The Road to the 2012 King George

Hamm said:
Just watched it. Very good run from Long Run, one or two sketchy jumps, but almost as good a seasonal reappearance as you could ask for. Fitness told in the end but nevertheless he is clearly most likely KG winner, with no Kauto, SC missing the race, assume the Irish big 2 stay at home. Can you really see 3 finishing ahead of him? I can't. 9/2 a cracking ew bet for almost only guaranteed stayer among market leaders.
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At least one horse will stay the trip and out jump him. It happened yesterday, it happened in last year's Gold Cup and King George. The big races he has won he beat a Kauto that wasn't right in the King George and a Denman who was well past his best in the Gold Cup. He's a decent horse but in a competitive race he will struggle against better jumping rivals.
 
Lets step back. SC and Kauto had form at 3m plus. He will this time be taking on unproven stayers in what could very well be testing conditions. They all have a lot more to prove than he does.

SE is one who i think could be a threat if the word good was in the going description.

You can keep Al Ferof.
 
Al Ferof
Sizing Europe
Finian's Rainbow
Cue Card

I agree that Long Run is a decent each way bet, his record in the race suggests he has excellent place claims. But I would expect at least one of the above quartet to stay the three miles and beat him.
 
Not sure there is a point in doing Long Run e/w, he'd be a win bet for me but I still think I will get a better price once the public conclude he's not up to it.

As I've already said the only danger would be a Sizing Europe on good ground. Can't have Al Ferof for the reasons everyone is stating.

But I also won't bother trying to persuade reet and euro about it, there mind is made up. Each to their own.
 
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Euronymous: So you or at least the BHA seem to think he could have carried 12st4lbs in the PP and still won or dead heated with Walkon?

He'll be top class when he beats a top class horse over fences and as of yet he simply has not.
 
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Q - g/s ground, who is most likely to stay 3m - SE or Cue Card? I think SE. Plus his jumping.

Is he a confirmed runner?
 
Tanlic said:
Euronymous: So you or at least the BHA seem to think he could have carried 12st4lbs in the PP and still won or dead heated with Walkon?

He'll be top class when he beats a top class horse over fences and as of yet he simply has not.
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No. The extra weight above 11st10 would have slowed him down, especially on soft ground. The PP was the first time he'd been in a competitive race with a decent amount of runners since the Supreme.

Your second point could easily have been made about Denman after his first Hennessy. It's true, but I'm confident it will happen.
 
Not yet. Whether we get good ground and whether he runs are both 'ifs' at present, though the former will obviously have a huge bearing on the latter.

I'd find it very hard to back against Sizing Europe, I love the horse.

I think he'll has his work cut out against LR though.
 
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I wouldn't hesitate to back him Martin if I thought he would stay because he's a better horse IMO than Long Run but staying is Long Runs game.....If it's good ground at Kempton I will back him though.

pS you know it's the first sign of madness talking to yourself the 2nd sign is answering:D
 
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Long run has started off racing very early in life hasn't he. Won about 15 races, often graded hurdles and chases in France before Nicky got him, as opposed to the legend that is Kauto Star, who got beat a few times in France and didn't have such a hard time.

What I'm saying is, this potential jumping issue he has may have been in his system since hacking up regularly as a 3 and 4 year old in France. I think Nicky Henderson said something not dissimilar to this last year when talking about the work Yogi was doing with him.

What I'm happy about is that I don't think he made any howlers yesterday, it was purely a momentum thing,losing a length at each fence - a chronic sign of tiredness I think.

And for the sake of not repeating myself thats all I shall say on this subject for the time being.:)

All I can say, good luck if your backing Al Ferof, you'll need it!
 
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Surely Al Ferof is short of top class? He won a Paddy Power which he was perfectly entitled to on form winning first time out as he did last season. He was beating 140 horses not top drawer chasers and was most likely more forward than any of them.

However when asked the question later in the season he was found out every time he ran. I think Al Ferof is close up there but lacks what it take to reach the top and I doubt if PN has much to work on with him in the improvement category..........sorta he is what he is, end of IMO.
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Al Ferof's former trainer Liz Doyle suggests that Dom Alco progeny tend to go best when fresh (see the article from Friday's Irish Independent that I posted on the New Trainers thread). I don't know how true that is but I've no reason to doubt it either.
 
Marb
If you think LR's tardiness was a fitness issue yesterday, I'd suggest you watch a re-run of last season's KG.
IIRC, he gained many lengths between fences for most of the last 1m - only to lose it again negotiating the next obstacle.
 
The class variation at the top of NH racing can vary quite markedly compared with Flat horses.

Most accept that 126 is the benchmark for a genuine G1 winner and the superlatives start flying when anything get close to 130, more so when it goes beyond. Once every two or three years we get 130+ types.

Over the jumps, 168 is deemed up to winning Grade 1 races but every year there are dozens of horses rated 170+. Almost every year there is a 180 or more. It's only once every decade or so we get 190s, but that's still a lot more often than we get 140 types on the Flat. Maybe there's a problem with the NH scale.

Al Ferof won the PP off 159. On my figures he ran to 174. That, on the face of it, shouldn't be good enough to win an average King George or Gold Cup. On the other hand, he's young and obviously on a curve. How steep the curve is we won't know until his next run or two. If that next run is in the King George and you think he can win, you're basically betting that he is still on that curve.

I might want more evidence than that before committing in his favour.
 
Hamm said:
Just watched it. Very good run from Long Run, one or two sketchy jumps, but almost as good a seasonal reappearance as you could ask for. Fitness told in the end but nevertheless he is clearly most likely KG winner, with no Kauto, SC missing the race, assume the Irish big 2 stay at home. Can you really see 3 finishing ahead of him? I can't. 9/2 a cracking ew bet for almost only guaranteed stayer among market leaders.
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Surely this is correct of Long Run's performance. I'm astonished by the knee-jerk reactions.
 
I have nil evidence to support this theory, but I am 100% convinced that Long Run's jumping would improve significantly under a professional jockey. That will likely never happen, rendering the horse a no-bet proposition in anything other than a genuine stamina test. I'm not convinced Kempton will provide sufficient a one.

Ruby rode SWC to sleep yesterday; the even tempo being all against Long Run who has never demonstrated a turn-of-foot. When SWC didn't take-up the running going out on the second circuit, I pretty-much guessed the horse's eventual fate; effectively done for toe early in the straight, and just staying-on without ever threatening. Whilst LR's jumping self-evidently did not help him yesterday, the race was lost largely through the jockey having a poor appreciation of the required race-tactics.

For me, Waley-Cohen just sits and then hopes the horse is good enough to get him there when he starts riding him out. And that's about it.

He might be a horse-man, but a jockey? I don't think so.
 
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Grassy
the even tempo being all against Long Run who has never demonstrated a turn-of-foot.
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Wouldn't be too sure about that, either.:)
Taking another look at last year's KG, LR made ground up on Kauto between 6 of the last 7 fences (and on the run in), only to lose all impetus by clouting the fences. Also won a KG and a Feltham some distance from home.
I've no evidence different to yours on the jockey's capabilities, but you'd think the Waley-Cohens would have been ill-advised to spend what must have been a fortune on Yogi training the horse to jump - if no one saw it as a problem.

Of course it could all just be my knee-jerk reaction - one that's taken a year or so to reach spasm.:lol:
 
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Desert Orchid said:
The class variation at the top of NH racing can vary quite markedly compared with Flat horses.

Most accept that 126 is the benchmark for a genuine G1 winner and the superlatives start flying when anything get close to 130, more so when it goes beyond. Once every two or three years we get 130+ types.

Over the jumps, 168 is deemed up to winning Grade 1 races but every year there are dozens of horses rated 170+. Almost every year there is a 180 or more. It's only once every decade or so we get 190s, but that's still a lot more often than we get 140 types on the Flat. Maybe there's a problem with the NH scale.

Al Ferof won the PP off 159. On my figures he ran to 174. That, on the face of it, shouldn't be good enough to win an average King George or Gold Cup. On the other hand, he's young and obviously on a curve. How steep the curve is we won't know until his next run or two. If that next run is in the King George and you think he can win, you're basically betting that he is still on that curve.

I might want more evidence than that before committing in his favour.
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the difference between flat and jumps should be about 35 lbs shouldn't it DO?..as in ratings are to 10.00 for the flat and 12.07 for jumps

if 130 is above average for the flat..then 175 should also be held in the same regard..which i think it is to be fair

i think over the last 6 or 7 years 180's have been thrown about a bit..particularly with such as Long Run who imo is and always has been at best a 175 ish horse.

compare the number of flat horses with a 126+ with the NH horses with 171+

anyone who has Timeform annuals for both codes.. could confirm how many of these there are each year
 
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Chasers & Hurdlers ratings:

2011/2012
179 Kauto Star
178 Long Run
175 Sprinter Sacre
174 Finian's Rainbow
172 Master Minded
172 Sizing Europe
170 Riverside Theatre

2010/2011
184 Long Run
175 Denman
175 Master Minded
172 Big Zeb
171 Sizing Europe
170 Imperial Commander

2009/2010
191 Kauto Star
182 Imperial Commander
181 Denman
 
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