The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Yes Long Run. For perspective Long Run was rated 182 at the time and right on top of his game.

Thistlecrack jumped well in my opinion. He was error free and clever at a couple. The Feltham is the obvious race next and a decision from there on whether to go the novice route or tackle the Gold Cup.

With Cue Card, Native River, and Thistlecrack in different ownership you can easily see all three turning up.
 
is there any doubt he'll go GC route? He jumps well and stays well, thats what they need to know to go for the race. Whether he's good enough remains to be seen but beating mid 130 rivals by 5-10 lengths doesn't do much to his reputation, although his odds continually collapse like he's beating established chasers. People refuse to understand he's in a different discipline altogether and just repeat that he was 174 rated over hurdles. Well that means nothing when you're in a different sport. It could mean you're a 140 flat horse, a 200 rated chaser or it could mean you're capable of running to 60 marks over flat and 150 over fences. I'm impressed with his jumping but he's not in Coneygree's position when he was beating 140 rated novices by half a track.
 
Maruco said:
Yes Long Run. For perspective Long Run was rated 182 at the time and right on top of his game.

How reliable or misleading is the fact that Long Run owns the track record?
I remember that race and he was all out to hold on from the admirable but very limited Burton Port?
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Just checked, LR was giving Burton 10lb.

PS- The above question is mine, I've over edited Maruco's post.
 
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Today's performance was no less than Conegree had done by beating Dell Arca a length in November in the same race Aughex. If anything you'd have to rate it a better performance.

Was that a performance that marks him out as a Gold Cup winner? No. Does it mean we can expect him to step up from that against better opposition? I'd say a definite yes. It was a run full of promise.
 
Euronymous said:
Does the NRNB come in January? If Djakadam is 8/1 plus I will be having a huge each way bet.
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It could end up being the smart play. If they all turn up there will be plenty of pace on which could set it up for a thorough stayer. He'd definitely benefit. I'd prefer him each way though. You can see him ever being the bridesmaid.
 
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Maruco, so do you think Coneygree is at the peak of his fitness for seasonal reappearances? To me that 1 length beating of Dell Arca is in the same category as 15 lengths lose to CC. Thistlecrack now had 3 races, he doesn't have any excuse for being so short for the GC but failing to put that kind of distance like a fully fit Coneygree did prior to his GC attempt.
 
I presume that's tongue in cheek Aughex?

Why did he need to win any further than he did today? He was totally unextended and could have won as far as he liked. I'm not sure what else you could expect from him?
 
expect? nothing, but you took what I said about Coneygree and gave the example of his season start coming back for more than a year after an injury, just like he did against Cue Card(only 2 years older now). TC didn't needed to win by large margin but in comparison with Coneygree at this stage it simply doesn't looks as good as his GC odds, which is fine I'm glad he's making the prices..
 
he wasn't but Coneygree was putting more convincing performances from a bare form perspective, let alone jumping - immaculate.
 
In terms of odds, the decision to run in the Gold Cup was made at the beginning of the week of the Festival. His antepost odds were terrible in those circumstances. I suspect we'll get the same ride with Thistlecrack, and for the same reason his odds are terrible.

I disagree with regards the bare form. It wasn't until Newbury in February you could give Coneygree a chance, and if you go back and look at what he beat before the Festival, and look at that Gold Cup, in retrospect it didn't take huge amount of winning. It was probably the weakest since War of Attrition.

if Thistlecrack goes the Gold Cup route I suspect this one will be much hotter and harder to win. And the same is true for Coneygree. Even if he's back to his absolute best I wouldn't see him winning it assuming they all turn up. A fully fit Don Cossack (which is highly unlikely), would serve him his ass. And just like Haydock Cue Card will beat him easily.
 
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I'll be shot down for this, but place finishers are so often thorough stayers who keep finding. On that basis Native River can't be ignored as an each way bet at the 25's still available. I can only see three ahead of him in the market that will definitely run, barring injury, that have proven they stay the Gold Cup trip at Cheltenham.
 
One more thing to add. I suspect one of More of That or Minella Rocco will enter the picture for this at some point. If I knew which one I'd take a little bit each way. We'll have no idea which one is being handicapped for the Festival Chase until their next runs though!
 
Maruco said:
Yes Long Run. For perspective Long Run was rated 182 at the time and right on top of his game.

Thistlecrack jumped well in my opinion. He was error free and clever at a couple. The Feltham is the obvious race next and a decision from there on whether to go the novice route or tackle the Gold Cup.

With Cue Card, Native River, and Thistlecrack in different ownership you can easily see all three turning up.
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From another perspective, today's time was 4.55 above standard, yesterday's 3 chases were respectively : +0.45, +2.20 and +4.8 - today's Hennessy 6 secs under.
Thistlecrack undoubtedly has a gd1 engine and jumps fences well against mediocre opposition. Nowhere has he yet shown he can negotiate fences at championship pace, let alone be Gold Cup fav.
 
Coneygree's t/s figures for his first 3 races; 127; 128; 152.
Thistlecrack;........................................... 66;69; ? (probably less than 3 figures).

Make your own interpretation.
 
I'd imagine Coneygree will be given a topspeed figures in the high 120's or low 130's for that unextended win yesterday, certainly not less than three figures, so I'm not sure I'd be taking too much notice of Thislecrack's first two topspeed figures in what we're nothing more than schooling exercises. The relevance of topspeed figures won't be shown until January or February unless Thistlecrack does something extraordinary at Kempton.

As those figures for Coneygree point out he took a massive leap forward at Newbury in February, and Thistlecrack will have to prove he can do the same somewhere in open company. Presumably he will either prep in the same race as Coneygree or at the end of January at Cheltenham. Either way we should get a good comparison pre-Festival.

Presumably the handicapper will give him a mark now and it'll be interesting to see his interpretation.
 
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Maruco said:
I'll be shot down for this, but place finishers are so often thorough stayers who keep finding. On that basis Native River can't be ignored as an each way bet at the 25's still available. I can only see three ahead of him in the market that will definitely run, barring injury, that have proven they stay the Gold Cup trip at Cheltenham.
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I'd question that rather than shoot you down. I personally would struggle to back a horse that didn't have the pace to win the 4 miler. But you obviously like the form from that race given that you also think Minella Rocco could enter the frame. I can't personally remember a true GC contender ever emerging from the NH Chase though.
 
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