The Road to the 2012 King George

Riverside Theatre was being trained for this race last year, but wasn't considered recovered enough to run. As a horse who invariably goes well fresh, it's significant that he's been kept specifically for the KG again this season.
The Long Run who beat him 2 years ago was fresh from is first intensive period of training with Yogi Breisner, and maintained that form to win the Gold Cup the same season. However, he returned to his bad habits from the start of the following season, and has never been the same since.
The ground will have a major bearing this year (imo), and good ground or faster would favour RT and Cue Card, while Long Run's best chance would appear to be a mire, where he might just have time to compensate for his jumping frailties with his undoubted stamina.
 
Riverside is a serious player, I believe.

However, it would be disappointing if he were good enough to win this race.

I like Cue Card, and backed him a couple of months ago, but I am awaiting the race in hope rather than expectation. His current odds are around right given his profile, and the profile of his opposition.
 
I don't understand the relative negativity towards Riverside Theatre. He is top class, runs extremely well fresh, and as game as you like. He will love Kempton, and whilst I like Cue Card, he is currently a little below Riverside Theatre in terms of form shown to date (agree he is unexposed but that doesn't guarantee the needed improvement).

I still think on soft this is between Long Run and Riverside Theatre, with possibly juice in both their prices.

Captain Chris needs to start running now.

The real value could be in reading Willie Mullins comments - he rates Sir des Champs 50/50 to run in either the King George or the Lexus. If that is genuinely the case, what odds would he be if he turned up? If you consider his price relative to Long Run for the Gold Cup, you'd have to say he would be around a 7/2 shot on the day when confirmed. Wouldn't the evens to run and 7/2 on day of the race suggest the 12s should be taken?

Furthermore, if the ground was g/s or better, Kempton may get the vote for SDC as Mullins seemed to think soft was an issue the last day. In the case of this ground looking likely, the 12s may be the standout bet of the race.
 
Hamm said:
The real value could be in reading Willie Mullins comments - he rates Sir des Champs 50/50 to run in either the King George or the Lexus. If that is genuinely the case, what odds would he be if he turned up? If you consider his price relative to Long Run for the Gold Cup, you'd have to say he would be around a 7/2 shot on the day when confirmed. Wouldn't the evens to run and 7/2 on day of the race suggest the 12s should be taken?

Furthermore, if the ground was g/s or better, Kempton may get the vote for SDC as Mullins seemed to think soft was an issue the last day. In the case of this ground looking likely, the 12s may be the standout bet of the race.
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Gigginstown has First Lieutenant for the Lexus, but if the ground is very deep at Leopardstown it's a bit pointless running that horse there. I don't think the ground was the issue in the Durkan for SDC - he was just outclassed by a monster who had his conditions.
 
Cannot have Riverside Theatre at all. Long Run too short. Captain Chris is almost too short now as well at 8/1....Sir Des Champs won't travel....its a balls of a race from a punting point of view.
 
Surely if you think 3 of the front 4 in the betting are too short it must be a fantastic race punting-wise?
 
Hamm said:
I don't understand the relative negativity towards Riverside Theatre. He is top class, runs extremely well fresh, and as game as you like.
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Riverside Theatre does seem curiously underrated. I had my biggest place bet of the 2011 NH season on him when runner-up in this in this, splitting Long Run and Kauto Star. He also won a cracking renewal of the Ryanair.
 
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looks like my hard on for Finian's Rainbow has jogged on!

i cant help but think how ironic it would be if Nicholls won the King George with Kauto Stone, and his seasonal debut at Down Royal beating First Lieutenant looks strong with his subsequent 3rd in the Hennessy. Ruby now confirmed to take the ride & the 12's with VC look tempting.
 
SteveM said:
Riverside Theatre does seem curiously underrated. I had my biggest place bet of the 2011 NH season on him when runner-up in this in this, splitting Long Run and Kauto Star. He also won a cracking renewal of the Ryanair.
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It was a cracking renewal to watch. I don't think the quality was high though.
 
Hamm said:
Is Last Instalment a possible for the Lexus?
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He was initially but wasn't given an entry

344E Lexus S'chase (Grade 1) €93,000.00
( 3m - 5yo+ )[MAX 28] FIRST FORFEIT: 19-DEC-12
SUPPLEMENTARY ENTRY: 19-DEC-12
NHFrm
p878- 1 Across The Bay (DMcCain (in GB))
- . .................................. 11,10
3p//- 2 Albertas Run (JO'Neill (in GB)) - . ..... 11,10
-2332 3 Big Zeb(159) (CAMurphy) - . ............... 11,10
4 Bobs Worth (NHenderson (in GB)) -
. .................................... 11,10
-13f1 5 Bog Warrior(150) (AJMartin) - . .......... 11,10
6 Calgary Bay (MChannon (in GB)) - . . 11,10
45841 7 China Rock(165) (MFMorris) - . .......... 11,10
11p21 8 Cristal Bonus (FR) (PNicholls (in
GB)) - . ......................... 11,10
23423 9 First Lieutenant(159) (MFMorris) - . ... 11,10
11111 10 Flemenstar(168) (PCasey) - . ............. 11,10
12p46 11 Follow The Plan(157) (OMcKiernan)
- . .................................. 11,10
642p1 12 Forpadydeplasterer(150) (TCooper)
- . .................................. 11,10
1-311 13 Hidden Cyclone(153) (JJHanlon) - . ... 11,10
1-5f- 14 Midnight Chase (GB) (NMulholland
(in GB)) - . .................... 11,10
p1-7- 15 Pandorama (NMeade) - . ................... 11,10
515-1 16 Prince De Beauchene (FR)(155)
(WPMullins) - . ............. 11,10
-1130 17 Quel Esprit (FR)(158) (WPMullins) - . 11,10
113-3 18 Quito De La Roque (FR)(159)
(CAMurphy) - . ............. 11,10
52044 19 Realt Dubh(159) (NMeade) - . ............ 11,10
2-154 20 Rubi Light (FR)(161) (RAHennessy)
- . .................................. 11,10
1-111 21 Sir Des Champs (FR)(162)
(WPMullins) - . ............. 11,10
12111 22 Sizing Europe(171) (Hde Bromhead)
- . .................................. 11,10
23 The Giant Bolster (GB)
(DBridgwater (in GB))
- . .................................. 11,10
114/- 24 Thegreatjohnbrowne(141)
(NMeade) - . ................ 11,10
25 Tidal Bay (PNicholls (in GB)) - . ......... 11,10
-21/- 26 Weapon's Amnesty (CByrnes) - . ..... 11,10
27 Weird Al (DMcCain (in GB)) - ............ 11,10
Click to expand...
 
The obvious is staring us in the face guys. Long Run is at least half a stone better than the next best and a decent pace will suit him very well. Those not on already, get on.
 
SteveM said:
The obvious is staring us in the face guys. Long Run is at least half a stone better than the next best and a decent pace will suit him very well. Those not on already, get on.
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Long Run hasn't got half a stone in hand of Cue Cards last run though..26 lengths in front of a 157 horse...35 lengths + 1stone better than a 141 horse.

Cue Card has always looked better over further imo..his breeding cries out that 3m would be a sinch

he'll do for me
 
SteveM said:
The obvious is staring us in the face guys. Long Run is at least half a stone better than the next best and a decent pace will suit him very well. Those not on already, get on.
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He is, Steve - if you're prepared to believe he'll recapture a level of form that is almost two years old.

I can understand why people would want to back him, but the more I think about it, the more I think that 2010 form was the exception, rather than the rule. As I said earlier in the thread, LR has had a lot of racing in a short space of time. His KG/GC wins came in his 9th and 10th starts over fences; which would be getting in the window for a good second-season novice to be at or near his peak - especially one with a further eight starts in hurdles to his name.

We're now two years, five starts, and no wins further down the line, and LR hasn't reached anywhere near the heights of that Gold Cup win in any of those outings.

Given his overall profile, a degree of regression - whilst not exactly everyday - isn't entirely extraordinary. And the regression, for what it is, isn't exactly calamitous anyway, as he's clearly still capable of top-class form. What he doesn't have (or more accurately, what there's no recent evidence to support) is a half-stone in hand of his contemporaries. He is one of several in with a chance, but with less scope to improve.

He is very-much vulnerable at Kempton, imo.
 
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Long Run also needs to run to his mark as he hasn't got near in his last few runs.

Edit: posted at the same time as Grassy... So I'm agreeing with him, albeit succinctly.
 
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