The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

If Cooper is right and Don Cossack is on his way back then he's a stonking EW bet at 12/1

200 at evens 400 Thistlecrack

Or Don Cossack 100 ew at 12/1 1/4 odds 400 but with a possibility of picking up another 1300

I fancy the latter because Don Cossack was injured in April but was back by October his scans showing no issues. That was a 6 month break

The fact he has not run might worry some but not me...............There is no reason to rush him. The more time they give the injury the better and he has won first time out for the last 4 seasons

Like Faugheen I believe this has been the plan all along 1 run then straight to Cheltenham. It is sensible and all that is required for horses that they can get near to 100% at home.
 
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Friends, Romans, countrymen, I come to bury Thistlecrack, not to praise him.

I've done some figures - as with the Christmas Hurdle they're only provisional - but the King George form doesn't add up to much.

I'm in a seriously good mood these days, by the way, so it isn't anything psychological affecting my assessments. I'm just taking things at face value.

What does the King George form really amount to?

A simplistic time comparison with the Feltham suggests it wasn't great. It was just 0.7s faster than the novices' race, albeit they carried 3lbs more, but Might Bite was at least 16 lengths clear and pulling away when Jacob tried to feed him the final fence. A 16 length win would have see him record a faster time by a couple of seconds. Thistlecrack was eased maybe three or four lengths after the last, which would have closed it.

Sectionals might paint a different picture. Maybe the KIng George went much faster in the middle stages but I'd be pretty confident that the King George field, including Thistlecrack, was slowing up from three out.

Allowing Josses Hill the same mark as in the Peterborough - is that being generous? - only puts Thistlecrack on 168, say 171 to allow for being eased. I'm not sure that is going to be good enough in the Gold Cup.

It puts him alongside Dynaste's best, to put things into perspective....
 
Geezus DO did you enjoy your holiday......you are like 2 decades behind what was said by yours truly right after the race............you been on the sauce?
 
Tanlic said:
Geezus DO did you enjoy your holiday......you are like 2 decades behind what was said by yours truly right after the race............you been on the sauce?
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Indeed I did/am, Tanlic. So much so that I haven't really been following the thread. Obviously a healthy marinade of various wines, spirits and beers has facilitated an invaluable gift of telepathy :)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Friends, Romans, countrymen, I come to bury Thistlecrack, not to praise him.

I've done some figures - as with the Christmas Hurdle they're only provisional - but the King George form doesn't add up to much.

I'm in a seriously good mood these days, by the way, so it isn't anything psychological affecting my assessments. I'm just taking things at face value.

What does the King George form really amount to?

A simplistic time comparison with the Feltham suggests it wasn't great. It was just 0.7s faster than the novices' race, albeit they carried 3lbs more, but Might Bite was at least 16 lengths clear and pulling away when Jacob tried to feed him the final fence. A 16 length win would have see him record a faster time by a couple of seconds. Thistlecrack was eased maybe three or four lengths after the last, which would have closed it.

Sectionals might paint a different picture. Maybe the KIng George went much faster in the middle stages but I'd be pretty confident that the King George field, including Thistlecrack, was slowing up from three out.

Allowing Josses Hill the same mark as in the Peterborough - is that being generous? - only puts Thistlecrack on 168, say 171 to allow for being eased. I'm not sure that is going to be good enough in the Gold Cup.

It puts him alongside Dynaste's best, to put things into perspective....
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sectionals reads bad

https://www.timeform.com/horse-raci...nal-debrief-kempton-and-leopardstown-29122016



I think you are too generous
I am goin 162p for Boxing Day nce


I was a huge fan of Thistle as hurdler and is a very good novice chaser
but at current prices is a lay for the Gold Cup.
 
Thistlecrack won as he liked guys. How is he a lay? Would he have needed to win by 30 lengths plus? Time is important, as are sectionals, but there's no way you would have him as a lay or an unlikely winner after that, just that this performance wouldn't have won a Gold Cup. It didn't need to, but I suspect he's capable of much more still.

As it happens I rate the race almost identically to DO, but with a p+, and I reckon he's more than capable of putting up a performance in the high 170's come March.
 
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Maruco said:
Thistlecrack won as he liked guys. How is he a lay? Would he have needed to win by 30 lengths plus? Time is important, as are sectionals, but there's no way you would have him as a lay or an unlikely winner after that, just that this performance wouldn't have won a Gold Cup. It didn't need to, but I suspect he's capable of much more still.

As it happens I rate the race almost identically to DO, but with a p+, and I reckon he's more than capable of putting up a performance in the high 170's come March.
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I'll almost certainly have a '+p' for him too but I'm just saying the overall form is moderate. I don't really believe he 'won as he liked'. He was eased down, sure, but he had pretty much run his race by then, having secured a gap back to the chasers but not extending it despite being ridden out and their being all out. Might Bite, on the other hand, was still putting distance between himself and the others at the last.

Come March, a performance in the high 170s might not be good enough.
 
I'm not sure whether anything will line up that's capable of putting up a performance in the 180's though DO. Don Cossack at his best maybe, but not with so long out. Nothing else can. It would take an unexposed one and I don't see anything.
 
You could cobble together an argument for Minella Rocco doing something based on the 4 miler form that just keeps on giving. Would have had to have come back properly from that horrific fall at Aintree mind....
 
Maruco said:
Thistlecrack won as he liked guys. How is he a lay? Would he have needed to win by 30 lengths plus? Time is important, as are sectionals, but there's no way you would have him as a lay or an unlikely winner
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I think Cue Card is too old and regressing, haydock race form is doubtful , with coneygree coming after a long lay off and french horse close.

about the king George, bad time, small field , cue card underperforming, silvianco is not the horse he was, tea for three so close after a slow start and josses hill likely non stayer.

thistle won well , could have won by 3 o 4 more lengths, he is a lay because of the price he is, 5/4 at this stage is clearly ridículous for a Gold cup and will be a similar if not bigger price on the day.

he was a true champion hurdler and is an exciting chasing prospect but what he will face a much tougher task in a bigger field with the irish horses coming.
 
sunybay said:
I think Cue Card is too old and regressing, haydock race form is doubtful , with coneygree coming after a long lay off and french horse close.

about the king George, bad time, small field , cue card underperforming, silvianco is not the horse he was, tea for three so close after a slow start and josses hill likely non stayer.

thistle won well , could have won by 3 o 4 more lengths, he is a lay because of the price he is, 5/4 at this stage is clearly ridículous for a Gold cup and will be a similar if not bigger price on the day.

he was a true champion hurdler and is an exciting chasing prospect but what he will face a much tougher task in a bigger field with the irish horses coming.
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Perfectly put Suny and welcome to reality guys.... I reckon Suny is spot on in his analysis
 
Tizzard's French import Alary has been backed into 25/1 today - most likely on the back of the Coneygree news.

In a way, it makes a degree of sense, as he would notionally be the least-exposed of the outers.

FWIW, Alary was rated 156 in Chasers & Hurdlers, and - at face value - would need to find plenty of improvement, to be troubling the places in even a potentially-weakened Gold Cup. Whilst he has been broadly consistent throughout his career, he is a bit of a nearly horse (has not yet won beyond Listed-level over Jumps in France), and he may be no better than smart. And a record of 2 Wins from 13 Chase starts, suggests he is hard to win with at the best of times, let alone in the very-highest Grade.

There is surely some value to be had amongst the outers, given the Don's participation (brighter than Coneygree's ever was) is not entirely certain. I'm just not convinced Alary is where it's to be found. I'd rather go with Empire Of Dirt at 50/1, who absolutely hacked-up in the Troytown, and still looks progressive from a mark of 160. He is only quoted in a few places, so it's possible another target has been confirmed?
 
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Saw an interview with Colin Tizzard a couple of days ago who sid he had asked Phil Smith about this horse before buying it for Potts.As it happened Phil Smith was due to meet with the French handicapper the next day after which he rang Colin and advised to buy it. FWIW between them they reckoned it would finish third in this year's Gold Cup.
 
Elliott was quoted after the Troytown as saying the National is the long term plan Grass, that he wouldn't have many runs before that and could run over hurdles as part of the preparation.

That doesn't rule out a Gold Cup run of course, especially as the weights will have been published by then but it sort of tempers enthusiasm - if you're the type that takes a trainers word as gospel :ninja:

FWIW I think he'd have great place prospects too but wouldn't look any further for Aintree at this early stage.
 
That rings a vague bell, Lee.....which makes sense, as it appears I backed the horse for Aintree on the morning of 2nd January.
 
What's the likelihood of Don Poli running in this? Is he likely to miss it and go straight to the national?

If not surely 33s and saw 40s last week, massive each way value if the horse turns up.
 
Think I read that he is an intended runner in the Irish Gold Cup

Someone is backing him anyway - granted he will have plenty of followers with the Final Furlong pod guys basking at his feet
 
They're not still rattling-on about 'The Polinator' are they?

You'd think they would have learned by now.
 
Grasshopper said:
Don Poli is 25/1 in one place (Coral), and as short as 14/1 (BetStars).
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33s with bet365 this morning (could have changed mind) and 40/1 with betfair last week.

Might stick a few quid each way on him. Backed him every month for national at 25s, 16s most places now I think.

Surely if Thistlecrack stands he wins this now, failing to see what could beat him. Only Cossack who quite possibly may not be the same horse again.
 
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