The Road to the 2012 King George

EC1 said:
at least i back up my views..unlike you
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...I don't back up my views?!... I'd take issue with that. Given a decent pace in the KG Long Run ought to be able to bring his stamina into play. I have also explained in detail why I believe it is too early to say this horse is in decline. All you have done to support your case is point to his last two runs. Something I believe to be superficial in the extreme.
 
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granger said:
HDB leaning towards Leopardstown at Christmas with Sizing Europe according to tomorrows RP

Disappointing
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i had backed sizing at 14/1 ew weeks ago. as soon as barney clifford said he expected soft ground for the meeting and the weather turning even more wet since then (and another bad forecast for this week) i laid it off on betfair. i was surprised when pricewise tipped him up.

interesting to see mullins says there is a 50% chance of SDC coming over. if he does i think either him or long run will be my pick in the end.

not sure of cue card at the distance/soft ground making it a stamina test.

not sure track suits al ferof.

grands crus could be interesting e/w at current price but if he becomes a confirmed runner would probably go down to something unbackable after his recent woes.

don't think finians rainbow will run with the conditions.

only other one i could see putting in a decent effort is riverside theatre but will have a bit to find from his last KG run. guess he could have improved since then and went well FTO last season.
 
SteveM said:
...I don't back up my views?!... I'd take issue with that. Given a decent pace in the KG Long Run ought to be able to bring his stamina into play. I have also explained in detail why I believe it is too early to say this horse is in decline. All you have done to support your case is point to his last two runs. Something I believe to be superficial in the extreme.
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that was a long time coming :)

judging a horse on recent history..imo is better than using form he may not be capable of from further back

to be fair thats a whole thread on its own..recent form..or older ..to judge what a horse will do in future

the way i see it is that at the high level when a horse starts showing form below best there is usually a reason

it may be that LR will suddenly bounce back...it might be he is no better than the last two runs now...% call could be 50-50 on that alone.

i don't like following horses over cliffs if i can help it..i know you keep faith longer..but we differ on that...its just we both view form differently.
 
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JamesRB said:
not sure track suits al ferof.
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agree..i wouldn't touch Al Ferof at kempton..whereas at Cheltenham he could be a GC winner

his finishing time from two out in the Supreme earmarked him as something special on that course and Kempton is unlikely to bring that out in him.

he loves the climb there
 
It possibly is too early to say Long Run is in decline......but then again, time is marching on now, and the case against is reasonably robust, as it could probably be argued that he didn't achieve all that much in his last three runs (last KG no better than average from a form-perspective, in my view, but assuredly a great race for the soul).

LR has had a lot of racing for a young horse. He's been on the go in top-company for a long time, and seems unlikely to suddenly recapture the kind of 2010 form which would put distance between him and his contemporaries.

Given his relatively short-price for the King George, I'd have to be looking to lay him; though I'd seek to do so in the place-market, as I reckon he will blow completely, if he doesn't go very close.

I think 3m at Kempton is sharp enough for him these days, and might take a different view in the Gold Cup market, if a poor KG display saw his price pushed-out to, say, something up beyond 14/1.
 
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Grasshopper said:
I think 3m at Kempton is sharp enough for him these days, and might take a different view in the Gold Cup market, if a poor KG display saw his price pushed-out to, say, something up beyond 14/1.
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agree ...on his last two runs he looks a plodder to me ..less chance in the KG than a GC.

not for me anyway..yer pays yers money etc
 
There's been a lot of debate about

Is Long Run perhaps not as good as he was?

Will Cue Card stay?

Will Al Ferof act on The course?

There's one missing, Captain Chris.

Captain Chris was never quite himself last year but put up a good effort when running on in the Ryanair.

The fact he jumped For Non Stop Ghizao and Finians Rainbow silly at Ascot seems to have gone over most people's heads. Most likely because his jumping has been scary in the past but he never gave a hint of humping right and actually went slightly left at a few

At Ascot he hugged the rail where the ground was at it's worse. The others were racing in the center of the course looking for the best ground. Despite that he has outpointed 3 very useful horses.

He was well beaten in this last season but he's much better than that run IMO

If he turns up and is double figures on Boxing Day I'm going to back him. If he puts it in and jumps like he did at Ascot he could quite easily win.
 
There's been a lot of debate about

Is Long Run perhaps not as good as he was?

Will Cue Card stay?

Will Al Ferof act on The course?

There's one missing, Captain Chris.

Captain Chris was never quite himself last year but put up a good effort when running on in the Ryanair.

The fact he jumped For Non Stop Ghizao and Finians Rainbow silly at Ascot seems to have gone over most people's heads. Most likely because his jumping has been scary in the past but he never gave a hint of humping right and actually went slightly left at a few

At Ascot he hugged the rail where the ground was at it's worse. The others were racing in the center of the course looking for the best ground. Despite that he has outpointed 3 very useful horses.

He was well beaten in this last season but he's much better than that run IMO

If he turns up and is double figures on Boxing Day I'm going to back him. If he puts it in and jumps like he did at Ascot he could quite easily win.
 
Captain Chris is a non-staying mutt. I wouldn't back him with stolen money.

PS. He was copping between 6-10lbs at Ascot, and came out third-best at the weights.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Captain Chris is a non-staying mutt. I wouldn't back him with stolen money.

PS. He was copping between 6-10lbs at Ascot, and came out third-best at the weights.
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He also hugged the rail the whole way round to stifle his inadequate jumping, and beat 2 overrated handicappers by not very far.
Wouldn't back him with Grassy's stolen money.
 
6s on RT looks a very good bet now, with AF out, and SE probably staying in Ireland. When you consider he is third fav and Captain Chris is next in the betting, its hard to see him out of the first 3.
 
If Sir Des Champs stays at home then I'm struggling to see anything beating Long Run and the 11/4 looks too big, Cue Card looks to me to be the main danger if he stays and I'm on him already at double figure prices so I've had a little play on a long run, teaforthree Christmas double to pay for the pressies :D
 
reet hard said:
He also hugged the rail the whole way round to stifle his inadequate jumping, and beat 2 overrated handicappers by not very far.
Wouldn't back him with Grassy's stolen money.
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Unless someone has stolen the railing at Kempton they have them there to if need be.

Captain Chris was considered one of the best prospects in training in his hurdling days and confirmed that promise by winning a very decent Arkle with the likes of Finians Rainbow and the consistent Medermit taking part.

He ended his season with another Grade 1 win in Ireland and looked like landing the spoils yet again on his return in the Haldon Gold cup until he totally misjudged the last and landing smack dab in the middle of the last fence.

He want straight to Kempton after that and his confidence was clearly gone. When Kauto Star quickened the pace down back straight he put in 3 terrible jumps losing ground at each fence but despite that turning for home he looked the most likely to be the one to give Kauto Star the most to do. He had gotten to Long Run and was about to pass him when his efforts to get on terms and the jumping errors took their toll and he stopped to nothing exhausted.

Apart from that RJ held him up out the back door that day as it was his first try at the trip. He's not the quickest of the mark and needs to be up there tracking the leaders to be seen at his best.

His jumping had completely gone to pot at Kempton and there was worse to come when he never jumped a fence in his next run at Cheltenham in the Argento.

He faired a lot better in the Ryanair but some deliberate jumping saw him lose his place and he never managed to get back on terms but ran on really well in the closing stages.

The fact he did would lead me to believe that it was the reasons put forward for him stopping at kempton and nothing to do with his ability to see out the 3 mile trip.

Whether he has spent time with Yogi Breisner or they have simply been giving him some confidence boosting schooling themselves I don't know but after a faultless round of jumping maybe we will see the real Capatin Chris at Kempton.

If he can keep his jumping together he may well be the one to give Long Run the most to think about. I am prepared to give him that chance.

There's a bit more to analysing a horses performance than sticking your head in the sand your ar$e in the air and saying he's a non-staying mutt Grassy you should try it some time:lol:
 
I think Captain Chris will stay 3m round Kempton. He stayed on like a train in the Ryanair. Not sure he's good enough though.
 
I expect Cue Card to gallop round, ping every fence and win on the bridle. LR will hit every fence. FNS will run on for 2nd. :)
 
God help me I'm looking at Grands Crus now. I can't have Long Run at less than 3/1, RT isn't good enough to win a KG and I'm unconvinced about Cue Card staying.
 
Euronymous said:
God help me I'm looking at Grands Crus now. I can't have Long Run at less than 3/1, RT isn't good enough to win a KG and I'm unconvinced about Cue Card staying.
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If you ignore his last run at Aintree where he pulled up RT’s four previous runs rate 172, 172, 172 and 171 (including a notable effort in the KG itself). Cue Card’s best run was his last run on 170. So saying that RT isn’t good enough undervalues RT. But for Long Run, he was good enough and has improved slightly since. There should be very little between RT and Cue Card and this pair look the main opposition to the favourite, with a couple of other notables set to bypass this.

Grand Crus Kempton form in beating Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth is almost up to this level (168), so you may be right in forgiving him two poor subsequent appearances, but I suspect something is up with him on the evidence of his reappearance.

I thought Al Ferof was the danger to Long Run and think LR remains value at 2/1 or bigger.

I think Henderson is looking good for this with either Long Run or Riverside and would have to prefer LR given a decent pace.
 
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I couldn't back Riverside Theatre.

Last season Nicky only cared about one thing for him and that was winning the Ryanair. It's the horses ultimate distance and I suspect the only reason he's going to Kempton is the owner has aspirations of winning the Gold Cup which he'll never do IMO. If Nicky had his own way he'd be doing nothing and following the same path as he did last season.

I'd imagine Buckley and Nicky had a conversation of; if he doesn't want to go Ryanair we will as Finian's Rainbow seems to be heading in that direction now.

I doubt if Nicky thinks either could beat Long Run so he'll be happy enough to go along with what the owners of the others want as he has the time to switch them if he has to

Cue Card has the advantage of never having run at the trip before which makes him a worth an interest. We've already seen Riverside's effort at 3 miles and he was totally outclassed and lucky to finish 2nd.

I backed Cue Card weeks ago for this because there's a chance he will stay and could win I sincerely doubt if RT can.
 
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