The Road to the 2012 King George
- Thread starter Bar the Bull
- Start date
links781
Journeyman
Sorry Steve but for me he has jumping deficiencies,he's not fluent.was out jumped today.why oh why didn't they try and make it ino a **** fight up front rather thn playing ino SC hands.Everytime it gets beaten it's down to the fitness issues.sorry that just doesn't wash with me.I backed him today on the premise that it would take something very good to beat him.Granted SC jumped around well but no pressure put on it whatsoever.soft win for me.
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links781
Journeyman
The Irish horses looks head and shoulders above in the GC field
EC1
On a break
but has no finish..so will always place in races but always be swamped
He's not the greatest of jumpers it's true although he's far from dreadful and he more than makes up for it between them. The horse has a lot of quality and his drifting price makes him value in the KG.
EC1
On a break
i haven't judged his whole career..i've decided that in future i don't see him winning big races as he doesn't finish..just plods on like he did today and in the GC..a bit of a pattern emerging
he should have eaten these today.
the GC and KG are history..they won't affect the future if he is only capable of plodding on.
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EC1
On a break
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Cant see how Long Run can get back to where he was two years ago.
That he is being beaten by 6yo when he had looked like being the dominant force in staying chases when winning the Gold Cup. Need to make a lot of excuses for the horse to convince yourself that he is the horse he was.
He has won the Aon against a tenderly ridden Burton Port since. He might win the Aon again.
That he is being beaten by 6yo when he had looked like being the dominant force in staying chases when winning the Gold Cup. Need to make a lot of excuses for the horse to convince yourself that he is the horse he was.
He has won the Aon against a tenderly ridden Burton Port since. He might win the Aon again.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,857
Long Run was the final leg of a win treble for me today (Balder Success 8/13 and Oscar Whisky 4/5 were the other two) and I really felt he should have been favourite. The 7/1 return struck me as a right good value punt.
I wouldn't fault the ride SWC gave him. Last year he tried to jump with Kauto Star and couldn't do it. I felt the Charlie Hall fell apart late on, flattering SC to a degree with Wayward Prince a bit close between the last two and his weakening disguising the fact that SC wasn't pulling away from the third and fourth. I felt if SWC could get Long Run into a rhythm he could pick SC up at will in the straight. He fiddled a few but there were no errors that had me thinking it had cost him the race. And he was close enough three out if good enough. I don't think the horse we saw run away from Denman last year would have failed to get past SC given the proximity of TGB and WA.
Maybe that Gold Cup bottomed him. He could be more like The Fellow than some of the other top French imports. Right now he's looking more like L'Ami...
He certainly won't be entrusted with the anchor leg of a cert treble again!
I wouldn't fault the ride SWC gave him. Last year he tried to jump with Kauto Star and couldn't do it. I felt the Charlie Hall fell apart late on, flattering SC to a degree with Wayward Prince a bit close between the last two and his weakening disguising the fact that SC wasn't pulling away from the third and fourth. I felt if SWC could get Long Run into a rhythm he could pick SC up at will in the straight. He fiddled a few but there were no errors that had me thinking it had cost him the race. And he was close enough three out if good enough. I don't think the horse we saw run away from Denman last year would have failed to get past SC given the proximity of TGB and WA.
Maybe that Gold Cup bottomed him. He could be more like The Fellow than some of the other top French imports. Right now he's looking more like L'Ami...
He certainly won't be entrusted with the anchor leg of a cert treble again!
links781
Journeyman
It would have to be a double figure price for me to see it as value as only place money at best.The horse has no gears.
M
Marble
Guest
SteveM. Seems like we agree here. But was you not expecting the bookmakers to take a stronger view against him in the KG after today?
It seems like they have taken the same view as me and you in terms of going the relatively shortist price of 9/2. I thought someone would go a couple of points bigger. A good price if he turns out to be the winner all the same, but I'm interested if you think we will get bigger on the day as I do?
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M
Marble
Guest
Interesting post, Tan.
I love sizing but I still feel there is a point to prove in the 2 mile division, and I'd like to see him serve it up to the next Arkle...Sprinter Sacre.
I must fancy Long Run in the KG a fair bit to back against Sizing Europe, and he'd been the main danger for me if it was good ground.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
It was actually a far less demanding test because they went no gallop at all. Lack of stamina had nothing to due with his defeat.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Al Ferof will stay 3m. Will probably stay the Gold Cup trip. The question is whether he'll like Kempton.
Jumping's always been his problem, and though they looked to have it sorted for a short golden period when Yogi Breisner practically lived in his box, he has since regressed to type, and will never win anything worthwhile that isn't run in a bog and over a great distance of ground. Haydock's new fences don't take much jumping (0/30 fallers again today) yet he still managed to drag his back legs through a few and it was only his massive engine that kept him in contention. Tidal Bay mkII, imvho, and however, or by whomever, he is ridden unlikely to make the slightest difference.
SC was impressive, but he very much had his own way, and with connections of the 3rd adamant he'd need the run, still some way short of a top class performance.
Better form than the Amlin though, which wouldn't be worth a hatful of crabs, going forward.
Finian's all at sea on the ground, and For Non Stop not much better, yet still managed to get within 4l of the winner.
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Disagree with some of that Reet. Ruby had everything his own way in that race and that's just about the most stupid thing anyone can allow him to do when he's on a decent horse.
It's not like Long Run needs to be held up he travels well no matter whether he's in the lead or help up so why continue to allow SC a 3 or 4 length advantage and sit and wait for Ruby to kick from the front in the home straight?
Doesn't take a genius to work out Ruby's game plan nor does it take a genius to work out how to foil it.
I've defended Sam in the past but that was a woeful ride. Ruby's skills against Sam's lack of imagination won the day.
Granted Long Run has never run well first time out for Nicky but for once Sam should have done much better.
It's not like Long Run needs to be held up he travels well no matter whether he's in the lead or help up so why continue to allow SC a 3 or 4 length advantage and sit and wait for Ruby to kick from the front in the home straight?
Doesn't take a genius to work out Ruby's game plan nor does it take a genius to work out how to foil it.
I've defended Sam in the past but that was a woeful ride. Ruby's skills against Sam's lack of imagination won the day.
Granted Long Run has never run well first time out for Nicky but for once Sam should have done much better.
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Surely Al Ferof is short of top class? He won a Paddy Power which he was perfectly entitled to on form winning first time out as he did last season. He was beating 140 horses not top drawer chasers and was most likely more forward than any of them.
However when asked the question later in the season he was found out every time he ran. I think Al Ferof is close up there but lacks what it take to reach the top and I doubt if PN has much to work on with him in the improvement category..........sorta he is what he is, end of IMO.
In fact I don't reckon PN has a King George or Gold Cup horse in his yard. (BB aside) The season is just starting and like always most of the form so far probably isn't worth a bucket of manure.
But they tried challenging for the lead, at Haydock last year, and that just accentuated his jumping problems.
He always be an "if only" horse imo, and no matter who rides him, how he's ridden, his level of fitness, or without something to slow his opponents down markedly, his jumping problems are always going to surface, and he won't win anything worthwhile unless/until somebody sorts them.
As it stands, some of the best in the business have given their all, and he still can't arch his back well enough to clear a fence and get away from it, and until he does, he'll never be the horse he might be.
All imo, of course.
Just watched it. Very good run from Long Run, one or two sketchy jumps, but almost as good a seasonal reappearance as you could ask for. Fitness told in the end but nevertheless he is clearly most likely KG winner, with no Kauto, SC missing the race, assume the Irish big 2 stay at home. Can you really see 3 finishing ahead of him? I can't. 9/2 a cracking ew bet for almost only guaranteed stayer among market leaders.
And some on here formed their views a long time ago, and have seen nothing at all to change them.
ps The 'fitness' thing is bollox, and not at all congruent with the impression connections gave before the race.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
He won it off 158 on stamina sapping ground. He is unexposed at a trip and was at least ten pounds well in. Any further improvement when encountering 3m+ (pretty likely) puts him in the top class bracket.