The class variation at the top of NH racing can vary quite markedly compared with Flat horses.
Most accept that 126 is the benchmark for a genuine G1 winner and the superlatives start flying when anything get close to 130, more so when it goes beyond. Once every two or three years we get 130+ types.
Over the jumps, 168 is deemed up to winning Grade 1 races but every year there are dozens of horses rated 170+. Almost every year there is a 180 or more. It's only once every decade or so we get 190s, but that's still a lot more often than we get 140 types on the Flat. Maybe there's a problem with the NH scale.
Al Ferof won the PP off 159. On my figures he ran to 174. That, on the face of it, shouldn't be good enough to win an average King George or Gold Cup. On the other hand, he's young and obviously on a curve. How steep the curve is we won't know until his next run or two. If that next run is in the King George and you think he can win, you're basically betting that he is still on that curve.
I might want more evidence than that before committing in his favour.
When it comes to rating Grade 1 chasers I tend to ignore them completely and look at the horse, the course, the conditions and opposition. Take Kauto for example he could run anywhere from 191 down to 172 when beating Neptune Collonges only a neck in Denman's Gold Cup or even worse whatever rating you want to give him for beating What A Friend 156 a nose in Long Run's Gold Cup.
My worry with Al ferof is he hit's flat spots......Go back to the Supreme and watch how much ground Sprinter Sacre and the others gained when they quickened after the 3rd last. Ruby must have thought all chance had gone he was so slow to pick up.
He has done exactly the same thing over fences most notably in the Victor Chandler. Ruby was consistently niggling at him every time there was a slight injection of pace to keep him in touch. He was also losing a length or so on the turn and Ruby did well to get into a challenging position but it took so much out of him his effort was short lived.
In the Arkle he tried to match strides with Cue card and manged to get to the front when Ruby pushed him into the lead but Joe Tizzard never batted an eylid and just let him go as it was way too soon. How much him topping that fence made is hard to say but when Sprinter Sacre went Joe still never moved until a fence later and Al Ferof couldn't even keep tabs on him.
He's then gone to Aintree given a soft lead and had only gone a mile and Ruby was having little pokes at him. He even lost ground on his stable companions on the sharp turns and when the pace was stepped up he went totally flat in exactly the same way he had at Cheltenham.
You could say the distance was too short for him in the VC and the course too sharp at Aintree but in the King George they don't exactly hang about and one thing you have to do is travel or your chances are nil. You only need look back to Imperial Commander to realize making up lost ground is near impossible.
The Paddy Power was run in testing conditions with nothing in a hurry to be cracking on which was ideal for him. but this horse has serious problems when it comes to tackling top notchers on decent ground. He totally lacks the tactical speed to keep in a race traveling and his jumping is definitely suspect when he's out of his comfort zone.
There's more chance of Kauto Star making a comeback straight out of a field and winning another King George than this fellow has of winning one unless the ground turns out to be very soft or even heavy.
He was in his element at Cheltenham in a tacky bog and that's where PN should be trying to place him. If I were PN he'd miss the King George and head to straight to Ireland for the Lexus where with luck he'd get the conditions that slow down everything else to his pace.
Rated 168 178 190 it wouldn't make any difference to him I reckon he'll hate Kempton
in.