The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Maruco said:
I reckon they'll go to Ireland at Christmas and duck the King George.

There are a number of possibilities that can explain his run yesterday. Not being as fit as Cue Card is the most likely. But it can't be ignored just how good Cue Card was, and even if he was in top form he may not have been good enough.

If you take the last two Gold Cup's literally and assume Cue Card had stood up and finished in a dead heat, on the numbers (back me up EC!), Cue Card in my opinion would have been around 5 lengths ahead of Coneygree. There's some assumption there with where CC would have finished. I'd think he may have won, where others would argue he would have been beaten. Either way I'd contest he'd have been wishing 5 lengths of the winner. In a match in March it would be Cue Card for me and it wouldn't need a moments more thought.

Other explanations for yesterday could be that Coneygree is not quite the same horse, he doesn't act in deep ground, he needs De Boinville, etc. It should also be considered that he could bounce next time. Alternatively he could be absolutely spot on. Given all those variables, for a horse that could go either forwards or backwards at Christmas, and in my opinion is more likely to go to Ireland, 6/1 for the King George is no betting proposition at all, and I'd rather take the price about Cue Card winning the bonus which I'd say is considerably more likely than Coneygree winning at Kempton.
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i think your post sort of sums up why i personally take racing day by day. Its hard enough doing that without the added lottery of where X will actually run in future.

I know you guys love the speculation...but isn't the race on the day hard enough to solve without the real guessing of a horse's actual targets?:)

Its like trying to work out what happened yesterday..lots of possible explanations there from Maruco..and thats when we have actually seen the race..what a conundrum the game is.

I would take the view that part of his run was fitness..re KP comments...it could be that he isn't the same horse..i don't really buy the deep ground as a factor

Worth bearing in mind..last year the official handicapper used the time of the handicap to put a figure on Cue Card..which is what i did..was surprised to see him do that as well

last year CC beat the handicap by just under 9 seconds...this year he beat it by 14..can't remember now if it was still raining at that point..but it highlights that CC was as good..if not better than last year...so to beat him after a layoff in that sort of time would have been one hell of a run by Coneygree

the jury is still out for me re Coneygree
 
just done a quick measure comparing the betfair to the handicap..start point the path on the bend after they start..then there again next time to finish..basically circuit times

Cue Card..1st circuit = 192 seconds
Cue Card 2nd circuit = 181 seconds

3 faces west first circuit = 198 seconds
3 faces west second circuit = 190 seconds

looking at that..i'd be saying CC's performance is pretty awesome..which depends on if it was still raining..anyone who was there if they could confirm if it rained between those races would be helpful?..thanks

if on same surface..then i won't be opposing Cue Card this season..if we are conservative and say that 3 faces west is a 140 horse..then Cue Card has absolutely mullered him on both circuits..in total its fair to say that CC is worth the 14 seconds in superiority..at this distance on that ground its fair to say that about 3.4lbs per second is valid...its probably fair to put a mid 180's figure to what CC achieved.

clearly i imagine that the handicap may have been run on a more testing surface..but all the same...there ain't a horse in training would have beat CC yesterday running those circuit times

he is as awesome as ever by the looks of it...any horse in training..that was not 100%..could not have done those times..no wonder Coneygree struggled..anything would have..bar a Sprinter Sacre 3 mile type

CC to me is nothing like the horse he was before the op..then he was clearly above average..and sometimes you didn't see it..now he is churning out unreal performances...well this one is on another level to even what he has achieved so far in his great career..this now looks a monster..10lb+ in excess of last years Betfair win..which using the times was a 175 performance. This is apart from when KS won that pace collapse KG..one of the best 3 mile performances of the last X years i would say

IF the surface was the same when the betfair was run compared to handicap...was anyone at Haydock?..Euro?
 
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All speculation, but an interesting possible scenario nonetheless, voiced by Jimbo on The Forum this morning

Lets say Cue Card wins the KG, then it goes without saying he'll try for the £1 million bonus for winning The CGC.

Now imagine Thistlecrack getting his act together and arriving at the CGC as favourite.

Tizzard then has a horse from his own stable who could possibly deny Cue Card the £1 million bonus. Does he "do a Willie" and switch Thistlecrack to another race at the last minute or does he run both in case Cue Card has a mishap ? Would there be any....erm.... instructions to TS if they were both approaching the line in front, and would TS listen :ninja:

All good fun :whistle:
 
Diamond Geezer said:
All speculation, but an interesting possible scenario nonetheless, voiced by Jimbo on The Forum this morning

Lets say Cue Card wins the KG, then it goes without saying he'll try for the £1 million bonus for winning The CGC.

Now imagine Thistlecrack getting his act together and arriving at the CGC as favourite.

Tizzard then has a horse from his own stable who could possibly deny Cue Card the £1 million bonus. Does he "do a Willie" and switch Thistlecrack to another race at the last minute or does he run both in case Cue Card has a mishap ? Would there be any....erm.... instructions to TS if they were both approaching the line in front, and would TS listen :ninja:

All good fun :whistle:
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thats an unreal..but very likely scenario..brilliant

to me..it would be..does CC truly stay 3m2.5f+ on probably deadish ground at Cheltenham..to be able to reproduce a mid 180's rating which i believe he achieved yesterday..or will mid 170's+ stayer..thistlecrack..be able to jump similar to keep up..and outstay him

a real tough one..but would be mouthwatering to watch..and no Mullins involved:)
 
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EC/Desert Orchid/Suny Bay, have you done a comparison between last years Gold Cup and Coneygree's the year before?

I had last years race five lengths better than Coneygree's when adjusted for the going. I'd be interested in each of your interpretations if you have time.

Despite backing Don Cossack last year, I regard myself a fortunate winner as I'm convinced Cue Card would have won had he stood up, and therefore if I take that line I have to have Cue Card more than five lengths ahead of Coneygree if they both turn up in the Gold Cup in the same form.
 
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Maruco said:
EC/Desert Orchid/Suny Bay, have you done a comparison between last years Gold Cup and Coneygree's the year before?

I had last years race five lengths better than Coneygree's when adjusted for the going. I'd be interested in each of your interpretations if you have time.

Despite backing Don Cossack last year, I regard myself a fortunate winner as I'm convinced Cue Card would have won had he stood up, and therefore if I take that line I have to have Cue Card more than five lengths ahead of Coneygree if they both turn up in the Gold Cup in the same form.
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my view is that last year CC .was a solid 175/177 horse..and Coneygree when won GC..was 178/180 horse..that went against the pro's ratings of low 170's at the time..i might be wrong..we don't know yet

but if yesterdays win is really what i think..then CC is even better than last year..verging on Sprinter Sacre level ..maybe 5 shy of him...at 3 miles..so if my view is correct..he is 5 lengths better than a GC winning Coneygree

i still am not sure about CC with the extra distance..because now..post op..he is SS level nearly at 3 miles..and we all know how many really good 3 milers fail at the cheltenham hill..which CC did not face last year..yep looked to be going great..how many have looked similar?..and failed from 2 out..remember silviano?

CC..post op... this year is the best 3 miler i have seen..full stop..as to 3m2.5 uphill..total guesswork

i'd love to see a re match in the KG..and on yesterdays evidence..as much as i love Coneygree..unless he is better than the 180 i now think he is..he will need a 185 to beat the monster that CC has now turned into..CC has always been extremely good..but he is now in the top 3 chasers of the last 40 years imo..he is up there with SS and KS..and i feel better than Denman
 
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CC would've won by only 5 lengths if Dickie hadn't called game over 2 out on Coneygree. For me, a GC winner is always better than a nose KG winner. I'd like to see another race between them before I start calling CC the better one. Otherwise lets treat CC the same and say Menorah and Irish Cavalier are the best chasers around based on the Charlie Hall performance... And if Don hadn't been injured I doubt anyone would dare give away the title of the best 3 mile chaser around.
 
Thanks EC. We definitely have a differing view of the two Gold Cup's. I had Coneygree at 171 for his, and my rating for Cue Card last year was a notional 176 had he stood up, which is what I gave Don Cossack.

I've done my figures for yesterday and I have CC's run at 172 which is 4lbs shy of what I beleive his Gold Cup run would have been last year. My mark for yesterday is based on a card compared time, but on heavy that can be unreliable, and given Coneygree appeared to blow up, Silviniaco Conti was well below his best, and I can't get a handle on the French horse, I'm not confident. I'll be really interested to see the mark the handicapper gives and his explanation.

DO and Suny, do you have a view?
 
Aughex..CC beat a solid 140 horse 14 seconds..beating it on both circuits by 14 seconds in total..thats not same as he has always been..its way better

believe me..i'm a Coneygree fan....but CC has put in a level not seen at the distance for one long time..ignore him at your peril..a bit like ignoring sprinter sacre minus 5..not recommended pocketwise imo
 
just a question..as my memory isn't what it should be..they said that Coneygree was first novice to win GC since Captain Christy..but i seem to remember Little Owl hadn't had much experience when winning in 81..and he beat some major oppo
 
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I'm not ignoring anything, do you have the sectionals for those 14 seconds? How much lengths do you count for a second on that heavy ground? Coneygree making the pace kinda skews the comparison with any handicapper making the pace in the other race, he's used to going hard in front. What Coneygree lacked yesterday was anaerobic fitness which helps sustain effort at the end of the race. Even if we take the 14 seconds beating of a 140 horse literally without any sectional analysis, then you surely won't put more than 3 lengths per second given the heavy conditions, which puts CC back at his best at 180 which he performed in the KG last year. Even in this best case scenario it doesn't puts him above Don. As for Coneygree, I think we need further evidence to say that CC is the better horse, we need a race fit Coneygree that won't drop out of a 3 mile race like a non-stayer.
 
if you read my post... have stated 3.4lb..or lengths per second

if yesterdays race had been over 2f further..coneygree would not have beat CC

i'll say again..i am a Coneygree fan..and i don't do horse fan bollox..but CC has put in an immense performance yesterday..to ignore it is to turn fandom into blinkered optimism based on nowt bar love for hoss..a bit like football bias towards fav team

i don't do that..i try to be objective...i appreciate horse improvement..and i didn't think CC was able to produce that at his age..but imo he has..best get used to it..he is a machine made of granite to such a level that other granite..just ain't as hard..and it will take some tool to level him at 3 miles..some real tool..is there owt out there that can do that...imo no

3m2.5 uphill..is different test imo
 
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The only question mark against Cue Card for the Gold Cup is age. The stamina issue gets banded about way too much imo. He's more than proved that the reason he wasn't finishing his races was the wind issue rather than a lack of stamina.

For me it's just about taking a view which staying chase form I prefer, the 2015 or 2016 season. I backed Cue Card yesterday because I believe that last seasons form is a good deal stronger than the year Coneygree won the GC and I'll no doubt take a similar view in March unless CC suddenly regresses is the next 4 months. Yes there are other factors at play but they won't have as big an influence on my decision making than that overriding feeling that last seasons staying chasers were a vintage crop.
 
age isn't an issue after yesteday..any horse that can do that needs respect..full stop..we will never know what would have happened had he stood up in teh GC..initially i thought he might get caught out..but on yesterdays performance..i am mystified..mystified in a good way..he is a giant of a horse we only see every now and then..rules as such don't apply...see KS
 
I agree with every word of that Bear. Precisely my thoughts.

Age wasn't an issue yesterday EC. But a word of caution is that age doesn't necessarily wait to catch up between seasons. That's his third run of the season already and it's only November. He's got a King George, a prep, and then the Gold Cup itself. Who knows what happens between now and then.

If he holds his form he wins in my opinion, but it has to catch up at some point. Hopefully it's not this season and we see him win the Gold Cup he very much deserves.
 
One tick in that box is that he was campaigned over shorter for much of his career, so he may have a few less miles on the clock than those who started off in the RSA and have never raced over less than 3 miles since.
 
its a fascinating situation..and one that as a flat follower..i rarely..well never see in that code...i love all these NH animals..they are proper heroes to me..if i owned one of these and owt bad happened i would be gutted totally..i'll have to say that people who own these horses..and run them in hard races..have my utmost respect..because i'm not sure i could if i loved an animal so much to put it in so much danger..all power to these folks and best of luck with whatever they do

we sit in awe really as a armchair punters re HN racing
 
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