The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Desert Orchid said:
I have long suspected the RP office gets 'special' word from certain sources (hence the success of some unfathomable selections for Segal and Kealy among others) so I can't help thinking Nicholls has said more to them than he has in public about SC.

My own gut tells me the same as you, though, Euronymous.
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They get tips like the rest of us but for every Pasternack & Papillion there are probably dozens of rubbish selections.
 
Cue Card is a horse that I have never given enough credit to.

Plenty of horses make mugs out of you for the wrong reasons, with CC its for all the right reasons.

Credit to all
 
Great performance from Cue Card, coneygree went down fighting, tremendous race. Always easier to take a losing bet in circumstances like that.
 
LUKE said:
They get tips like the rest of us but for every Pasternack & Papillion there are probably dozens of rubbish selections.
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Like the rest of us? I wish!

It's true that Segal went through a very long losing spell last year going from over a grand ahead to several hundred down to tenner stakes. But every now and again you just get the feeling that something he's put up has more to it than his own analysis. Not on a day-to-day basis, though.
 
I think Segal and Kealy are both handicap specialists. I listen to the RP Podcast every Friday and some of the latter's analysis of Group races on the flat were abysmal.



I was right beside the winning post at Haydock, fantastic scenes and great to see the real Cue Card in the flesh.
 
tiggers1972 said:
Simple race to read, on a line through Djakadam Coneygree couldn't beat Cue Card. Sometimes we over complicate things.
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but is that reading it correctly?..you are assuming Djack put in the same performance on 7 Apr behind Cue Card as he did behind Coneygree...if that is so... its bang on

but there are 3 reasons i personally don't think the April run was his best.

Djack is past his very best performances in April..as are many horses when they have been aimed at Cheltenham.

Djackadam's form in April reads 222234..and they weren't good places really as he was a contender re the market in most of those runs...i have his IV as just 0.61 in April which tells me he runs below expectation. In March his IV is 1.06...which indicates he runs to and just above expectation...ie behind Coneygree.

His record on sharp tracks like Aintree isn't as good as at Galloping tracks either..0.62 against 1.10.

The break of 20 days between Cheltenham and Aintree wouldn't have suited him either...running within 25 days his form reads 2234...and his IV again is pointing to under performances in those placings when compared to market chance...just 0.55.

i feel that March at Cheltenham...and April at Aintree ..show two different Djackadams tbh.
 
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who is Coneygree doing the anaerobics with? is there a horse in the yard good enough to make him 100% fitness-wise for the first race of the season? I think the simple explanation is that he needed the run and next time he'll be much better. Plus, Dickie basically gave up 2 out and didn't gave him a harder race than necessary. I hope these 2 meet again in the KG and Coneygree puts the record straight.
 
EC1 said:
but is that reading it correctly?..you are assuming Djack put in the same performance on 7 Apr behind Cue Card as he did behind Coneygree...if that is so... its bang on

but there are 3 reasons i personally don't think the April run was his best.

Djack is past his very best performances in April..as are many horses when they have been aimed at Cheltenham.

Djackadam's form in April reads 222234..and they weren't good places really as he was a contender re the market in most of those runs...i have his IV as just 0.61 in April which tells me he runs below expectation. In March his IV is 1.06...which indicates he runs to and just above expectation...ie behind Coneygree.

His record on sharp tracks like Aintree isn't as good as at Galloping tracks either..0.62 against 1.10.

The break of 20 days between Cheltenham and Aintree wouldn't have suited him either...running within 25 days his form reads 2234...and his IV again is pointing to under performances in those placings when compared to market chance...just 0.55.

i feel that March at Cheltenham...and April at Aintree ..show two different Djackadams tbh.
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If he'd have stood up in March it would have been the same. Coneygree, fine animal that he is and I backed him when he won The Gold Cup simply isn't as good as Cue Card. Just think we over analyse things when sometimes it's glaring at you in the face.
 
or someone is over-simplifying them based on unfit horse. Coneygree is a winner of the GC, CC is a winner of the Ryanair and a nose KG. I'd say Coneygree deserves to be forgiven his first run of the season.
 
Chasing a million pound bonus and he was unfit? Funny that nothing was said beforehand, he'll need the run etc. Coneygree had his optimum conditions today.
 
This was 3m around Haydock. Coneygree was always gonna struggle beating an on song Cue Card.
Similar conditions in the Gold Cup maybe slightly different if giving their running.
 
tiggers1972 said:
Chasing a million pound bonus and he was unfit? Funny that nothing was said beforehand, he'll need the run etc. Coneygree had his optimum conditions today.
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There was a comment from Sarah Bradstock in today's RP that Coneygree might be a little bit short of fitness. Bit late for many to mention that though and the headline was that the Bradstocks were confident. Not sure even a peak form Coneygree would have beaten Cue Card today though


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tiggers1972 said:
If he'd have stood up in March it would have been the same. Coneygree, fine animal that he is and I backed him when he won The Gold Cup simply isn't as good as Cue Card. Just think we over analyse things when sometimes it's glaring at you in the face.
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So you blithely accept that Cue Card wasn't fit for his seasonal debut, but Coneygree was for his? On all the evidence CC is the better horse, but nothing would convince me there's actually 15 lengths between them when they're both in top form.
For me - even though I was sure he would be up for this - Coneygree finished like an unfit horse, and the writing was on the wall when a blanket would've covered the field after the first circuit.

To be fair to the Bradstocks, they both said - before the race - that they would've ideally have liked to have given him more than one gallop on grass, and they couldn't be certain of his fitness for that reason.
 
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Ken Pitterson..who is one of the best paddock watchers i've come across..stated on will radio before the race that Coneygree was about 85% ..and he watches horses everyday

I think if anyone judges Coneygree just on that effort..its a bit harsh..and probably not correct based on what Ken said and how Coneygree finished the race off

Yesterday they didn't go as hard as in Coneygree's GC..and he found in that race..yesterday looked totally different at the end.

It may well be that CC can beat him...but i'll bet Coneygree comes on a good bit for that run..if he stays sound is the problem.
 
All well with Coneygree this morning.

Sara Bradstock "He's actually fine. He's surprisingly fresh as a daisy."
 
He's a really good price for the King George now with the potential field lacking depth. However with the bonus out the window now there must be a chance he either goes for the Lexus or waits for the AON.
 
I reckon they'll go to Ireland at Christmas and duck the King George.

There are a number of possibilities that can explain his run yesterday. Not being as fit as Cue Card is the most likely. But it can't be ignored just how good Cue Card was, and even if he was in top form he may not have been good enough.

If you take the last two Gold Cup's literally and assume Cue Card had stood up and finished in a dead heat, on the numbers (back me up EC!), Cue Card in my opinion would have been around 5 lengths ahead of Coneygree. There's some assumption there with where CC would have finished. I'd think he may have won, where others would argue he would have been beaten. Either way I'd contest he'd have been wishing 5 lengths of the winner. In a match in March it would be Cue Card for me and it wouldn't need a moments more thought.

Other explanations for yesterday could be that Coneygree is not quite the same horse, he doesn't act in deep ground, he needs De Boinville, etc. It should also be considered that he could bounce next time. Alternatively he could be absolutely spot on. Given all those variables, for a horse that could go either forwards or backwards at Christmas, and in my opinion is more likely to go to Ireland, 6/1 for the King George is no betting proposition at all, and I'd rather take the price about Cue Card winning the bonus which I'd say is considerably more likely than Coneygree winning at Kempton.
 
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Given the horse's history of injury problems I think there has to be a good chance he'll bounce although I'd love to see him back to his best. I'm sure the Bradstocks were dismayed at the state of the ground yesterday as a slog in deep ground wouldn't have been the ideal comeback.

I'd agree the 10/1 with Betfred and Skybet (the latter don't quote a triple crown price but have Cuee Card to win the KG and GC at 10/1) is tempting although he'll be an 11yo by March
 
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