of race.

I'd still make him odds on but I would neither back him or lay him until the day of the race and saw him bouncing round the paddck like his old self.

Too may little things to be backing him AP IMO
Click to expand...

Hurricane looked alert and relaxed at Leopardstown, I wouldn't say there was anything wrong with him, far from it. His trainer did not say he looked lazy, rather that he wasn't fidgeting in his usual way. Ruby said he was scared to ask for an effort too soon for fear the horse would give too much rather than too little.

The race was not as bad as you think, and certainly not shockingly bad. Thousand Stars probably did go off a bit too fast, got tired and hit the third last. He returned to the parade ring with a cut on a hind leg. But Oscars Well is a very good horse and there will be other days when he finishes in front of Thousand Stars. His stable had been out of form in recent months but they had three winners at the weekend. Nevertheless Hurricane was in a class of his own.
 
Last edited:
As Grasshopper has pointed out, AP said very recently on RTE that Binocular had proved disappointing, and that Hurricane Fly's Champion Hurdle was better.
 
EC1 said:
HF is still on paper an odds on shot though
Click to expand...

The race is run at Prestbury Park though, not on paper... and on paper Binocular is more or less his equivalent. Neither is Binocular the only one to beat this time, there will be a handful with chances on the day. Hurricane Fly is not an odds-on shot on paper or in real life. Better horses than HF have had easier fields to beat and not done so.;)
 
Last edited:
SteveM said:
The race is run at Prestbury Park though, not on paper... and on paper Binocular is more or less his equivalent.
Click to expand...
i give up.

Neither is Binocular the only one to beat this time, there will be a handful with chances on the day. Hurricane Fly is not an odds-on shot on paper or in real life. Better horses than HF have had easier fields to beat and not done so.;)
Click to expand...

It's self-evident that any horse in a race has 'a chance' - it doesn't need pointing out, Steve. But we convert those 'chances' into probabilities/odds, don't we? A price of 4/5 is not reflective of infallability, is it?

I look forward to seeing your list of horses who are;

A) better than Hurricane Fly
B) have faced better Champion Hurdle fields than this, and
C) were turned over at odds on
 
Much like Grassy, I can;t understand how anyone can hang their hat on that CH rating. If it is was the same field in the Christmas hurlde he would have got 165. It was only cos it was cheltenham. The rating should have been downgraded afterwards when it became apparent the whole field was absolute gash.
 
so if grandouet doesnt go it will be another excuse for the doubters to claim its a poor CH with Hurricane wins without as much as a tap. The horse just cannae win! "fragile" "poor races" "irish form poor" Its all utter POPPYCOCK. He's the best we've seen since Isty and of that there is no doubt. Enjoy the feckin horse!!
 
Back
Top