The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Regardless of current form, previous form, can't have an 11yo winning a CGC in this day and age, I just can't.
 
Doing the full time comparison without sectionals is blinkered analysis but even with that CC proved he's as good as last season, not better. Which means not as good as not-injured Don Cossack. The fact that Dickie stopped riding Coneygree after 2 out means you can't take margins literally. We need to see a race fit Coneygree before we say CC's the better horse.
 
Is about opinions but coming to the last Cue Card was travelling better than Don Cossack when he capsized. We'll never know what would have happened up the hill, but to my eye Cue Card wasn't likely to stop. I say that as a Don Cossack backer and supporter.

If I believe that, which I do, Cue Card is the most likely winner of the Gold Cup. As Roger has said, and has been mentioned previously, age may well become a factor, particularly combined with a busy season. I have to go by what I see though, and if he holds his form I don't see what beats him right now.

Of the young guns there's only Valseur Lido and Thistlecrack putting their hand up. I don't see VL seeing it out off a tough gallop, and I suspect Thistlecrack won't unltimately go for the race. If he did I'd respect his chance as I take a different view to most with regards his jumping last weekend. If he'd been at full racing pace he'd have winged that one along the back instead of making the mistake he did, and at the rest he was either good or clever. He's certainly got the engine to be in with an outstanding chance if his jumping was good enough.

I should also add that I respect Djakadam's chance. He's been placed twice and is still young enough to improve. He's a stonking each way bet, but I just don't see him winning, and he's likely to need even further as he gets older.
 
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good chat either ways guys..this is what the forum does best..an exchange of views without insult..you cnt Aughes:D



obviously just kiddin;)
 
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As I've said before. Trends and stats are always my starting point, but once done I find every reason I can to ignore them. If I cant I use them. At the Festival that approach has paid handsomely. I've only had two losing Festivals since 1999.

What I will also say is that the stats and trends I produce and use aren't the same as those that you see published.
 
Have been looking back at winners aged over 10 in my lifetime

Cottage Rake 11yo 1950
Silver Fame 12yo 1951
Mandarin 11yo 1962
What A Myth 12 1969

So 4 in 19 years then........well nothing actually

Whether or not anyone takes notice of trends, 47 years is too strong a trend to ignore in this case imho
 
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Just taking my ratings from the RP site, I have Coneygree hitting 174p for his Gold Cup and Don Cossack 177 for his.

What that doesn't tell me is how I arrived at the figures as the hard copies I keep have detailed annotations and time ratings. I tend to use the RP as a memory-jogger but when I want to get the big picture I always go back to the hard copy. That way I can get a better idea of whether I should be thinking about revisiting the figures.

Someone said on TV yesterday that Ruby Walsh thought Cue Card would have beaten Djakadam. They didn't say if he said whether he would have beaten Don Cossack.
 
EC1 said:
Ken Pitterson..who is one of the best paddock watchers i've come across..stated on will radio before the race that Coneygree was about 85% ..and he watches horses everyday

I think if anyone judges Coneygree just on that effort..its a bit harsh..and probably not correct based on what Ken said and how Coneygree finished the race off

Yesterday they didn't go as hard as in Coneygree's GC..and he found in that race..yesterday looked totally different at the end.

It may well be that CC can beat him...but i'll bet Coneygree comes on a good bit for that run..if he stays sound is the problem.
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Interesting about Coneygree's fitness. I tried to get a bet on when he touched 11/4 in a place but by the time I logged on it was back to 5/2 so I decided to let it go. It was obviously only going to win (now that we know he wasn't fit) if Cue Card wasn't right. It was still a lastingly impressive performance by Cue Card, though.

Then again, if Coneygree improves for this as much as did Cue Card for Wetherby... :blink::blink::surrender:
 
either ways guys..at this point,,good to exchange views..we all know these animals..and such in future we all should know what suits and don't..lets stick with it..special knowledge is gold at this game
 
Thanks Maurice. I have Don Cossack a pound lower, and Coneygree three pounds lower. I think we both work on a similar basis, so we've taken a slightly different view of Coneygree's win.

Have you done yesterday's race yet?
 
Only a superficial 'suck it and see' calculation based on Vezelay's OR155, which puts Cue Card on 176(+). That looks about right but my gut reckons Vezelay might be better than that given the way he travelled. He was the only other one able to cruise along at the pace just in behind.
 
i'd have to say..if i was to set a NH jig-saw puzzle..this would be the race i picked,,it keeps people looking for the last piece to the last day..and even then..its under the table:D
 
Desert Orchid said:
Only a superficial 'suck it and see' calculation based on Vezelay's OR155, which puts Cue Card on 176(+). That looks about right but my gut reckons Vezelay might be better than that given the way he travelled. He was the only other one able to cruise along at the pace just in behind.
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i'd be checking the time DO..Andrew Mount actually tipped teh 3rd to win..its no mug..the time is out of this world re any other 3m hoss
 
I'll be doing that midweek with the hard copy, EC1, but I noted your circuit-by-circuit comparison with the other race over C&D. Looks compelling. I'll probably work out a going allowance based on the other race and then see how Cue Card and the other races work out by comparison. All the details will end up in my weekly review.
 
Maruco said:
I agree with every word of that Bear. Precisely my thoughts.

Age wasn't an issue yesterday EC. But a word of caution is that age doesn't necessarily wait to catch up between seasons. That's his third run of the season already and it's only November. He's got a King George, a prep, and then the Gold Cup itself. Who knows what happens between now and then.

If he holds his form he wins in my opinion, but it has to catch up at some point. Hopefully it's not this season and we see him win the Gold Cup he very much deserves.
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Tizzard described Cue Card as being like granite after the Betfair, and it's hard to disagree.

Age withers them all eventually, but I can't see him failing to run his race in the Gold Cup - even if he runs a couple more times beforehand. He has had a bit of down-time for one reason or another over the last three years, and there are probably less miles on the clock than 26 starts in steeplechases would imply, and win in the Gold Cup would be a richly-deserved finale, to a career defined largely by excellence.

Regardless of what happens, Cue Card has been an absolute credit to everyone involved with him, and it is next to impossible to think of a better example of everything you would want in a National Hunt horse.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Only a superficial 'suck it and see' calculation based on Vezelay's OR155, which puts Cue Card on 176(+). That looks about right but my gut reckons Vezelay might be better than that given the way he travelled. He was the only other one able to cruise along at the pace just in behind.
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Timeform rated Vezelay 159 in Chasers & Hurdlers, DO, so the Official Rating is probably there or thereabouts....and it might be a wee bit dangerous to over-estimate what he achieved on Saturday.

I think he was slightly flattered by how quickly/tamely SYAM and Irish Cavalier folded, and he was ultimately left-behind a long way, when CC and Coneygree went on in the straight. Vezelay would also have been suited by the very soft ground he encountered, and was match-fit from two previous races at Auteuil. He has probably run right-up to around the best of his French form, but I'm not convinced that there will be a great deal more than that to come.
 
You wonder how we might view Cue Card if his wind problem had have been sorted earlier than the summer of 2015. What if it had been sorted before the 2013 KG? We could have been hailing a three times winner and possibly a two/three time CGC winner. He was often referred to as the "second best chaser in training" in 2013; it's amazing how he maintained, lost and regained that level three seasons later.
 
aye..what a pity that didn't happen..its held his brilliance back..when a horse can be so good with a problem it shows just what an animal he is

i hope he carries on now unbeaten...he is a freak alongside KS and SS..one of the best we have seen..without teh problem..only second to the great one probably
 
Considering the RP standard time is almost 3 secs quicker than the course record, and today's race was slower (relatively) than all 3 chases yesterday, it says little more than we already knew.
For me, he never gained an inch over the obstacles against modest opposition, and still has to prove he can negotiate fences at speed, let alone with a Gold Cup winner either side of him.
 
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